Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 101857
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID JUL 10/1200 UTC THRU JUL 14/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

==============================================
12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES
==============================================
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.
==============================================

...DEEP CYCLONE TO INFLUENCE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z UKMET SLOWED ITS UPPER AIR SOLUTION TO JOIN A GROWING
CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS NOT AN OUTLIER...BUT IT HAS TENDED TO LAG
BEHIND IN DROPPING THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 2/3. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH SOME AIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL MORE LIKELY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTHWARD TO THE EXTENT DEPICTED IN THE OTHER MODELS. AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY...850 MB
TEMPERATURE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN
RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND DIP TO MINUS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE TROUGH INTENSIFYING NEAR THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER.


...EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE RIO GRANDE BASIN TOWARD ARIZONA...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THIS MEDIUM WAVELENGTH INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
STEADILY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THERE ARE FEW LARGE SCALE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
IN THE NAM DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE RELATIVE TO
CONSENSUS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO COLORADO.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A DAY 3 POSITION NEAR THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z UKMET ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS IDEA...WHILE
THE 12Z ECMWF HELD ONTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH.
SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS VARIATION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS APPEAR EQUALLY VALID EXCEPT FOR THE SLOWER
OUTLYING CANADIAN.


...TROUGH LIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THIS FEATURE REMAINS RELEVANT PERHAPS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THROUGH THAT TIME THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BURKE
$$





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