Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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821
FXUS04 KWBC 250943
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/1200 UTC THRU APR 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

09Z UPDATE:

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO OUR PRELIMINARY FORECAST. NUDGED SOME
HIGHER QPF TOTALS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST OK TONIGHT TO
COME MORE IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS POSITION. THINK THE NEW OZ
ECMWF IS PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

ALSO OF NOTE IS HOW POORLY SOME OF THE 0Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE DOING WITH THE NC ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. THE WRF ARW...NMMB AND HRRR RUNS ARE WAY TOO QUICK IN
TAPERING OFF THE RAIN AND MOVING THINGS TO THE NORTH. INSTEAD A
CIRCULATION NEAR THE NC COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL RATES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND ALSO HELPED MAINTAIN
STEADY RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS CAN EXPECT HEAVIER TOTALS
THAN MOST MODELS SHOW AND THAT ARE IN OUR WPC FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
EXPECT THAT BY MID MORNING THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHED AND
PUSHED MORE QUICKLY NORTH INTO VA. THE 06Z 3KM NAM APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER...BUT PROBABLY STILL TOO QUICK IN TAPERING
RAINFALL OVER NC.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:

...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS. AN ANOMALOUS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A
STREAM OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF NC/VA WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS SOME DRY AIR IS ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM...AND THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS PICKING UP FORWARD
SPEED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD (12Z TUE-12Z WED) WILL LIKELY END UP FOCUSED FROM NJ
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ONSHORE MOIST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE LONGEST TO THE EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY WITH RAINFALL RATES NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
TRY TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING AREAL AVERAGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE FROM NJ INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC
QPF ACROSS THIS REGION FOLLOWED A MULTI MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH WAS
WEIGHTED CLOSER TO THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL MEAN. OVERALL TENDED
TO PREFER THE 3KM NAM AND NSSL WRF THE MOST OUT OF THE HIGH RES
RUNS FOR THIS REGION.

THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC INTO
SOUTHEAST VA UNDERNEATH THE 850MB LOW CENTER. CONVECTION BECAME
PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE OVER SC...WHICH
RESULTED IN SOME SLOW MOVING CONVECTION DROPPING SOME PRETTY HEFTY
TOTALS. SOME SIGNS WITHIN MOST OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT THIS
COULD HAPPEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
CLOSED LOW. THUS COULD END UP WITH SOME LOCALIZED 1-3" AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA ASSUMING WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

MULTIPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THESE
FEATURES...BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...SHOULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION FROM PORTIONS OF WY/MT INTO PORTIONS OF SD/NE AND
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE ONE SWATH OF 0.5"+ AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SET UP. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME 0.5" TO 1"
AMOUNTS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA INTO MN/WI. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS WERE NOTED WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE
HIGHER QPF AXIS GETS ACROSS SD/MN. THE GFS/3KM NAM/NSSL WRF ARE
FURTHER NORTHWEST...WITH THE WRF ARW/NMMB AND 12Z ECMWF FURTHER
SOUTH. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL TO PREFER ANY ONE SOLUTION...THUS WPC
QPF GENERALLY FOUND A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OK/KS INTO WESTERN MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN
CAPPED OF MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE AND
INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELPING BREAK THE CAP AFTER 0Z. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE REALLY PICKS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 0Z AS WELL...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WHEN THIS 850MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS DOES NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH. THUS
SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BACKBUILDING AND/OR
REPEAT CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTIVE OF SOME TRAINING
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT DOES EVENTUALLY PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST...SO
THE WINDOW FOR TRAINING IS NOT ALL THAT LONG...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO EXTREME. IN GENERAL WOULD EXPECT
1-2" AREAL AVERAGED AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SOME PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS...AND WPC
GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS POSITION FOR THE HEAVIEST QPF
AXIS.

...NM/CO...

AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE FEATURE INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY COULD EVEN DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS FOR 1-2" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO...WITH
BROADER LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE NEXT WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN GENERAL THE BETTER MOISTURE PLUME IS
DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING. THUS NOT EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE ALL THAT HIGH. IN GENERAL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ALLOWED FOR WPC QPF TO FOLLOW A MULTI MODEL BLEND WEIGHTED TOWARDS
THE HIGH RES MODEL MEAN.



DAYS 2 AND 3...


...NORTHEAST...

