Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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000
FONT12 KNHC 280231
PWSAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   2(13)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   2(18)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   1(15)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   3(16)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   1(16)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   2(21)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   9(20)   1(21)   2(23)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   8(24)   2(26)   2(28)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)   6(24)   1(25)   1(26)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   6(20)   7(27)   1(28)   1(29)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   6( 6)  11(17)   8(25)   6(31)   1(32)   X(32)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   8( 8)  16(24)   8(32)   4(36)   1(37)   1(38)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X  11(11)  24(35)   6(41)   3(44)   1(45)   X(45)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   9( 9)  21(30)   5(35)   3(38)   X(38)   1(39)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   6( 6)  14(20)   6(26)   3(29)   X(29)   1(30)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   1(14)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   1(13)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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