Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 011323
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0623 MST Sunday, February 1, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, February 1, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 35.1 F/1.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8562 ft MSL (3277 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 29.0 F/-2.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5836 ft MSL (551 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/02....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 25461 ft MSL (20176 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 02/02.......... Good

Remarks... Becoming fair by 1500 as northerly flow turns more northwesterly

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:07:25 / 17:17:43 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 10 min 18 sec (610 min 18 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:56 MST... 33.26 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/01/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 11062 ft MSL (5777 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8992 ft MSL (3706 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +18.8
K index......................... +4.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.8 -73.8   265   49   25 -14.4  -7.9  104.5 220.1    60.3      M    M
 45000  -51.3 -60.3   270   47   24   3.7   2.0   91.0 195.9    56.5      M    M
 40000  -49.7 -57.5   290   70   36   5.0   2.7   70.4 158.6    46.9      M    M
 38000  -51.2 -60.2   290   70   36   7.3   4.0   59.1 138.4    40.6      M    M
 36000  -47.9 -54.2   290   62   32  -3.8  -2.1   55.4 131.8    39.2      M    M
 34000  -51.4 -60.5   315   85   44  -6.3  -3.5   41.9 107.5    30.7      M    M
 32000  -50.2 -58.4   320   79   41   2.8   1.5   35.5  95.9    26.9      M    M
 30000  -47.4 -53.3   335  109   56   5.3   2.9   30.4  86.7    23.8      M    M
 29000  -45.0 -49.0   335  112   58   8.9   4.9   29.8  85.6    23.7      M    M
 28000  -42.3 -44.1   335  114   58   8.9   4.9   29.2  84.6    23.6      M    M
 27000  -39.6 -39.3   330  115   59   8.9   4.9   28.8  83.8    23.6      M    M
 26000  -37.0 -34.6   330  116   60   8.9   4.9   28.5  83.3    23.6      M    M
 25000  -34.3 -29.7   330  118   61   8.1   4.4   28.3  83.0    23.8      M    M
 24000  -32.2 -26.0   330  111   57   7.2   4.0   27.3  81.2    23.3      M    M
 23000  -30.5 -22.9   330  104   54  -0.6  -0.3   25.8  78.4    22.3      M    M
 22000  -30.5 -22.9   330  101   52   0.0   0.0   22.1  71.9    19.6      M    M
 21000  -30.7 -23.3   330   98   51  -3.0  -1.6   18.5  65.2    16.7      M    M
 20000  -31.6 -24.9   320   71   37  -3.8  -2.1   13.9  57.0    13.1      M    M
 19500  -32.6 -26.7   320   64   33  -7.0  -3.8   11.0  51.8    10.7      M    M
 19000  -33.1 -27.6   315   58   30   0.9   0.5    8.7  47.6     8.8      M    M
 18500  -32.6 -26.7   315   55   28   2.9   1.6    7.5  45.6     7.9      M    M
 18000  -31.6 -24.9   315   52   27   9.9   5.4    7.0  44.6     7.5      M    M
 17500  -30.1 -22.2   315   50   25  10.7   5.9    7.1  44.8     7.6      M    M
