Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 27/1200 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

A MID-LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR NW AND NRN
ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PRESS DOWNSTREAM ON WED... AS HEIGHT FALLS AND
SMALL SCALE VORTICITY SPREAD OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THE UPPER DYNAMICS ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL POSSIBLY IGNITE TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND QPF... ONE IN ADVANCE OF ENERGY LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND ANOTHER POSSIBLY EXITING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO KS AND POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD OK. WPC WENT WITH AREAL AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS AOA 1 INCH IN
BOTH LOCALES. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST... EXPECT LOW UPPER
HEIGHTS WITH ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT TO INTERACT WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA IMPACTED BY UNPRECEDENTED
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MONTH... AS HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ADDING VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM TO THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT... ONE NEAR
NERN OK AND ANOTHER MORE LARGER AREA ACROSS NERN/NRN TX. THE
SMALLER ZONE OVER NERN OK APPEARS TO BE FADING BUT SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NWRN AR/SWRN MO BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS
LOCATION BEING HIGHLIGHTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY
NERN/ERN OK. MEANWHILE... THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF CONVECTIVE
RAINS OVER NERN TX IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST POSSIBLY TOWARD SERN TX/SWRN LA. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
HAVE MUCH OF AN IDEA ON THIS ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR THE SPC WRF BUT
THIS MODEL WAS TOO SLOW. DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORTABLE
GUIDANCE... THIS FCST IS RATHER HUMBLING AS WPC ATTEMPTED TO CARRY
WHATS LEFT OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE TOWARD SERN TX AND THEN
POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOP HEAVY RAINS ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN/NERN TX
DURING THE DAY BUT AT THIS POINT ITS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW TO PLAY
OUT.

EASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTH...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST TOWARD SERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO SHEAR AXES
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OR OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST SHEAR AXIS IS MOVING INTO WRN PA/WV INTO
NC/SC AT THE MOMENT AND WILL PROCEED THROUGH THE NERN QUAD OF THE
COUNTRY... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE VORTICITY FADES. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATL REGION WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MOTION... ESPECIALLY INTO
THE MID-ATL REGION AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE KEEPS STEERING MOTIONS
LIGHT. THE SECOND SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTH
YIELDING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MOST OPPORTUNE
ACTIVITY APPEARS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AS MORE POOLING MOISTURE WILL
EXIST WITH LIGHTER 850-700MB WINDS.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 534212 535198 534183 533171 529162 522146 515130 513126
      512120 511112 511105 510102 510098 511091 508078 505066
      503060 504055 503052 501046 501035 502016 498991 496979
      496972 493968 484954 479951 471952 467956 465961 464966
      460969 454971 450968 446970 442973 440975 438973 435970
      432968 427970 421970 417970 416966 417959 417954 415952
      410954 407951 401950 395947 393950 390950 389947 386940
      384936 384931 383924 386916 393897 397886 400882 405880
      410877 413873 419865 423862 430860 436860 439856 441852
      444851 444858 441863 439866 435868 427873 426876 428879
      432879 434881 437892 441899 443900 444903 446907 452914
      455918 459921 468925 472927 474927 474924 474919 475915
      472912 469910 465905 464900 468898 471894 474892 476895
      480904 482902 485901 487896 488890 491881 493871 495861
      496856 498852 506834 515810 523789 525783 527777 530763
      535739 535733 534730 531717 528709 527700 520679 519673
      516668 511658 509652 506647 502644 498640 495637 492639
      483644 475651 468661 465664 465660 466654 465650 464649
      456650 451651 447654 442660 438667 437675 440683 438695
      439700 437703 432707 420722 416726 413725 412722 413717
      416711 426695 428687 425691 423695 417702 411708 405712
      400718 392733 378747 371755 368758 363761 354768 348775
      336789 325803 314816 308822 302827 298832 297835 292836
      280837 275838 272842 267847 273856 277860 280865 284874
      288883 289887 287889 285893 284898 285902 286907 289911
      293918 294922 294930 292947 287954 286957 289959 293962
      296966 295970 294976 292981 293984 294989 291993 288993
