Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 232039
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 23 2017

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK PERIOD, A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED
TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, FOLLOWED BY COAST-TO-COAST SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, REINFORCING THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE. SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ALASKA DURING THE
3-7 DAY PERIOD.

HAZARDS

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF BOTH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE ROCKIES, THU-SAT, JAN 26-28.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION (GENERALLY COASTAL RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW) FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THU-SAT, JAN
26-28.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, LIKELY, OR IMMINENT/OCCURRING NEAR PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST, EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON, MUCH OF
NEVADA, UTAH, AND RELATIVELY SMALL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES, TUE-WED, JAN
31-FEB 1.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EASTERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, TUE-WED, JAN 31-FEB 1.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, GREAT PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
NORTHEAST, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 26 - MONDAY JANUARY 30: A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY
COAST-TO-COAST HIGH PRESSURE. DURING THE ENSUING 3-4 DAYS, FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PREDICTED TO BRING LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
SQUALLS TO TYPICAL DOWNWIND AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH NOTHING UNUSUALLY
HEAVY IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS OF THE CONUS, DRY
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORS WIDESPREAD DRYNESS. A FEW MINOR
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.50-INCH ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.



FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE ROCKIES, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 12-16 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL, BETWEEN
JANUARY 26-28.



IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA COAST (AT
LEAST 1.5-2.0 INCHES PER 24-HOUR PERIOD), BETWEEN THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
KETCHIKAN (FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE). WINDSWEPT RAIN AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND SNOW FOR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 31 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 06: ACCORDING TO THE GEFS CALIBRATED
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES OUTLOOK (PEO) TOOL, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20-PERCENT) OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES FROM JAN 31-FEB 1. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EASTERN
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE AREAS CORRESPOND TO WHERE THE GEFS
PREDICTS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL FALL WITHIN THE LOWEST 15 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION. THE COLDER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

$$



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