THE COMPACT DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW TRACK UP
THE NORTHEAST COAST ON DAY 2...LIFTING THE ELONGATED GULF STREAM
FED MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. PW ANOMALIES REMAIN
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...PEAKING BETWEEN 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PER THE SREF AND GEFS. WHILE RELATIVELY COMPACT...THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LENGTHEN THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITHIN THE SHARPENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE COAST. A LIMITATION TO THE EXCESSIVE
SHORT-TERM RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCAPES NO HIGHER THAN 200 J/KG
OFF LONG ISLAND AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THE WET ANTECEDENT SOILS...AS EVIDENCED FROM THE LATEST NATION
WATER MODEL OUTPUT...ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOWERING OF THE
1/3/6 HOURLY FFG...WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON DAY 2 ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. WHILE MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UNDER 1 INCH...PER THE AVAILABLE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.0+ INCHES WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE.


...EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

NEXT DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING DAY 2 HAD NOT BEEN HANDLED PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE
GUIDANCE BEFORE THE 25/00Z CYCLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED/SLOWER NAM...THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH BETTER CORRELATED
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF WHAT WILL BECOME A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ON WED. THE INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL
PROFILE (ESPECIALLY INSTABILITY BY WED WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF
1000-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPES) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF
HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN TERMS
OF TIMING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PROGGED...ALONG WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5+ INCHES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...WPC MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD
APPROACH/EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
IN TERMS OF THE QPF...WPC AGAIN UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...LED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.. THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
REMAINS BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HELPING TO ACCELERATE
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH SOME OF THE SEGMENTS. MAX AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1-2" WERE NOTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5+ INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED PER THE AVAILABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

