Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 062018
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 06 2015

SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE REAR SIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAR 11. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS MAR 9 AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA MAR 12-13. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA MAR 9-13. DURING WEEK 2, AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MON-FRI, MAR 9-13.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON, WED, MAR 11.

HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WED MAR 11.

PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA,
THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, MON-FRI, MAR 9-13.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, MON-TUE, MAR 9-10.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA,
MON-FRI, MAR 9-13.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, FRI, MAR 13.

FLOODING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FLOODING ONGOING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TUE-FRI, MAR 17-20.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST, SAT-FRI, MAR 14-20.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, SAT, MAR 14.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
ALASKA, SAT-SUN, MAR 14-15.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY MARCH 09 - FRIDAY MARCH 13: AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST, A MOIST RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUN A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LEADS TO HEAVY RAIN (IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAR 9-13. THIS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD, BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL HAZARD SHAPES AT THIS
TIME. THIS PRECIPITATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT LEADS TO LIKELY RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND IMMINENT FLOODING FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSES HEAVY RAIN (IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON, AND HIGH WINDS
(IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) FOR COASTAL SECTION OF WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MAR 11.



AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF
OF ALASKA. PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE MON-FRI. IN ADDITION, SIGNIFICANT WAVES (IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET)
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS MAR 9-10. HEAVY PRECIPITATION (RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST, SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
IN 24 HOURS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
MAR 13. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA LEADS TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (20-30 DEGREE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA MAR 9-13.

FOR SATURDAY MARCH 14 - FRIDAY MARCH 20: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS  OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAR 17-20 DUE TO
AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ALSO LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST MAR 14-20.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST MAR 14.



UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA MAR 14-15.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MARCH 3, 2015, INDICATES A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO
D4) IN THE PAST WEEK FROM 16.42 TO 15.66 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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