Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 301845
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 30 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH AREAS OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF MAINE, SUN, NOV 2.

HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA, SUN, NOV 2.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MON, NOV 3.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TUE-WED, NOV 4-5.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SUN-WED, NOV 2-5.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST,
SUN-MON, NOV 2-3.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, SUN-MON, NOV 2-3.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MON-TUE, NOV
3-4.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, SUN-MON, NOV 2-3.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA, SUN-TUE, NOV 2-4.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WEST COASTAL ALASKA, WED-THU, NOV 5-6.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, WED-THU, NOV 5-6.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY NOVEMBER 02 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 06: LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW (IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF MAINE SUN. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER ADDITIONAL SECTIONS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY
PRECLUDES EXPANDING THE HAZARD AREA. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10-12
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND
SOUTHEAST SUN-MON. IN ADDITION, HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST SUN-MON.



LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEADS TO HEAVY SNOW (IN EXCESS OF 4
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA SUN.
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO
HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON, AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TUE-WED.



ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LEADING TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION (RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) SUN-WED, AND HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE REGION MON-TUE.



AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA,
ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NORTH
SLOPE OF ALASKA. HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS
OF THE ALEUTIANS SUN-MON, AND AGAIN WED-THUR. HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30
KNOTS) ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL SECTION OF WESTERN ALASKA WED-THU.
SIGNIFICANT WAVES (GREATER THAN 20 FEET) ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS WED-THU. HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA SUN-TUE.



HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON MON-TUE LEADS TO DOWNSLOPING,
OFF-SHORE FLOW. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A
HAZARD.

FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 07 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13: A LOW AMPLITUDE, MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WHICH SUGGESTS THE AIR
MASSES OVER THE COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. NO HAZARD AREAS CAN
CURRENTLY RELIABLY BE SPECIFIED.



THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED OCTOBER 28, SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE DROUGHT, FROM 18.04% TO 18.01%. THERE IS ALSO
THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF AREAL EXTENT WITHOUT ANY LEVEL OF DRYNESS SINCE DECEMBER
2011.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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