Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 300223
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT AUG 30 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AND AN UPSTREAM MID-UPPER TROUGH
AFFORDS AMPLE LIFT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
WANE AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS MOST.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES AND INSTABILITY DECREASES.  WHILE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL OCCUR RESULTING IN RUNOFF PROBLEMS...THE
HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

...LOUISIANA/TEXAS COASTS...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE LOWER TX
COAST HAS DIMINISHED...WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH RESPECT TO
ANY FURTHER RE-DVELOPMENT.  SOME OF THE HI-RES MEMBERS SHOW
CONVECTION RE-FIRING LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE.  THERE IS A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LA/UPPER TX
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...MANY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
MEMBERS SHOW AN AXIS OF VERY HEAVY RAINS CENTERING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LA....INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR -- WHICH
SHOW SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4-6+ INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK.   WHILE THE
LATEST FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THIS
REGION...LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WERE TO OCCUR.

PEREIRA
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