Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 310239
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/14 0238Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0230Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE REGARDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-0800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SURFACE
LOW WAS JUST SW OF DYS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE TOWARDS VIC
OF RPH AND AFW AND THEN EXTENDING SE TOWARDS THE VIC OF GLS.  SMALL SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEEN STEADILY FORWARD PROPAGATING SE THIS EVENING
TO JUST W OF ADM.  LATE DAY VIS AND IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ENHANCING AREA
OF TCU/CBS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX
EXTENDING TO W OF SPS AND BELIEVE THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS LLJ CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER WIND PROFILES WOULD TEND TO FAVOR FORWARD PROPAGATING
MODES OF CONVECTION, SURFACE AND UA ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THAT THERMAL,
MOISTURE AND LLJ AXIS WERE FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO FAVOR THE CONVECTIVE
REGENERATION/BACKWARD PROPAGATION CONCEPTUAL MODEL MOST LIKELY ON THE
SW PERIPHERIES OF PREFERRED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CURRENTLY THIS FAVORED
REGENERATING REGION IS NEAR THE VIC OF SPS AND BELIEVE THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT ESE AND PEAK N AND THEN NE OF DAL LATER IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN PERIODS OF TRAINING AND SHORT TERM
QUASI-STATIONARY SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS OVERALL STORM MOTIONS AND SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
SHIFT SE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THERE WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY BUT USING 925H AS CLOUD BASE, IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH
STRENGTHENING AND SLOWLY VEERING LLJ AT 925H WAS FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS ON GOES SOUNDER OVER SE TX TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FLUX
INTO N/NE TX AND EXTREME S OK.  BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON WV IMAGERY.  THIS COULD HELP TO INCREASE
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND ENHANCE COLD POOL FORMATION.  AT THE VERY LEAST
THOUGH WOULD EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH CURRENT
THINKING FROM ROUGHLY JUST E OF SPS EXTENDING THROUGH FAR S OK ALONG AN
ADM TO AQR AXIS WITH THE S EXTENT EXTENDING FROM SPS TO DAL AND TYR.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3434 9647 3411 9548 3366 9483 3281 9475 3218 9495
3192 9539 3195 9575 3251 9650 3269 9698 3293 9768
3340 9826 3396 9823 3427 9752
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