CHENARD/HURLEY


24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 549811 549802 549793 547777 543754 541746 540741 535730
      533728 530731 526740 518758 515762 512767 511768 510772
      508779 507784 507790 504789 501784 499780 499775 501770
      501765 502762 501747 499744 499741 498733 493712 491702
      489697 488691 486685 486673 484666 482662 478653 471643
      468639 466637 463639 461638 457638 430653 417667 414668
      411666 409667 407672 390675 387679 383681 374685 369686
      366687 363685 352688 346689 343691 338694 334697 316709
      309715 309724 310728 309734 305741 304744 304749 309756
      311761 312768 313775 316779 320785 323786 325784 344810
      352817 362819 373818 380816 384814 387811 390807 392803
      396801 400802 402805 405816 406822 407826 410831 414833
      431827 436827 440828 445829 450826 451822 453819 455820
      455826 453832 450844 446851 443855 439858 436863 433866
      428866 423868 419870 417873 412879 406885 399891 391896
      385901 380907 369920 365925 361927 351932 341936 333941
      326945 317949 309954 304959 298964 297967 299971 302972
      307972 316970 325967 330967 335968 339970 341975 345977
      348980 352987 350992 346995 339013 337017 338022 335026
      335034 336039 336046 333050 329051 326053 326058 332063
      334067 336071 330078 334085 337095 343103 356105 365110
      369111 373109 378108 384109 389107 392105 399100 402098
      402102 395108 388112 382116 377123 392153 393155 391158
      389162 388169 389174 389176 392173 396171 399169 403165
      406160 408154 404151 401148 402143 403136 407131 409128
      410126 413127 417128 418134 418141 419145 419151 416154
      414158 415163 418161 420156 422152 423146 427137 439125
      443124 448125 452129 454133 453137 452138 445138 442140
      442145 437156 439161 442164 445167 447172 448176 445181
 0.01 445181 440182 437176 436172 433169 430166 425169 419175
      413186 410190 409199 408223 401230 395237 390248 386252
      384256 383263 383269 386273 390276 395280 402283 414286
      435288 448291 453294 457298 463307 470315 478318 483318
      492313 496311 500311 503306 505301 514271 516264 517255
      516250 513245 510239 507233 503220 502215 501213 497209
      495199 485201 477205 470205 463202 462195 461191 463187
      471183 473181 476182 482186 485189 490192 501194 502193
      503188 504178 508165 517161 522150 528138 530130 531122
      525114 518108 509103 509099 506097 502095 492094 487098
      482097 480097 478095 475091 468085 462084 459087 459080
      459073 460054 458042 454008 453002 452994 460987 468981
      472972 482949 491927 494920 497919 504919 508916 515910
      524905 528904 532902 540893 544880 546866 546845 546835
      547827 549811
 0.01 446080 446077 444076 443076 441076 440076 439079 441080
      442079 443078 444079 445079 446080 446080
 0.01 402012 402009 401007 400005 400002 400000 400998 400995
      399993 398995 398998 397998 396000 396002 396004 396007
      395007 395009 395010 397010 399011 399012 401012 402012
 0.01 362188 360187 357187 355184 352183 350185 347187 347189
      346194 348195 350193 351190 354189 358190 360188 362188
 0.25 540791 540783 538779 536775 533776 528782 524791 520803
      517812 510830 502843 499853 497858 494859 486862 480858
      472855 468856 465859 459865 454871 445884 439903 438910
      439917 433923 428930 424937 421946 417955 414963 411973
      410979 411984 415994 417002 418007 421010 428014 430023
      435042 430044 431049 432054 431059 426067 424073 425082
      428086 432083 435086 437084 438076 441072 443073 451080
      453073 453067 453055 453048 452042 450034 445024 441014
      436009 434007 432002 428993 430983 431979 435976 442973
      449969 454963 460957 467949 471942 475935 482918 484914
      487909 492904 503890 509884 514879 525865 530858 533850
      538842 539829 540810 540791
 0.25 505276 504267 499261 496251 495245 492241 484238 478231
      471226 470221 473219 478219 482221 486221 491224 497238
      499232 499227 497224 493220 491217 488214 484210 479210
      476211 473214 471216 467215 458214 449216 442215 434217
      427219 423221 425225 426230 425234 422234 418232 415233
      412235 409239 409245 410250 412253 417259 424265 428268
      433268 439271 444273 449274 457276 464279 471282 475285
      480285 485279 492274 500277 504278 505276
 0.25 502124 503115 501108 499105 496102 492104 488109 484110
      481110 481112 482118 485123 485129 483135 481141 481148
      483154 485159 488161 490160 494157 497155 499146 498140
      497133 502124
 0.25 473680 469668 465664 461663 456662 451660 447660 445662
      439667 423680 410681 398685 386689 377694 356707 348713
      339719 332727 325737 322742 322747 325752 328755 337760
      348763 353761 357758 363756 368758 373761 375766 378773
      378782 376787 378791 391788 400781 411776 415773 419770
      423766 429766 433779 432786 433792 435793 442771 448758
      451746 458723 462718 464711 468699 473680
 0.25 473106 473105 473103 472101 472100 470098 469098 469097
