Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 011849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 02/0000 UTC THRU FEB 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THIS PERIOD
ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION..WITH ALL PROGRESSING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT H5 TROF AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THRU ESPECIALLY THE TN AND OH VALLEYS..THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.  STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE
UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES..WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AGAIN NOTED
WITH THE QPF AXES IN THE MODELS.   THIS IS STILL LEADING TO AN
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.   PLEASE SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.  FARTHER SOUTH..A
COMBINATON OF SOME HEIGHT FALLS..WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JETS AND
SOME HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT INLAND FROM THE GULF SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME MODERATE RAINS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A COUPLE OF H5 S/WVS WEAKENING THRU THE FLAT H5 RIDGE INTO THIS
REGION..ALONG WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND EACH S/WV..SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWESTERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD.  THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE TERRAIN ENHANCED WITH ESPECIALLY THE PERIODIC LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST..WITH THE HEAVIEST
OF TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN OR AND NORTHWESTERN CA WHERE
SOME HIGHER PWS GET BRIEFLY PULLED INLAND.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 461623 465628 470635 475642 477647 478654 481681 478701
      470739 460776 456783 455793 450813 445858 445863 444866
      441875 435893 428909 424918 419926 416931 412938 407946
      403954 398959 393961 391959 388959 386956 382954 379950
      375945 373941 373936 373930 371925 371913 371893 370886
      367883 362881 358881 346889 339895 334900 323913 318918
      312924 293946 284957 279966 276974 270988 266997 265000
      266004 271042 274049 277055 277061 275063 269068 252070
      247068 244066 237062 225054
 0.01 406641 400646 394649 392652 386660 380667 374671 367678
      355690 349696 343703 329715 311738 290769 280783 272805
      267817 264835 260854 260869 258879 252897 250899 240936
      237949 236957 230955
 0.01 533233 543189 544182 545180 546169 544159 540148 537144
      534141 531140 528140 527137 525133 521125 520122 516121
      514124 514132 515140 516148 515151 513150 501143 495137
      490131 482126 478126 475123 475118 476112 477108 477103
      475096 473091 471090 465097 463099 459101 455098 453095
      448092 438093 427086 424089 424093 427096 428100 422103
      419111 416114 414115 412113 409103 407102 407105 406117
      408121 412122 414121 419122 419126 419132 418142 416155
      416160 418163 424177 425183 423188 418194 414200 412205
      413210 413217 407224 403227 399229 398232 396236 396241
      399249 401251 405254 412258 421258 428257 442257 447259
      450262 456267 466279 471286 477293 482297 490300 498300
      504297 508291 513286 517278 521266 525257 527253 528247
 0.01 508102 509094 507084 505075 502067 498054 492038 480012
      477007 474000 471993 469984 466969 464966 462968 457971
      453978 453988 453993 455997 455000 456003 463017 459023
      459028 460033 462040 464047 467063 481087 486093 489098
      493104 498109 501112 505111 508102
 0.01 481887 481872 480857 479852 478847 475843 471843 470848
      466850 463853 462856 465864 469873 471880 469885 470892
      472896 473897 475892 477890 480889 481887
 0.01 464204 464201 463199 463198 463196 463194 463191 461193
      461195 461198 461200 461202 462203 463204 464204
 0.01 441134 443131 442128 440125 435123 432126 430128 427132
      425136 423143 423146 426148 428147 429144 432140 434136
      438135 441134
 0.01 426063 425058 421057 418059 412058 406053 397055 391061
      389063 388070 390073 394075 401078 411078 415077 418074
      423065 426063
 0.25 529199 529194 527188 529184 528179 525175 523175 523179
      522183 519184 517185 517188 519191 521194 524198 527202
      529199
 0.25 485217 486210 484207 481207 471211 466211 460210 450211
      440214 436214 428212 425210 424218 421224 417228 413229
      408233 406239 408244 411248 418251 424251 429250 438248
      448244 468240 471237 467232 466229 469226 472227 471232
      472236 477235 479234 481231 479221 485217
 0.25 482163 482158 480156 474151 465143 458143 454148 452150
      448150 441151 440152 437156 438161 444174 444177 441180
      439184 440189 442191 446192 451193 455190 459185 464180
      465178 465172 471169 476165 482163
 0.25 483138 483135 482135 481133 480132 479132 478131 476131
      475131 474131 473133 473136 474137 475138 477139 479139
      480139 482138 483138
 0.25 462676 462668 461663 459656 456652 453648 448646 438646
      430646 425647 418649 409655 401662 390674 376689 351714
      328742 316761 311778 315792 319802 317807 304808 296816
      290826 285842 281856 278869 279884 289874 295854 296844
      304837 308848 315855 325859 328870 326878 325883 328884
      339877 355863 370850 384844 388842 394840 400840 405841
      408844 413854 417859 420859 423858 426855 432845 435835
      438824 440812 443800 445787 450768 453754 455742 457728
      458715 460691 462676
 0.25 465169 465166 464166 462164 461163 459163 457164 457165
      455166 454167 454169 455171 455172 456172 458173 460173
      460172 462172 463171 463170 465169
 0.25 448112 446106 442104 437103 432104 428104 424105 424110
      427115 430118 432118 436115 440114 445114 448112
 0.25 411070 410068 408067 407066 405067 406070 408071 410071
      411070
 0.25 227040 231047 233050 237052 242053 246056 250058 253060
      257059 261056 262054 262047 261037 261027 262017 263011
      262004 256988 253978 250970 248967 245969 240976 237978
      235983 234993 234004 233013 231020 228026
 0.50 468217 466215 462214 456215 444216 431217 426220 424223
      425227 425232 421232 415232 413234 410238 412242 414245
      420248 427247 438243 442240 443232 446228 452225 459225
      464224 468217
 0.50 460180 459179 457179 455181 454181 455183 457183 458182
      459181 460180
 0.50 453671 451664 447657 440656 433656 424658 417661 403671
      394680 384690 373701 363711 348728 334744 326755 322763
      326769 339768 347763 359756 367752 374752 379760 382772
      382781 378788 372795 364804 355812 346816 340821 336825
      331830 329833 329839 332844 336849 340856 342866 345863
      346860 349853 359842 369834 379824 386821 395819 403818
      412819 418820 426818 430812 433804 435795 436787 441769
      445755 447745 447736 447723 446715 448699 451686 452678
      453671
 0.50 257031 258018 258011 253008 254996 251991 248987 243984
      240986 239993 239001 241016 238029 238041 240046 245049
      252050 255045 257031
 1.00 434222 432221 431221 430221 430223 432224 434222
 1.00 433681 433679 432679 431679 429680 428681 427681 427683
      426685 426686 428687 430687 432685 432684 433683 433681
 1.00 425242 424241 423239 422238 421238 419237 418236 417237
      417239 419241 420241 422242 424242 425242
 1.00 426700 424693 420690 411690 400695 390702 381708 372715
      365723 362726 357730 350738 347743 345745 347748 352746
      356743 365736 374730 380728 386729 390732 392739 395745
      398749 401753 404754 407753 412750 416746 421736 422730
      421720 426700
 1.50 413703 412700 410699 409700 407703 406705 405708 403712
      402715 403720 405722 408722 410720 411716 411713 412709
      413706 413703

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.