 17000  -28.7 -19.7   315   47   24   9.1   5.0    7.0  44.6     7.5      M    M
 16500  -27.3 -17.1   310   44   23   9.1   5.0    6.9  44.4     7.4      M    M
 16000  -26.0 -14.8   310   42   21   9.1   5.0    6.8  44.3     7.4      M    M
 15500  -24.7 -12.5   310   40   21   9.1   5.0    6.7  44.0     7.3      M    M
 15000  -22.9  -9.2   315   38   19   5.9   3.2    6.2  43.2     6.9      M    M
 14500  -21.9  -7.4   315   36   19  10.3   5.6    5.7  42.3     6.5      M    M
 14000  -20.0  -4.0   315   35   18  11.3   6.2    6.3  43.3     7.0      M    M
 13500  -18.7  -1.7   315   33   17   7.9   4.3    6.1  42.9     6.9      M    M
 13000  -17.5   0.5   310   31   16   8.0   4.4    5.8  42.4     6.6      M    M
 12500  -16.3   2.7   310   29   15   8.2   4.5    5.5  41.9     6.4      M    M
 12000  -15.3   4.5   305   27   14   6.0   3.3    5.1  41.2     6.0      M    M
 11500  -14.4   6.1   310   24   12   6.2   3.4    4.5  40.1     5.5      M    M
 11000  -13.5   7.7   315   22   11   6.2   3.4    3.9  39.0     4.9      M    M
 10500  -12.6   9.3   320   20   10   6.2   3.4    3.3  38.0     4.4      M    M
 10250  -12.1  10.2   325   19   10   6.2   3.4    3.1  37.5     4.2      M    M
 10000  -11.7  10.9   330   18    9   6.3   3.5    2.8  37.1     3.9      M    M
  9750  -11.2  11.8   335   19   10   6.0   3.3    2.5  36.6     3.7      M    M
  9500  -10.7  12.7   340   20   10   7.4   4.0    2.3  36.1     3.4      M    M
  9250  -10.3  13.5   345   22   11   2.5   1.4    2.0  35.6     3.1      M    M
  9000  -10.5  13.1   350   23   12  -6.4  -3.5    1.0  33.9     2.2      M    M
  8750  -11.1  12.0   355   19   10  -9.9  -5.4   -0.4  31.3     0.9      M    M
  8500  -11.7  10.9   005   16    8  -3.7  -2.0   -1.8  28.8    -0.4    293  1.5
  8250  -11.6  11.1   015   14    7   4.3   2.3   -2.4  27.6    -1.0    282  1.4
  8000  -11.2  11.8   030   12    6   6.5   3.5   -2.8  27.0    -1.4    263  1.3
  7750  -10.6  12.9   025   11    6   7.7   4.2   -3.0  26.7    -1.6    239  1.2
  7500  -10.1  13.8   020   10    5   7.4   4.1   -3.1  26.4    -1.8    215  1.1
  7250   -9.5  14.9   015    9    5   7.5   4.1   -3.3  26.1    -1.9    191  1.0
  7000   -9.0  15.8   005    8    4   7.5   4.1   -3.5  25.8    -2.1    167  0.8
  6750   -8.4  16.9   015    7    4   7.5   4.1   -3.7  25.4    -2.3    143  0.7
  6500   -7.9  17.8   030    7    4   7.5   4.1   -3.8  25.1    -2.5    119  0.6
  6250   -7.3  18.9   040    7    4   7.5   4.1   -4.0  24.8    -2.7     95  0.5
  6000   -6.8  19.8   055    8    4   7.5   4.1   -4.2  24.5    -2.9     71  0.4
  5750   -6.2  20.8   060    6    3   7.3   4.0   -4.4  24.2    -3.0     47  0.2
  5500   -5.6  21.9   065    5    2   8.1   4.5   -4.5  23.8    -3.2     23  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/01/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/01/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -1.5  LI... +5.0                | K index... -6.4  LI... +7.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.5                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.7 -70.1  280  36 18   2.8   1.5 | -56.5 -69.7  280  35 18   2.7   1.5