      467096 465097 463099 461101 461102 462104 463106 464107
      466109 468110 469110 471110 473108 473107 473106
 0.25 459116 460114 460111 459110 457109 456110 455110 454111
      453112 452115 453117 453118 455118 457118 459116 459116
 0.25 434109 433108 432107 431106 430106 428106 427105 426106
      426107 427108 428109 430110 431110 433110 434109
 0.25 422919 422915 421912 417911 411912 406910 401910 397912
      391918 376929 363941 359945 357949 352958 350963 350965
      352967 352970 353974 355975 361974 365972 373967 381969
      388963 393956 396950 398945 400941 403938 410931 416926
      422919
 0.25 410119 410118 409117 408114 406113 405114 403116 404118
      404119 406121 407122 409122 409121 410119
 0.25 410108 410105 409105 408105 407107 409109 410108
 0.25 394115 394114 392114 392115 394115 394115
 0.25 390050 390047 387046 386039 388024 387020 385019 380016
      374003 371004 369006 366011 361014 358018 354023 350026
      348029 349034 352034 355031 356036 354037 352039 354040
      364043 367048 367051 365052 360054 355058 349059 345062
      349066 355069 354075 351080 350086 355090 360093 362092
      363088 363079 366072 373065 370061 371060 375062 377064
      378061 381056 386052 390050
 0.25 371772 370768 367766 362765 359765 354767 353771 353777
      355781 358784 363783 367781 370777 371773 371772
 0.25 367061 366059 364059 363060 362061 362062 364062 366061
      367061
 0.50 532808 532803 532798 528801 524814 520828 515840 510854
      507867 507870 509872 514870 517866 520859 523844 526829
      530816 532808
 0.50 495265 496262 495259 495257 494256 493254 493253 492252
      491253 490254 490255 489257 489258 490260 491261 492262
      494263 495265 495265
 0.50 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 472236 472238 471239
      471241 473243 474244 476244 477243 478241 479239 479238
 0.50 481216 480215 478215 480216 481216
 0.50 472249 470247 468243 466240 463238 461235 457234 450233
      444235 437237 435238 434243 436247 439249 446250 454251
      461251 468252 470253 472251 472249
 0.50 463223 461218 456218 452220 448220 445218 442218 438221
      435223 435226 437227 442227 446227 449225 453224 458226
      462225 463223
 0.50 479912 475906 472897 471890 472874 471868 470865 466867
      458874 454880 452886 451893 451901 452904 452908 448916
      444927 436935 433940 430946 428952 424957 419968 416975
      417978 421979 424975 428970 437962 446958 450954 454948
      458935 459932 462931 467928 474921 479912
 0.50 469103 468102 467102 466102 466103 468104 469103
 0.50 458694 457687 456682 452671 450667 447667 441674 430686
      424688 420687 412687 407687 403689 395693 385695 381697
      378700 370704 363708 356713 348719 338731 332738 331741
      331748 337753 344755 352756 362753 369750 377751 380752
      382756 385760 388763 394759 402759 410758 414757 416756
      417752 418748 421747 425745 429747 431750 435749 439746
      442742 445722 445716 447712 452705 455705 456702 458694
 0.50 430248 430243 428240 424239 423238 419237 417237 415239
      416241 416245 418247 421249 424250 427250 430248
 0.50 450073 449068 450063 450058 450053 450049 449046 446044
      444046 441048 440050 441054 441057 440062 442066 443069
      445071 447072 450073
 0.50 431733 431732 429733 429734 431733 431733
 0.50 398931 399927 399922 398920 394919 390922 386927 382930
      377932 368941 360947 357953 356960 355965 357969 359971
      365970 370967 380961 388954 391950 394943 398931
 0.50 382051 383042 381035 380028 379026 375024 371021 368015
      365021 364026 365034 366041 369046 373050 375052 379053
      382051
 0.50 369775 369773 368770 367770 365769 364768 362769 361769
      360770 359772 359774 360776 361778 363779 365778 366778
      367777 368777 369775
 1.00 438704 437700 435698 432700 424701 418702 414702 413704
      410710 408717 405723 402728 398730 396727 393721 388717
      384715 378714 371714 363717 353724 347735 344739 343744
      346750 352753 375744 386747 392748 397746 408748 414745
      416743 417738 417734 418731 421725 423720 431716 438704
 1.00 423243 423241 422241 421243 422244 423243
 1.00 418695 417694 416693 415693 414694 415696 417696 418695
 1.00 388949 388943 386941 386937 383934 380934 377936 370942
      364948 368952 363961 361965 363967 366965 372961 380956
      387952 388949
 1.00 375042 375039 375037 375036 374035 373033 371034 371035
      370037 369039 369041 371043 373044 374043 375042
 1.50 419716 419713 416713 414717 414722 412727 409731 408735
      407740 409742 412741 413734 415731 417726 417721 419716
 1.50 385726 383723 380722 372720 368721 365724 362727 361731
      361735 358737 356740 355744 353747 349749 352751 356751
      362747 366741 370739 375739 378737 379733 384728 385726
 1.50 386949 384949 382949 380950 379951 377951 376952 375952
      373953 372954 370956 371958 373957 375956 377955 379954
      380954 382952 384952 386950 386949
 1.50 371958 370956 368958 366960 366961 366962 368961 370959
      371958

