Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 271433
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1032 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

...VALID 15Z THU JUL 27 2017 - 12Z FRI JUL 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE DGW 15 ENE DRC 30 N TMH 40 NW GCC MLS 25 SW GDV
25 NW BHK 30 WSW 2WX 35 S CUT 35 ENE DGW.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ENE DAB 20 W OCF 25 SSW 40J 20 WSW VDI 15 NW NBC 65 SE CHS.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNE MMHO 35 S OLS 40 NNE FHU 55 E IWA 10 N INW 35 N RQE
30 WSW TEX 20 SSE ASE 15 SSW PUM 35 E DEN 50 NNE EHA 50 S DDC
15 N AVK 35 ESE P28 15 NW WLD 35 SW EMP 20 NNW EMP TOP 15 NE MKC
25 N SZL 30 NNE COU 25 N SET TAZ 15 E DEC 10 E LAF 20 ENE FWA
15 W MFD 30 S HLG 15 S W99 30 N LYH 20 WSW MWK 20 NE AVL 1A5
45 NW CHA 25 W 1M4 35 SSE SGT 10 WSW RUE 15 NW RKR CHK 30 S PPA
45 W AMA 50 WSW CVS 45 WSW ATS 20 SW LRU 90 SE DUG 145 SE DUG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE HNB 10 SW GEZ 30 WSW AOH OSU 25 S ZZV 10 SE W22 15 NE LWB
10 S MKJ 15 WNW TRI 25 NNE LOZ 30 SW EKQ 10 SW BNA 35 NNW MSL
20 NW TUP UTA 30 SSE M19 25 SSE HRO 25 ESE ASG 10 WNW GMJ PPF
25 SSE EMP 15 NNW UKL 10 SW IXD 35 SW SZL 30 W AIZ 15 N TBN
40 W FAM 25 SSW MWA 10 SE HNB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E SPD 15 S EHA 30 NNE DUX 40 WSW DHT 40 WSW TCC 30 ENE SRR
20 SSW SRR 50 WNW SRR 25 SW SAF 30 WSW AEG 25 NNW TCS 30 N SVC
50 SE SOW SOW 35 ESE SJN 25 NW GNT 4SL 25 NNE 4SL 40 WSW E33
20 N DRO 35 E TEX 20 ENE CPW 20 W VTP 20 W AFF 30 SE PUB
30 SE LHX 25 E SPD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ENE SSI 25 SSE SSI 20 NNW JAX 10 S AYS 15 S VDI 20 WNW SAV
15 S HXD 40 ENE SSI.



...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHILE SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES (2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT  MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
ALSO...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ATTAINING A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION...FURTHER RAISING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.  WHILE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER
TOTALS.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
OH AND TN VALLEYS.  MEANWHILE...FURTHER TO THE EAST THERE IS A
MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPSTREAM
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THE MORNIGN UPDATE ADJUSTED FOR RECENT TRENDS AND THE CURRENT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND GRAPHIC IN SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO.

...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  POST-FRONTAL EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY MOVING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION.  FURTHER WEST...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LOW LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INTERACTING WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXTEND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ.

...SOUTHEAST COAST...

MODELS SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POOL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE GA/NORTHERN FL COAST THIS PERIOD.  HEAVY
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AREA AND SLOW MOTIONS IN SOUTHEAST
GA HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN
GRAPHIC/DISCUSSION.  IN RESPONSE THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK.  SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WITH REMNANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE.  THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AFFORDED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MT AND EASTERN WY. MULTIPLE HIGH RES WINDOW RUNS SHOW 1.5-2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN ISOLATED STORMS.

PETERSEN/PEREIRA

$$




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