 45000 -52.5 -62.5  290  52 27   2.8   1.5 | -52.4 -62.3  285  47 24   2.7   1.5
 40000 -51.1 -60.0  300  67 35   0.7   0.4 | -51.5 -60.7  310  59 31   0.3   0.2
 38000 -50.8 -59.4  305  73 37  -0.0  -0.0 | -51.5 -60.7  320  66 34  -1.1  -0.6
 36000 -50.8 -59.4  315  78 40  -0.0  -0.0 | -52.2 -62.0  330  77 40  -1.1  -0.6
 34000 -50.8 -59.4  325  86 44  -0.1  -0.0 | -52.8 -63.0  340  90 46  -1.5  -0.8
 32000 -48.9 -56.0  330  96 50   4.2   2.3 | -50.0 -58.0  340  99 51   6.0   3.3
 30000 -46.4 -51.5  335 108 56   4.1   2.3 | -46.5 -51.7  345 107 55   5.8   3.2
 29000 -44.2 -47.6  340 110 57   6.6   3.6 | -43.8 -46.8  345 109 56   7.6   4.2
 28000 -42.2 -44.0  340 109 56   6.6   3.6 | -41.5 -42.7  345 109 56   7.6   4.2
 27000 -40.2 -40.4  340 108 55   6.6   3.6 | -39.3 -38.7  345 109 56   7.5   4.1
 26000 -38.3 -36.9  340 106 55   6.4   3.5 | -37.2 -35.0  340 109 56   5.9   3.2
 25000 -36.3 -33.3  335 104 54   6.4   3.5 | -35.4 -31.7  340 106 55   5.9   3.2
 24000 -34.4 -29.9  335 103 53   6.4   3.5 | -33.7 -28.7  340 104 53   5.9   3.2
 23000 -32.8 -27.0  335 100 51   2.6   1.4 | -32.0 -25.6  340 101 52   5.4   3.0
 22000 -31.9 -25.4  335  94 48   3.0   1.7 | -30.3 -22.5  340  96 49   5.4   3.0
 21000 -31.0 -23.8  335  88 45   3.0   1.7 | -28.7 -19.7  340  91 47   5.4   3.0
 20000 -29.9 -21.8  335  81 42   3.9   2.1 | -27.5 -17.5  340  85 44   2.6   1.4
 19500 -29.3 -20.7  335  78 40   3.9   2.2 | -27.1 -16.8  340  81 42   2.5   1.4
 19000 -28.8 -19.8  335  74 38   3.9   2.2 | -26.8 -16.2  340  78 40   2.5   1.4
 18500 -28.2 -18.8  335  71 36   3.9   2.1 | -26.4 -15.5  335  74 38   2.5   1.4
 18000 -27.6 -17.7  330  67 35   3.5   1.9 | -26.0 -14.8  335  71 36   2.9   1.6
 17500 -27.1 -16.8  330  64 33   2.8   1.5 | -25.5 -13.9  335  68 35   3.2   1.7
 17000 -26.7 -16.1  330  60 31   2.8   1.5 | -25.1 -13.2  335  65 34   3.2   1.7
 16500 -26.2 -15.2  330  57 29   4.8   2.6 | -24.7 -12.5  335  63 32   2.2   1.2
 16000 -25.5 -13.9  330  54 28   4.6   2.5 | -24.3 -11.7  335  60 31   2.2   1.2
 15500 -24.7 -12.5  330  51 26   6.0   3.3 | -23.9 -11.0  330  57 29   3.3   1.8
 15000 -23.8 -10.8  330  49 25   6.1   3.3 | -23.5 -10.3  330  53 27   3.3   1.8
 14500 -22.4  -8.3  325  45 23   7.3   4.0 | -22.4  -8.3  325  48 25   6.2   3.4
 14000 -21.3  -6.3  325  42 22   7.3   4.0 | -21.6  -6.9  325  45 23   6.2   3.4
 13500 -20.2  -4.4  320  39 20   7.4   4.0 | -20.5  -4.9  325  42 21   7.6   4.2
 13000 -19.2  -2.6  320  36 18   7.3   4.0 | -19.4  -2.9  325  38 20   7.5   4.1
 12500 -18.0  -0.4  320  33 17   8.5   4.7 | -18.4  -1.1  325  35 18   7.4   4.1
 12000 -16.8   1.8  320  30 16   8.4   4.6 | -17.3   0.9  325  32 16   7.4   4.1
 11500 -15.7   3.7  320  27 14   6.4   3.5 | -16.2   2.8  330  29 15   7.2   4.0
 11000 -14.7   5.5  315  24 12   6.4   3.5 | -15.1   4.8  330  27 14   7.0   3.8
 10500 -13.9   7.0  315  22 11   5.3   2.9 | -14.2   6.4  335  24 12   5.6   3.1
 10250 -13.4   7.9  315  20 11   6.3   3.5 | -13.8   7.2  335  23 12   6.4   3.5
 10000 -13.0   8.6  310  19 10   2.8   1.5 | -13.3   8.1  335  22 11   3.7   2.0
  9750 -13.0   8.6  310  19 10   2.3   1.3 | -13.1   8.4  335  21 11   4.4   2.4