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 507306 505300 502297 495289 491282 487275 483268 477262
      470258 462255 448255 434256 420256 413255 406253 397250
      394247 391242 391234 393230 397227 403224 404222 401219
      389209 384207 382205 380204 378200 377196 378194 381192
      384194 396203 402206 406205 407201 411193 412189 411186
      406183 402181 399178 391176 388169 392161 389154 390149
      389144 389141 392141 392138 390136 386137 379140 376140
      374137 372136 371131 371127 372124 374120 376118 380115
      387110 396107 400105 403103 404097 403093 396089 390090
      383093 375095 369097 361096 356095 353093 350088 356076
      361062 364061 370060 381061 380058 376056 371056 366057
      359058 356056 355052 347041 339026 333013 327002 335991
      337986 337983 331976 326971 319967 318962 315961 306959
      303956 302953 299947 299940 298935 295928 293925 289926
      282927 279927 279924 280915 280896 290882 295876 302873
      331861 344856 350853 356852 393848 412842 427836 432835
      435833 439827 450815 454810 457805 466794 470787 473778
      476760 478749 480737 482715 483705 483701 482699 479703
      471714 462724 458729 454733 446739 439741 425739 417737
      409733 401730 398729 394730 375733 367735 360733 356728
      355723 353720 351718 349716 345711 343708 342704 341693
      346678 353671 359666 367661 372658 379656 385654 392652
      399650 406648 413646 420644 427642 433640 440638 445633
      448628
 0.01 525258 523256 522255 521253 521250 521248 522245 522243
      524241 525242 527242 528242 530241 543195
      540183 536173 527156 517141 508130 500121 498117 497111
      494100 492091 491086 489083 486085 481085 472083 467082
      463080 448068 442067 436070 432087 427084 423084 421086
      424097 423101 419103 416103 414102 413098 415092 414088
      415085 416078 418067 419061 423062 425063 426060 426055
      423050 420046 417046 402051 394053 388056 385058 383056
      385052 379048 374046 368045 363037 362033 361025 365016
      367010 372003 376997 379992 384990 400982 407978 416976
      431969 438967 442967 447969 468970 477971 482970 484970
      485967 489959 496955 499954 500948 504942 507928 510915
      512905 514892 516871 521850 531801 533776 534752 534733
      535716
 0.01 440212 439211 438210 437211 439212 440212
 0.25 519272 518272 516272 515272 514272 513274 512276 513279
      513280 514282 515283 516284
 0.25 537191 537188 536188 536190 536191 537191
 0.25 524730 519715 518697 516691 513688 509686 506690 502698
      500703 499708 495733 482781 479791 475802 468821 463832
      457840 450846 441851 407865 386873 366880 357878 354877
      354875 353873 351868 348866 343866 337867 326871 317876
      310881 303887 297893 296897 298900 304901 306904 305916
      306924 305928 306933 309943 311948 315951 323956 332958
      336961 342962 346960 349962 353964 357963 366957 374952
      381947 390942 396938 405934 421925 431920 441916 449917
      454918 457921 460925 462929 465941 469948 477949 487942
      492934 497924 502913 504903 506892 511867 513850 515834
      517806 519777 521754 523740 524730
 0.25 509256 510249 510244 508235 502222 494209 488205 483205
      476206 469208 464211 458212 445214 439214 433216 425216
      420219 417221 418225 417228 415230 407230 402233 400237
      401241 403244 407245 423247 436246 450244 461242 466242
      470244 478247 482247 484245 482237 483227 489230 494234
      498239 501246 504252 505257 506259 509256
 0.25 507172 506164 505157 504151 501147 496139 489133 480127
      470123 468103 464107 461108 460106 455096 453093 451093
      447095 443096 431097 429102 425105 418110 414110 411105
      410099 407099 406105 403110 388116 385118 384120 386122
      389122 397119 400121 404124 413124 418127 417132 415135
      413143 415148 415153 412162 415166 417168 418171 417177