      287996 289997 292006 293014 296013 298015 299021 301025
      298025 292020
 0.01 292020 288022 288027 291030 291033 293035 292038 290038
      288035 285034 277037 268041 265043 266048 272055 289060
      301055 313054 316053 320055 323057 329058 332058 334056
      338054 345049 351043 352039 357039 360040 360044 358047
      357053 359058 359061 357064 357068 360068 364070 369073
      371074 372077 373082 375085 376091 375096 375098 373099
      370100 368103 368106 372104 381099 385100 385105 385108
      384111 380114 379117 383120 384125 389126 391130 388132
      385131 382132 379137 380140 379154 379161 380166 383170
      383177 374177 369178 366180 364182 365186 367188 372190
      382190 386188 388187 386185 385179 389176 393175 397171
      402172 405177 409174 422176 428171 433174 430179 430182
      432186 438193 441195 444193 447194 448197 454194 455189
      457185 470173 478169 482171 482176 479180 480185 482195
      480199 477200 472204 464206 460207 461213 463216 468217
      472214 475214 477213 487216 491217 495220 502235 506245
      508248 513247 518225 526217 528216 532216 534212
 0.01 461825 459815 457810 457805 454802 452802 450804 447810
      444817 440825 439829 437832 436836 437840 442846 445848
      447845 451844 454842 457839 458835 460827 461825
 0.01 449763 448761 446762 445764 445766 447768 448765 449763
 0.01 442171 441167 440165 438163 436160 434157 432156 429156
      430161 431163 433165 434169 436172 437174 439172 442171
 0.01 433083 432080 430078 429080 428081 427082 427084 428086
      430086 432085 433083
 0.01 424079 424077 425075 425072 424070 422070 421072 420072
      419074 418074 417076 418078 418081 420082 421082 423081
      423080 424079
 0.01 414727 412725 411726 409727 407728 407729 406730 405731
      405734 406734 408733 409731 410730 411729 413728 414727
 0.01 422062 422060 422058 421057 420057 419060 418062 419063
      421063 422062
 0.01 403739 401738 400739 399740 400741 402740 403739
 0.01 406049 404047 404045 404044 405042 405040 405038 405037
      403035 401036 400037 400039 400041 399042 398044 399046
      401048 402049 404049 406049 406049
 0.01 391100 390099 389098 388096 387096 385095 383097 385099
      386099 386100 388102 390102 391100
 0.01 389041 389036 388034 387031 385029 383026 381026 381031
      379033 377035 378037 380041 383041 386043 388043 389041
 0.01 311026 311024 310022 309022 307023 307024 305025 306028
      308027 310027 311026
 0.01 307032 306031 305031 303030 301030 299031 301033 303033
      304034 306033 307032
 0.01 299031 297030 295030 294031 295032 297032 299031
 0.01 293046 294044 293042 291043 293046 293046
 0.01 260819 257817 252816 250812 249808 245806 239807 237810
      236814 238818 240821 243823 247825 252824 256822 259820
      260819
 0.25 526733 521708 517699 515696 512695 508695 504697 493702
      486704 477704 473704 469701 469694 471691 475684 478681
      479677 478671 476668 470669 467673 465678 464683 461686
      458687 438713 435717 433721 429725 425728 417732 410740
      407743 404747 400754 396760 393762 390760 381759 377759
      376763 372766 368770 369773 371774 375774 378775 382775
      390772 396768 402764 407759 414754 419754 422753 425747
      427746 428758 429763 432766 435763 437759 440752 441747
      441740 442735 445732 450730 453725 459716 462713 465712
      464717 464723 464728 465734 464744 465755 467761 467767
      468774 470780 472785 473790 474803 472810 472823 471831
      468843 468848 468855 460874 461878 464882 468880 471877
      476871 480865 488847 493837 497826 511794 519771 522761
      524749 526740 526733
 0.25 497049 497044 496041 494035 491025 494015 489983 465987
      458987 453985 450983 449984 448989 450991 455995 456999
      455003 452003 446007 441012 437015 439021 444027 448032
      452037 440040 441045 443047 450048 454049 456052 457055
      459058 467059 471061 475067 478059 481042 482039 484044
      487050 493053 496051 497049
 0.25 488030 488025 486022 481015 477009 475006 473006 470008
      468011 464019 462021 464025 469025 471023 476024 479032
      480035 482034 488030
 0.25 477129 475124 472120 471115 470110 471105 469099 469095
      471092 470088 468086 464087 460087 457089 455083 453076
      454068 451065 447066 443067 442070 445074 448077 451081
      452088 450100 444110 440107 437110 436115 439117 439120
      440134 441140 444145 447147 449147 453146 456147 457149
      460153 466155 469155 472154 473151 472148 469146 466142
      467138 476131 477129
 0.25 433118 433115 431113 426112 419111 416110 413110 410113
      409109 413103 414097 414094 412092 409093 408096 406102
      399111 397113 397116 400122 415137 413142 408141 401140
      399138 396138 389145 388160 389163 392163 392156 394149
      397147 399147 406147 410146 413151 415154 417154 422143
      425127 429123 433118
 0.25 425791 424786 422789 419794 417797 417802 415804 414809
      416814 419813 422808 423803 424798 425793 425791
 0.25 419825 417820 413818 410818 407822 401828 397836 394841
      393845 396850 394856 387867 379874 373875 366875 356873
      348877 347882 345886 339895 337897 335895 334888 335882
      336878 339877 343877 346873 346862 348857 349852 348847