  9500 -12.6   9.3  310  17  9   5.3   2.9 | -12.6   9.3  335  20 10   7.6   4.2
  9250 -12.3   9.9  305  15  8   4.8   2.6 | -12.1  10.2  335  19 10   6.7   3.7
  9000 -12.0  10.4  300  13  7   2.1   1.1 | -11.7  10.9  335  17  9   3.3   1.8
  8750 -11.9  10.6  305  11  6   0.8   0.5 | -11.6  11.1  335  16  8   1.9   1.1
  8500 -11.8  10.8  315  10  5   2.5   1.4 | -11.3  11.7  330  13  7   3.6   1.9
  8250 -11.6  11.1  330   8  4   2.5   1.4 | -11.1  12.0  325  11  6   3.5   1.9
  8000 -11.4  11.5  345   8  4   3.0   1.6 | -10.8  12.6  325   9  4   4.0   2.2
  7750 -11.1  12.0  360   8  4   3.9   2.1 | -10.5  13.1  335   6  3   3.9   2.1
  7500 -10.8  12.6  010   8  4   5.2   2.9 | -10.2  13.6  345   5  2   4.3   2.4
  7250 -10.4  13.3  020   8  4   6.6   3.6 |  -9.8  14.4  005   4  2   6.0   3.3
  7000  -9.8  14.4  030   7  4   7.2   4.0 |  -9.4  15.1  030   3  2   6.5   3.6
  6750  -9.3  15.3  045   7  3   7.7   4.2 |  -8.9  16.0  060   4  2   7.1   3.9
  6500  -8.7  16.3  055   6  3   9.6   5.3 |  -8.3  17.1  075   5  2   9.5   5.2
  6250  -7.9  17.8  060   6  3  10.2   5.6 |  -7.5  18.5  075   4  2  10.7   5.9
  6000  -7.2  19.0  060   6  3  10.1   5.5 |  -6.8  19.8  075   4  2   9.9   5.4
  5750  -6.5  20.3  065   5  3  10.0   5.5 |  -6.0  21.2  075   4  2  11.8   6.5
  5500  -5.7  21.7  065   5  3  10.7   5.9 |  -5.0  23.0  075   4  2  16.8   9.2

           02/01/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/01/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -16.8  LI... +9.3               | K index... -26.2  LI... +11.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.5 -71.5  290  39 20   2.5   1.4 | -58.0 -72.4  295  36 18   2.3   1.2
 45000 -53.7 -64.7  295  46 24   2.4   1.3 | -54.6 -66.3  295  44 23   2.2   1.2
 40000 -54.3 -65.7  315  59 30  -0.7  -0.4 | -56.5 -69.7  320  60 31  -1.6  -0.9
 38000 -54.6 -66.3  325  66 34  -0.3  -0.2 | -57.1 -70.8  325  67 35   0.7   0.4
 36000 -54.8 -66.6  335  74 38  -0.3  -0.2 | -56.7 -70.1  330  71 37   0.7   0.4
 34000 -55.0 -67.0  340  84 43  -1.0  -0.5 | -56.3 -69.3  335  76 39   2.0   1.1
 32000 -51.0 -59.8  345  90 46   7.5   4.1 | -51.8 -61.2  340  77 40   7.8   4.3
 30000 -46.5 -51.7  345  95 49   7.6   4.2 | -47.2 -53.0  340  78 40   8.0   4.4
 29000 -44.4 -47.9  345  95 49   6.9   3.8 | -44.7 -48.5  340  80 41   8.3   4.5
 28000 -41.8 -43.2  345  95 49   6.9   3.8 | -42.2 -44.0  340  82 42   8.3   4.5
 27000 -39.8 -39.6  345  95 49   6.9   3.8 | -39.1 -38.4  340  85 44   8.3   4.6
 26000 -37.5 -35.5  345  96 49   8.0   4.4 | -36.8 -34.2  345  85 44   7.7   4.2
 25000 -35.1 -31.2  345  98 50   8.0   4.4 | -34.5 -30.1  345  85 44   7.7   4.2
 24000 -32.7 -26.9  345  99 51   8.0   4.4 | -32.2 -26.0  345  84 43   7.8   4.3
 23000 -30.6 -23.1  345  98 51   5.9   3.2 | -30.0 -22.0  345  81 42   7.1   3.9
 22000 -28.8 -19.8  345  95 49   5.9   3.2 | -27.8 -18.0  345  78 40   7.1   3.9
 21000 -27.1 -16.8  345  91 47   6.0   3.3 | -25.7 -14.3  345  74 38   7.1   3.9
 20000 -25.7 -14.3  345  86 44   4.2   2.3 | -23.9 -11.0  345  71 37   6.0   3.3
 19500 -25.0 -13.0  340  82 42   4.1   2.3 | -23.0  -9.4  340  70 36   6.0   3.3