      420180 421187 423191 428193 433194 437198 441200 447202
      451201 461187 469180 476176 485179 492186 498184 501180
      507172
 0.25 487647 486640 484636 482634 479632 474631 470632 466634
      451639 446643 440647 433652 430655 426657 411658 393663
      377668 369673 365678 363684 362690 364694 366699 366703
      364712 366717 368718 372719 376719 385715 394713 402711
      410711 417713 424714 431715 437715 445711 452707 463699
      470694 474687 476680 480673 486661 487647
 0.25 454127 455125 453124 449124 441121 435120 431121 425126
      422129 423133 425143 427149 429152 436148 444147 447144
      449140 453129 454127
 0.25 403072 403071 402069 401068 400067 400066 399067 398069
      398071 397071 396073 397076 399077 400076 401076 402074
      403072 403072
 0.50 518751 518746 516744 513745 512741 511736 509730 505728
      502731 500737 499742 494762 490780 483802 477821 473829
      469837 465844 462846 458849 450855 442859 424864 407871
      393875 384879 378886 369889 361889 343888 342884 343877
      339874 336874 326877 318881 312886 310891 312894 320896
      320899 317902 312907 310911 310916 313940 314943 317947
      320950 325951 330951 333953 336955 341956 359952 376943
      382940 389935 393931 396929 403925 417920 426916 435912
      441908 450906 458905 464908 473925 476929 481930 485929
      488926 493919 497909 503892 505881 507870 511842 513818
      513793 516770 517759 518751
 0.50 492219 491214 488212 481210 473210 468212 462216 454216
      447216 440216 434219 427220 423224 427230 433231 440230
      448229 453228 467226 479223 487222 490222 492219
 0.50 479648 477643 474640 468641 460644 454649 448657 444663
      437676 432684 430687 426689 423688 420686 416681 410676
      414669 416664 407665 398666 389669 376676 372679 374683
      376688 376694 373700 371703 373704 409698 418698 424702
      429706 435710 440708 444705 449699 458687 470676 474669
      476661 478653 479648
 0.50 475164 476159 474156 471151 467147 461144 456147 453154
      452157 449157 443157 437157 436161 436165 447167 448169
      449173 449180 448185 448190 453188 461183 463180 464176
      464171 465167 475164
 0.50 454113 454110 452110 450111 449112 449114 450115 452115
      454114 454113
 0.50 448112 447110 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439106
      437106 435106 435107 433108 432109 431111 433113 435113
      436113 438113 440113 442114 443114 445114 447114 447113
      448112
 0.50 427242 424239 423238 419236 416235 412235 410237 408239
      410242 413243 415244 418244 422244 425244 427242
 0.50 432174 433171 434169 433167 433166 431165 429164 428164
      426164 425165 424167 424169 425171 426172 427173 428175
      430175 432175 432174
 0.50 411117 410116 408115 406115 405116 406118 408118 410118
      411117
 1.00 508818 508812 506806 503804 502799 500796 496803 492817
      484829 470856 467863 463866 461863 458863 452865 437870
      432871 426872 418873 410874 400878 392882 387886 382891
      376893 364897 353905 345908 340911 330919 327922 325926
      323933 324936 326938 332940 336941 339944 344949 357945
      367940 373936 378931 388921 398913 409906 418898 423893
      430889 440882 453876 457874 460872 463873 464877 463881
      461885 461888 468888 472889 474892 482903 486906 491901
      495894 497884 501867 506851 508836 508818
 1.00 478218 479215 478215 477214 475214 473216 473217 475218
      476218 478218 478218
 1.00 455221 453218 450219 447220 442219 438220 434222 430222
      428223 428225 434225 438226 442225 446225 450224 453223
      455221
 1.50 492861 490856 485853 481857 478862 476870 475877 478884
      483885 488883 491876 492868 492861
 1.50 411887 411884 409883 404884 397887 383894 376899 369902
      363902 361905 357911 352917 346921 342924 343928 350930
      355938 363936 367934 370931 373925 378918 384912 396902
      402897 407892 411887

