Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES

ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU AND INTO PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE PCPN
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE GREAT
BASIN CLOSED LOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW.  LOW
LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE INITIALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS---AND ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS---WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FORECAST TO
PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING SINCE THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE...BEST LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED IN A REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES WERE LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.  WPC FORECASTS
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH AN AXIS OF PCPN FARTHER
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE HI RES ARW AND HRRR.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS
HAD SOME ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE...BUT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULLSEYES LIMITED OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLN.

WESTERN GULF COAST

AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MODELS POINTED TO
THE HEAVIEST PCPN REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  BY
THAT POINT THE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTH TX...RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASING RAFL INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---OH
VALLEY

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES BY 29/00Z.  MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TIED TO THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND IN A REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL RISE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE.

NORTHWESTERN  U.S./SOUTHWEST CANADA

THE NEXT AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST CANADA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  LITTLE REASON TO MAKE MANY
CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED QPF IN THAT MOST OF THE QPF
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 487614 485622 484625 485631 489635 493640 497649 500656
      502665 502674 500682 497689 491701 486707 481712 477717
      474718 473720 461728 454730 448730 432733 430732 430727
      432725 435724 439722 441718 443715 442711 452703 463695
      469691 473685 474681 473678 471678 469676 465677 460674
      459667 450655 446650 445644 448635 451627
 0.01 561949 561925 560915 558906 555892 554886 553882 548881
      544879 543881 539882 535885 531890 518907 507913 502916
      497921 494926 492931 490937 489946 487952 487963 485972
      485982 487987 489990 494993 497994 498998 500006 503012
      504032 506039 506047 499059 498062 496059 494054 490050
      485051 480052 476054 469063 465067 459069 452068 448068
      445070 443074 444077 449081 451084 451089 449090 446091
      442091 440092 438093 437097 440101 442115 446118 449124
      455126 457135 456145 457150 463146 464138 466127 467120
      471115 475114 479115 483120 485125 486132 488145 501205
      496207 492208 487208 484211 484214 486218 488221 491222
      494236 500248 501251 500256 496252 494245 493242 490241
      485240 481239 480235 482232 480228 476229 476233 474236
      473239 474243 478247 482251 485256 489262 493268 498272
      500271 502273 511279 517278 519269 517255 515242 513235
      511227 511223 513218 516214 520209 523210 525214 529219
      533219 534217 535215 536210 537205 536202 532197 530191
      529187 530182 530173 529164 528160 529154 529138 530129
      531122 536102 539084 541077 541067 543058 544048 544036
      547029 551015 554999 557985 560966 560955 561949
 0.01 486917 486896 485885 483877 473856 470850 466845 463841
      459839 452835 446836 442838 437841 430843 421851 417859
      415867 414875 414878 412881 407879 397876 384861 381857
      377852 373848 372840 369833 366828 363825 357825 353827
      349831 350836 351841 352849 353859 353875 354883 358888
      362892 366895 375901 379903 383907 392931 386936 377942
      365946 360948 352949 348951 343952 339954 336960 323979
      319986 313996 300015 299017 296018 291016 285016 283021
      286025 292025 295027 294031 293037 293048 295054 299055