      349843 351831 348826 343824 339821 335822 332827 331835
      323843 320844 317843 314840 310837 306838 293848 292854
      296857 299856 302860 307873 308877 308881 306888 303899
      303906 302912 301922 299934 296945 296950 297956 304966
      305972 305981 304988 305992 306996 309999 315000 329991
      333988 335983 340982 344978 359977 362977 363980 364987
      364993 362998 359004 363006 368009 371016 376017 380019
      386021 395026 401029 408030 414032 416028 413016 404012
      401007 401003 403001 406000 408995 409992 409988 405984
      401981 395979 392979 389980 385983 380983 377979 372977
      370976 368974 365963 363952 359945 350922 352916 356910
      366905 369900 373897 376893 378888 380885 386885 390882
      392879 398869 405859 409846 409840 410836 416832 419825
 0.25 398055 397054 395053 394052 393052 392053 390054 391057
      393058 395057 397056 398055
 0.25 365843 365840 364840 363841 362843 363844 365843 365843
 0.25 360816 360814 359813 358812 357811 355810 353811 352813
      352814 351815 350817 350818 349820 350822 351822 352822
      354822 355821 356821 358820 358819 359817 360816
 0.25 355897 351894 346897 344903 343905 340906 337906 335904
      335902 331900 329902 330906 333909 335912 336913 340912
      344908 349906 352901 355897
 0.25 354005 351001 349998 350993 348989 344987 340989 338993
      337998 335003 335006 336011 339012 342011 345011 349009
      353006 354005
 0.25 345809 345807 344805 342804 340804 338804 336806 335808
      334808 334811 335813 335815 336816 337815 338815 339814
      341813 342812 343812 344810 345809
 0.25 334030 334027 330026 328028 326031 325033 324035 324040
      324043 326042 329040 331038 332036 333032 334030
 0.25 332817 330814 328813 324814 323815 321817 319820 318822
      316825 315828 318829 321827 324825 325824 327822 330820
      332817
 0.25 321012 321009 321007 321005 320003 318001 317001 315001
      315003 315004 315005 315006 314007 314009 314011 315011
      316012 318013 320013 321012
 0.50 520739 520730 518722 516717 511715 507718 504722 500736
      496747 492761 485786 480814 479829 478837 477845 477849
      479850 481847 485841 488836 497812 507789 515764 518753
      520739
 0.50 495046 494043 494041 493041 492038 491036 489037 488038
      488040 488043 489043 489045 490047 491048 492049 493048
      495046
 0.50 474675 474672 473671 471672 470672 469674 469676 468676
      468679 469681 471680 472679 473677 474676 474675
 0.50 489997 489996 488995 487993 486992 485991 484991 483992
      482994 483997 483998 484000 485000 487000 488000 488999
      489997
 0.50 460694 460691 459691 457691 455693 455695 456697 457697
      458697 459695 460694
 0.50 465129 463127 459126 456127 454128 451127 447126 445128
      445132 448133 452132 455132 459134 460133 463131 465129
 0.50 471038 467035 462031 459027 456020 456015 455013 451015
      452025 454030 457035 460040 465044 468044 470041 471038
 0.50 463099 462097 461097 460095 460096 460099 460101 461103
      463102 463100 463099
 0.50 462996 463994 462993 460991 459991 458990 457991 456991
      457992 457993 458995 460996 462996 462996
 0.50 449017 451015 449014 448014 447015 447017 449017 449017
 0.50 434732 433730 430729 427730 424731 422732 419735 419738
      421739 424739 426740 430740 431737 433735 434732
 0.50 403993 404989 403988 398984 387988 383990 382993 382997
      383007 388017 391020 397022 400020 399014 394013 396011
      394009 392011 390009 396002 395997 396995 399994 403993
 0.50 392766 392764 390762 389762 388762 386762 384762 383762
      381763 380764 380766 380768 382770 384771 385770 387770
      387769 389769 390768 392766 392766
 0.50 381013 379008 377003 378999 378994 375990 372988 369988
      367992 366998 368003 371007 372010 376014 378015 381013
 0.50 362969 362965 361961 359958 355952 354945 353939 350935
      344936 345943 343944 340943 341939 336930 331931 328935
      325939 319938 315937 311938 305936 301936 301939 299944
      300949 302955 307959 312960 314964 311977 309983 310988
      313993 317993 319990 319984 322980 324978 327978 333975
      339969 346960 348966 350970 355972 361971 362969
 0.50 343842 343841 342840 341839 339840 338841 337841 336843
      336844 335845 334847 334848 334849 335850 336851 337850
      338849 340848 340847 341846 342845 343843 343842
 0.50 346002 346000 345998 344996 342996 340997 338999 337002
      338004 338005 340005 342004 344004 346002
 0.50 330865 331863 331861 329860 328860 326861 325864 326865
      326866 328866 330866 330865
 0.50 328855 328852 327851 327853 326855 327856 328855
 0.50 324894 325889 324885 323882 321880 319881 318883 317888
      316892 316894 316898 317900 320901 322899 323896 324894
 0.50 318922 318920 318917 317916 315917 315918 314920 314922
      313924 313926 313928 314930 315928 315927 316926 317924
      317923 318922
 0.50 312869 313867 313864 313862 311861 310861 309863 308865
      309867 310868 312869 312869
 1.00 341954 340952 339951 339952 338954 339956 341954
 1.00 337960 336958 336957 335956 334954 333954 332953 330953
      328953 328954 327954 325956 325958 325960 326962 326965
      326967 328968 330967 332965 332964 334963 335962 336962
      337960

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