Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 220036
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/22/14 0036Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0015Z  JS
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LOCATION...W TEXAS/E AND SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGES WITH DISCUSSION CONCERNING
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX/E AND SE NM.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0030-0630Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS CONVECTION WITHIN THE CORE OF THE EARLIER
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGAN TO DIMINISH, A FLARE UP OCCURRED AROUND
BOTH THE N AND S PERIPHERY OF THIS REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING IN THOSE
SPOTS AIDED IN THE PRODUCTION OF A BIT MORE INSTABILITY/CAPE. FOR THE
NORTHERN AREA, A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW COLLISIONS/CELL MERGERS HAVE RESULTED
IN THE FORMATION OF A LINE. AT THIS TIME, BELIEVE THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL ONLY EXIST FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM(NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS)
DUE TO  RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
FADE. FOR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL AREA, THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING MORE TO THE W AND SW ACROSS SE NM/FAR W TX TOWARD THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH THREAT AROUND EDDY/CULBERSON COUNTIES PARTICULARLY ENHANCED
BY THE FACT THAT THIS LOCALIZED VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IS FALLING ON SPOTS
WHICH HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
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LATER IN THE NIGHT, BELIEVE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
FLARE UP TO OCCUR OVER SOME PORTION OF SE NM/W TX THOUGH IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND WHAT`S LEFT OF ODILE AT ANY LEVEL IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WOULD AGAIN FOCUS ON ANYTHING
THAT`S LEFT OF EARLIER 700MB CIRCULATION WHICH WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING
IN SE NM AND APPEARED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT PARTICULAR ROUND OF
ACTIVITY. STILL SEE EVIDENCE OF OF THE CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ANOTHER BURST LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF ODILE TRAPPED
UNDER RIDGE ALOFT PER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. AGAIN. A QUICK
LOOK AT THE 00Z MIDLAND SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH
ALMOST NO MEAN FLOW ABOVE THE SFC-6 KM REGION. TOUGH TO GET PRECISE
WITH TIMING/LOCATION, BUT ANTICIPATE THAT IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
SE NM/W TX ROUGHLY BETWEEN ROSWELL NM AND SAN ANGELO TX.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3507 10310 3410 10124 3237 10081 3085 10139 3042 10278
3095 10500 3226 10575 3476 10495
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