 19000 -24.4 -11.9  340  79 41   4.1   2.3 | -22.1  -7.8  340  69 36   6.0   3.3
 18500 -23.8 -10.8  340  76 39   4.2   2.3 | -21.2  -6.2  340  68 35   6.0   3.3
 18000 -23.2  -9.8  340  73 37   3.2   1.7 | -20.3  -4.5  340  67 34   5.7   3.1
 17500 -22.8  -9.0  340  69 36   2.9   1.6 | -19.4  -2.9  340  65 34   5.6   3.1
 17000 -22.4  -8.3  340  66 34   2.9   1.6 | -18.5  -1.3  340  64 33   4.6   2.5
 16500 -21.9  -7.4  340  64 33   3.3   1.8 | -18.0  -0.4  340  62 32   3.5   1.9
 16000 -21.4  -6.5  340  61 32   3.5   1.9 | -17.5   0.5  340  60 31   3.4   1.9
 15500 -21.1  -6.0  335  59 30   0.9   0.5 | -17.0   1.4  340  57 30   3.0   1.6
 15000 -20.9  -5.6  335  56 29   1.0   0.6 | -16.6   2.1  340  55 28   3.1   1.7
 14500 -20.6  -5.1  335  53 27   2.9   1.6 | -16.2   2.8  340  53 27   2.0   1.1
 14000 -20.0  -4.0  325  48 25   3.5   1.9 | -15.7   3.7  340  49 25   2.0   1.1
 13500 -19.3  -2.7  325  44 23   5.5   3.0 | -15.5   4.1  335  46 24   1.9   1.0
 13000 -18.5  -1.3  320  40 21   5.6   3.1 | -15.2   4.6  335  43 22   2.2   1.2
 12500 -17.6   0.3  320  36 19   7.4   4.0 | -14.8   5.4  330  39 20   3.4   1.9
 12000 -16.5   2.3  320  33 17   7.2   3.9 | -14.3   6.3  325  35 18   3.6   2.0
 11500 -15.5   4.1  320  31 16   6.7   3.7 | -13.8   7.2  320  31 16   4.0   2.2
 11000 -14.5   5.9  325  28 14   6.4   3.5 | -13.3   8.1  320  27 14   4.7   2.6
 10500 -13.6   7.5  325  26 13   5.6   3.1 | -12.4   9.7  320  24 12   6.1   3.3
 10250 -13.2   8.2  330  25 13   6.3   3.5 | -11.9  10.6  320  22 11   7.0   3.9
 10000 -12.8   9.0  330  24 13   3.8   2.1 | -11.5  11.3  325  21 11   3.4   1.9
  9750 -12.6   9.3  330  24 12   4.7   2.6 | -11.3  11.7  325  20 10   4.2   2.3
  9500 -12.0  10.4  335  22 12   7.9   4.3 | -10.8  12.6  325  19 10   8.6   4.7
  9250 -11.5  11.3  335  21 11   6.7   3.7 | -10.2  13.6  330  18  9   7.1   3.9
  9000 -11.1  12.0  335  20 10   5.1   2.8 |  -9.7  14.5  330  16  8   5.3   2.9
  8750 -10.7  12.7  340  18  9   5.3   2.9 |  -9.4  15.1  330  15  8   5.6   3.1
  8500 -10.2  13.6  340  17  9   7.0   3.8 |  -8.9  16.0  335  14  7   7.1   3.9
  8250  -9.8  14.4  340  15  8   5.8   3.2 |  -8.4  16.9  335  13  7   6.6   3.6
  8000  -9.4  15.1  340  13  7   5.1   2.8 |  -7.9  17.8  335  11  6   6.9   3.8
  7750  -9.0  15.8  340  11  6   5.0   2.7 |  -7.4  18.7  335  10  5   6.1   3.3
  7500  -8.6  16.5  335   8  4   4.9   2.7 |  -7.0  19.4  335   8  4   5.1   2.8
  7250  -8.2  17.2  340   6  3   5.6   3.1 |  -6.6  20.1  335   7  3   4.6   2.5
  7000  -7.8  18.0  345   4  2   5.3   2.9 |  -6.3  20.7  330   5  2   5.0   2.7
  6750  -7.4  18.7  005   2  1   7.2   3.9 |  -6.0  21.2  315   3  2   2.7   1.5
  6500  -6.8  19.8  050   1  0  10.0   5.5 |  -5.8  21.6  255   2  1   5.2   2.8
  6250  -6.0  21.2  055   1  0  10.5   5.7 |  -5.2  22.6  220   2  1   9.5   5.2
  6000  -5.3  22.5  065   1  0   9.6   5.3 |  -4.6  23.7  195   2  1   8.3   4.6
  5750  -4.5  23.9  065   1  1  11.6   6.4 |  -4.0  24.8  180   3  2   8.0   4.4
  5500  -3.4  25.9  070   1  1  17.3   9.5 |  -3.4  25.9  180   3  2   7.2   3.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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