Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 281156
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
755 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAY 29 2017 - 00Z MON JUN 05 2017

LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK`S SURFACE FORECAST.  INITIALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE
EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TRADE FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AND A GREATER THAN AVERAGE LAND/SEA BREEZE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.  SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING TRADES BACK TO MODERATE-BRISK LEVELS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR TRADES TO WEAKEN A LITTLE.  WITH
THE STRONGER TRADE FLOW EXPECT A RETURN TO GENERALLY WINDWARD
FOCUSED RAINFALL, BUT WITH AMOUNTS TENDING TO BE IN THE LIGHTER
HALF OF THE SPECTRUM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WITHIN A
STANDARD DEVIATION EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.  A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ISLANDS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
GUIDANCE IS MORE AGREEABLE REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE FEATURE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, CLUSTERING MORE CLOSELY TO YESTERDAY`S
GFS/GEFS/UKMET THAT WERE IN THE SLOWER GROUP OF SOLUTIONS.

RAUSCH

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