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 525686 517690 513699 509708 510716 509721 509726 505727
      499729 491734 486737 481738 480741 477742 470743 463740
      457734 454731 450729 444732 440734 437735 431736 428736
      421737 414741 396772 384788 380793 378798 375801 369803
      359804 350803 344804 341806 333811 327814 322820 317826
      313832 303845 294860 288868 285873 288878 290884 293884
      295884 295888 295893 302893 309890 319882 327877 331875
      337874 345872 355871 371876 374877 375879 373883 367889
      361901 358912 354922 353936 353942 352945 352956 350960
      352963 359968 363975 365983 368001 368013 370017 373021
      376023 378029 379034 379040 378047 373050 363052 359054
      357058 367057 372056 377058 377062 373062 370061 366062
      360067 362070 367071 372077 372082 373084 375087 378088
      388089 394090 398092 402093 406096 408100 407103 404107
      402108 399108 395113 387117 385118 385120 386123 389123
      393122 399122 424129 429130 431131 432133 434139 433145
      432155 433158 435161 441167 443171 443174 441175 437172
      434168 428161 425157 422152 419152 416157 414160 413165
      414167 418166 422167 423171 433179 432181 429181 425179
      419175 416174 415177 417180 422183 423188 426190 430188
      433186 435189 432199 429204 431207 434210 435214 434218
      425220 424220 422224 422232 421238 422241 421245 420249
      419252 417259 414266 414269 415272 419281 422283 426284
      437267 442262 447260 459253 467253 471252 474255 480262
      490266 493267 495265 497264 499266 502270 504272 506269
      506263 504258 501254 500251 501249 506248 508246 511247
      514250 518247 519241 520235 520230 519224 516211 515208
      515203 522200 525201 527199 530200 535194 537188 538180
      538169 539164 538162 535156 534150 532146 518129 507114
      505110 504104 506091 506085 505082 502075 497069 493061
      486055 483055 480056
 0.01 480056 473056 470055 466053 458043 451034 447024 445017
      444014 441012 436009 431004 422997 417988 414982 411977
      408971 407962 404947 402935 399920 397911 396906 395903
      389903 387899 387895 387887 389884 390886 397895 402900
      405902 409902 422901 434900 439898 446899 442905 441915
      445928 450928 454930 460930 462932 465933 470933 472935
      477939 489957 491960 494960 496958 499958 502957 504955
      511954 517953 519952 520948 522944 527941 530935 533929
      538925 541919 545906 549892 553879 552853 553846 552837
      551816 550804 549792 549782 549773
 0.01 482652 482645 479640 477638 473638 456641 452643 449647
      444653 438660 435666 433669 430675 427681 426685 427693
      428696 432699 434701 437700 443693 446697 448698 451698
      457694 462692 467691 469688 469681 468679 464678 467675
      472673 475672 478668 482660 482652
 0.25 544793 543780 543767 541760 539755 535748 532745 528746
      523744 518745 513749 508753 502758 499767 499774 500781
      500794 499801 496807 494810 491811 485809 479806 474800
      467795 462793 455793 449795 444798 434809 430815 427819
      423821 417824 410826 404827 399828 393832 386834 377837
      374840 375846 379853 384855 399855 414855 424855 433852
      441850 448849 453853 457857 456866 455869 451871 444875
      440878 439880 441882 464878 471882 473889 476901 480909
      487923 490929 494934 498938 505940 510939 513937 519932
      527921 534910 537903 540895 542883 543870 542826 544793
 0.25 532184 534178 534171 534166 531162 524156 517150 507137
      503132 500126 496117 494115 490113 486110 485103 484097
      483092 479086 475081 465070 456057 450049 445041 427019
      421013 418006 409988 402974 396959 393941 391936 388931
      383930 380934 379945 378954 377964 377974 378997 380008
      381014 383019 386027 387036 389039 393039 398036 400035
      402037 405040 408047 408060 408064 402064 400062 398063
      394071 393074 395076 397079 400080 402079 404075 405071
      413074 417076 419081 424089 428095 431098 431104 430107
      428113 432118 435119 438117 446118 452118 455115 458112
      463113 469117 471119 472123 471134 472139 475143 500165
      506170 512174 518180 522185 525187 528187 532184
 0.25 475217 472215 468215 464217 461218 456219 453220 455225
      460227 464226 467223 470220 473218 475217
 0.25 427786 426786 424786 423787 424787 426787 427786
 0.25 372833 371826 367824 363823 359819 356817 352815 347815
      341815 332820 326827 325832 322836 317843 312852 309860
      305871 304876 304882 306884 310879 315873 323866 330861
      338856 342855 346856 349859 353859 360854 366845 368841
      369835 372833
 0.50 540786 537776 535773 531772 528774 526777 524784 517803
      509812 506816 503818 495821 489824 484827 479832 477837
      476842 473850 470855 466863 467869 471871 478872 483874
      484879 486882 490893 494910 497919 501926 506931 510930
      512928 522915 529903 532896 535885 536875 537864 537853
      537837 539817 540798 540786
 0.50 529175 530170 529166 528164 524162 521161 518160 515160
      515163 516166 517169 519171 520174 521176 524179 528177
      529175
 0.50 508156 508154 507152 507151 506150 504148 503147 501147
      500149 500152 501152 502155 504156 505156 507157 508156
 0.50 464807 464806 463804 462803 460803 459803 458803 457805
      456806 455808 456810 457812 459812 459813 461813 461812
      462810 463809 464808 464807
 0.50 458089 459085 458081 456075 452068 441050 434043 428037
      425034 422033 419034 417036 417041 420053 422065 422068
      420071 420074 421079 423084 426087 427082 426077 425072
      428073 430079 433082 437085 440088 442094 439103 438106
      439110 445108 443103 444096 447094 453093 458089
 0.50 405003 406996 405991 402984 398977 394972 389966 387969
      386974 386986 385995 386004 388008 390005 399006 403005
      405003
 0.50 358834 356829 353826 347822 338823 333826 331828 328838
      323844 322849 322854 326852 329850 338846 346842 353839
      358834
 1.00 516837 514830 510827 505829 501834 498838 494843 493846
      494848 494853 493856 492858 494859 497859 503857 507854
      511848 514843 516837

$$





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