Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 031210
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
809 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 00Z FRI SEP 11 2015

OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS WHILE HURRICANE JIMENA,
CURRENTLY ABOUT 12 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND,
SHOULD PROCEED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  CONSULT CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING IGNACIO AND JIMENA.

A LINGERING BAND OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF IGNACIO, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES, MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND.  BY NEXT
MON-WED MOST OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A DIURNAL AND POSSIBLY SEA/LAND
BREEZE COMPONENT.

THE TRACK OF JIMENA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND BEYOND.  AFTER TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO DAY 5 TUE,
MOST GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO EVOLVE IN SUCH A
WAY AS TO BRING JIMENA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS.  CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A SPECIFIC SOLUTION AS THE
00Z ECMWF MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS THAT REACH CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS WHILE THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HOLDS THE SYSTEM AT LEAST
AS FAR BACK IF NOT TO A GREATER EXTENT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF RUN.
WOULD RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS IF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS REQUIRED.

RAUSCH

$$




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