Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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171
FXHW01 KWNH 161214
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
714 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

VALID 00Z WED JAN 17 2018 - 00Z WED JAN 24 2018

UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS OVER HAWAI`I AS ONE TROUGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES
EASTWARD THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED BUT GENERALLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS A SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG 35N.
THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TRADES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DECREASE STARTING THIS WEEKEND. WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (WITH SOME LEEWARD SPILLOVER) OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW DIPPING BELOW 40N NEAR
170W. THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS HAWAI`I BUT MAINTAIN A
WINDWARD TRADE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS.


FRACASSO


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