      303051 306046 315038 322032 327029 332028 341022 351018
      359015 370013 377014 380020 380024 379028 374032 370035
      368039 365040 362038 360041 358047 358054 360060 363064
      379075 384079 390080 404081 411074 417063 429044 432039
      435035 440028 447018 451011 452003 453989 454984 456981
      459977 465968 468962 469955 472941 477934 481929 483925
      486917
 0.01 367806 367798 366793 365791 364789 360789 357790 355792
      353797 353806 353813 355819 356821 359821 363818 366813
      367806
 0.01 358752 356750 356748 354746 352744 350742 346743 346745
      345748 345752 346754 348756 350758 353759 355759 357757
      357754 358752
 0.01 319952 314947 314937 314927 312920 309913 304909 299905
      291905 289905 288902 290899 293892 294889 295885 289884
      285890 282896 275908 264933 261949 256955 252959 243969
      240975 240979 241982 242986 245988 253989 257993 262997
      269994 274991 286985 292982 299980 305977 307971 314959
      319952
 0.01 288797 288794 287793 282791 276785 272783 267782 259784
      243793 239797 237801 237812 239823 241830 244835 247838
      250841 255841 268840 274846 281852 285852 289850 290848
      290844 288839 284831 276824 275820 276815 278805 281801
      285800 288797
 0.25 556925 556918 553914 547913 539915 533920 527925 523932
      520941 518952 517960 515964 513973 515977 518979 520982
      521989 524997 528998 531995 535987 539980 546963 552944
      555932 556925
 0.25 522194 522184 520175 519167 516160 512155 508149 504132
      502125 500123 497121 495124 494129 494138 497146 501150
      504150 505152 505161 504164 503170 505178 508185 512189
      517195 521196 522194
 0.25 511257 511254 510253 510251 509250 507250 507252 507253
      508256 509259 511257
 0.25 522067 523065 523062 523060 524057 522055 521054 519055
      518056 517057 517059 516061 516064 516067 516069 517070
      518072 518073 520072 521070 522069 522067
 0.25 472902 471891 470881 468873 466866 462861 458860 455860
      447862 443865 438868 433869 428872 426874 425879 424898
      418900 413901 406900 400897 391890 385889 383891 383895
      385902 389908 397919 399926 401934 400942 398948 389956
      384961 377964 362964 357966 353970 346980 336990 327999
      320007 318013 318018 319020 322021 326020 332017 342012
      355008 367006 383006 388006 394010 405010 408010 411008
      415003 421990 425985 430982 441983 446978 449974 462946
      464941 467933 470917 472902
 0.25 392055 392052 391052 390052 388051 386051 385051 383051
      381051 380051 381053 383055 384055 385056 386056 388057
      389057 390057 391055 392055
 0.25 297958 298949 296941 294938 291938 285941 281945 276949
      270951 266956 256964 248973 248976 251977 255980 262984
      268984 274983 279980 285977 290972 294967 296962 297958
 0.25 270793 266792 262793 257798 251802 251811 250818 251826
      254828 257828 263824 266818 269812 270802 270793
 0.50 546939 545935 544936 541939 540941 539944 538947 536952
      535955 536958 538957 540955 541952 542949 544946 545941
      546939
 0.50 468898 468890 466882 464878 460874 455874 451876 442878
      437880 433885 429897 424905 421909 417912 412914 405914
      404919 404928 405937 405944 403950 400952 395956 391960
      389963 385967 375971 366973 361976 357980 350986 347989
      343991 335997 329005 325010 327014 335008 342004 347002
      354002 364003 385000 390999 396998 404992 408984 416977
      419973 424974 436976 442973 447962 450957 452952 457941
      461932 465920 468908 468898
 0.50 282970 281964 279962 274961 269962 265964 263966 259970
      259974 263975 266976 272976 275976 279974 282970
 0.50 264809 263807 263806 264804 263804 261804 261805 260807
      260809 260810 262810 264810 264809
 1.00 462908 462900 461894 458892 453893 447893 444894 438900
      431907 427914 425919 422922 415926 412931 411936 410947
      407957 408961 411963 430966 434966 437963 439958 440953
      445945 449937 454929 459922 461913 462908
 1.00 391979 390977 387976 382977 375979 369980 364982 362987
      362990 366991 373990 378989 384987 389984 391979
 1.50 450908 449904 448907 443911 439914 438916 435916 426926
      417932 415938 414945 415952 418956 425959 430959 434956
      435949 436944 438942 441937 444923 449911 450908
 2.00 431949 430945 430942 428939 426937 423936 419937 418940
      417942 418945 419949 421950 424950 427952 430952 431949

$$




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