Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170542
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 17/1200 UTC THRU APR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
WELL DEFINED NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK H5 TROF INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  A SLUG OF HIGHER PWS..ABOVE 1 INCH..ARE BEING PULLED INTO
AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS
TROF AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT..AND THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY..ALONG WITH THE DECENT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/HEIGHT
FALLS AND SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WA AND OR AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MOST OF
THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS ENTIRE
REGION..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

THE MIDWEST H5 TROF IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY ALL THE MODELS TO
LIFT THRU THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE
PERIOD..WHILE ALSO WEAKENING A BIT.  GIVEN THIS SLOW WEAKENING
TREND AND LESSENING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM PAST DAY OR SO..WITH ONLY SOME 0.25-0.50
INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
LAKES REGION.  AGAIN..MODEL QPFS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE
AND FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY.


...GULF COAST STATES...

A RETURN TO A VERY WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER IN THIS PERIOD..AS ENERGY IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF BOTH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCH ENERGY..BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS
AGREE FAIRLY WELL THRU THIS PERIOD ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.
ALTHOUGH THE THE GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING A BIT FROM FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE GULF..THE IDEA OF IMPROVING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF HIGHER GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DOES SUPPORT THE MODEL CONSENSUS QPF
SCENARIO OF INCREASING RAINS..WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS MAKING IT INTO
AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE H5 S/WV DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THIS REGION ON
THURSDAY WILL TAP INTO SOME SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL H85 INFLOW AND A
BIT HIGHER PWS TO PRODUCE SOME MOSTLY LIGHT RAINS FROM SOUTHERN KS
INTO OK AND CENTRAL TX..WITH MANUAL QPF TAKING A COMPROMISE OF THE
WETTER GFS QPF SOLUTION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE..ALL OF WHICH WERE LIGHTER THAN THE GFS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 520271 523256 523249 524240 525230 527226 529224 533220
      535215 534200 531189 529180 527174 521162 513154 507146
      501143 496138 488129 482120 478111 473106 468105 463108
      457110 440105 435107 431111 427118 424124 415146 413152
      412160 412170 411181 405191 399199 396204 394208 393213
      397219 402222 408231 407235 403240 402242 402246 405248
      405251 407258 414260 419261 424261 433260 439260 444263
      456269 462272 467275 477280 489287 501295 506297 509296
      513290 516284
 0.01 502904 503867 501845 494827 487822 479818 468825 458841
      446859 440868 440876 442885 445896 448902 451908 458913
      469918 473920 478921 484924 489924 495919 502904
 0.01 469205 470203 468201 467201 465200 463201 465203 465204
      466205 468207 469205
 0.01 438827 438818 436814 428821 415849 410860 405871 402878
      399886 393899 389911 385924 387927 386933 382938 378945
      375949 372955 367960 359966 352969 350970 346969 340966
      332966 327967 319968 306968 299970 295976 295986 299991
      322997 329999 336000 343004 347009 354019 357023 362027
      367026 372022 376016 379009 384997 387991 388984 389975
      389964 390953 393947 393943 395940 395931 400920 404913
      407907 413894 422868 427855 433840 438827
 0.01 340906 340898 338891 333883 325872 323866 321857 320852
      320845 319838 317832 315825 312819 304808 300806 296802
      288795 283792 278790 271789 265791 261793 253795 249797
      248801 246806 245808 245813 254821 257824 263826 269825
      273822 280819 285816 287815 288817 286820 281825 273830
      262834 256837 250841 243851 239861 236871 230900 231915
      233927 241936 254940 256945 260949 265952 270952 277951
      281946 285941 288935 290931 295927 299931 304932 317930
      323928 328924 334921 336918 340906
 0.25 514277 516268 517260 516251 514245 510234 504223 499212
      496208 490204 484204 480205 471209 451214 442216 437217
      433222 431228 432232 440243 449248 463252 472257 478260
      483264 499282 503285 508285 512281 514277
 0.25 520196 520189 518182 515176 512170 504163 500159 496152
      492140 489136 483132 477132 475136 481140 485144 486148
      484153 480153 474151 469146 465142 459142 455146 452153
      448166 447184 447192 451193 456189 460185 464181 468178
      473176 478178 487185 492188 500191 510196 516198 520196
 0.25 493891 493885 491879 486872 483870 477870 467871 463872
      457873 456878 456881 458886 461888 469893 476897 479899
      483901 488900 492896 493891
 0.25 407213 407211 405211 404212 403212 402212 400213 401216
      403216 405215 407213 407213
 0.25 373000 374993 369990 363990 360993 361996 364999 365002
      367005 369005 372003 373000
 0.25 312867 312859 311852 310846 306840 300834 296832 289833
      281838 272845 264850 255858 249865 245877 243881 243887
      242891 243894 245901 247905 251908 255911 259915 265916
      269913 279907 286902 291899 297900 302898 304895 308890
      311884 312875 312867
 0.25 275803 275800 274799 270798 264798 259799 255801 254806
      253810 255814 259816 264817 269814 271811 271806 275803
 0.50 514269 515261 514256 511244 502225 498216 496212 489209
      481208 472211 454216 447217 443218 441220 439224 447229
      451240 454243 457244 469247 477251 482254 486258 497274
      500277 504280 512273 514269
 0.50 505179 500170 494163 490161 485160 475157 471156 468152
      466152 463155 468162 475169 482174 485177 490179 500180
      505179
 0.50 475227 475224 474224 473224 472225 472226 473227 475227
 0.50 461178 459177 458180 459180 461178 461178
 0.50 310860 309852 307847 305843 299839 294839 288840 276849
      264859 260864 256873 254880 253884 254891 256899 258902
      262905 268904 275900 282896 289893 298892 305886 308880
      310869 310860
 0.50 266810 265808 264807 263806 261805 260805 258806 257807
      256809 257811 258813 260813 262813 264813 266810 266810
 1.00 500232 497224 492216 482212 478212 474214 471216 466216
      459220 461223 465222 472219 476218 481219 489224 497231
      500232
 1.00 479241 478239 478238 477237 476236 475237 475239 475240
      477241 478241 479241
 1.00 307871 307865 306856 304852 299853 291854 286856 282859
      275865 271869 268873 267878 266884 267890 271893 280888
      289885 300881 303879 306873 307871
 1.50 305869 304868 303867 303865 302864 301865 301867 300867
      300870 301872 303871 305870 305869

$$





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