Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 291756
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 29 2015

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE BROOKS RANGE OF ALASKA
BY JUN 1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST IS FORECAST
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.



HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, MON, JUN 1.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WED,
JUN 3.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR INTERIOR EASTERN ALASKA NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE,
MON, JUN 1.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR INTERIOR EASTERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE,
MON-FRI, JUN 1-JUN 5.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, IMMINENT, OR OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY JUNE 01 - FRIDAY JUNE 05: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) IS EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC JUN 1. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD
OVER THIS REGION BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD AT THE CURRENT TIME. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER FLORIDA JUN 3-4. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK EASTERLY WAVE COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND A HAZARD SHAPE IS NOT CURRENTLY SPECIFIED. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BUT EXACT LOCATIONS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE AT THE PRESENT TIME.



LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS LEADS TO HEAVY
RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JUN 3. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THESE
REGIONS BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD SHAPE AT THE CURRENT TIME.



IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. WINDY, DRY
CONDITIONS LEAD TO CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE JUN
1, AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE JUN 1-JUN 5.



NUMEROUS AREAS OF POSSIBLE, LIKELY, IMMINENT, AND OCCURRING FLOODING ARE
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, WITH ALL THE
HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED IN RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS. TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST,
DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE U.S.,
PLEASE CONSULT THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC) HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.

FOR SATURDAY JUNE 06 - FRIDAY JUNE 12: THE EXPECTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 FEATURES A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK TROUGHS NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND OHIO VALLEY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS. WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MAY 28TH, INDICATES A DECREASE
(FROM 15.16 TO 14.20) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D2-D4). THIS REPRESENTS THE SMALLEST AREAL COVERAGE OF D2-D4 SINCE
MARCH 2011.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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