Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 141234
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0534 MST Sunday, February 14, 2016

This forecast is for Sunday, February 14, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 54.8 F/12.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 6534 ft MSL (1695 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 45.0 F/7.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1400 MST
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5473 ft MSL (633 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/15....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:07:13 / 17:48:31 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 41 min 19 sec (641 min 19 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:28:11 MST... 37.91 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/14/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 5025 ft MSL (186 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 9095 ft MSL (4256 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15842 ft MSL (11003 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10552 ft MSL (5712 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.2
K index......................... -14.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.6 -73.5   285   47   24   5.1   2.8  105.6 222.1    55.7      M    M
 45000  -54.9 -66.8   290   49   25  -1.7  -1.0   87.0 188.6    48.4      M    M
 40000  -54.8 -66.6   300   45   23   6.6   3.6   63.7 146.7    36.6      M    M
 38000  -63.1 -81.6   310   62   32   4.3   2.3   41.1 106.1    22.7      M    M
 36000  -60.2 -76.4   330   76   39   4.8   2.6   36.8  98.2    20.3      M    M
 34000  -57.6 -71.7   335   74   38   9.8   5.4   32.1  89.8    17.6      M    M
 32000  -52.3 -62.1   325   60   31   7.9   4.4   31.3  88.3    17.5      M    M
 30000  -48.2 -54.8   310   62   32   7.0   3.9   28.8  83.9    16.1      M    M
 29000  -45.6 -50.1   305   59   30   9.1   5.0   28.4  83.2    16.0      M    M
 28000  -42.8 -45.0   305   56   29   9.2   5.1   28.2  82.8    16.0      M    M
 27000  -40.1 -40.2   300   53   28   9.3   5.1   28.0  82.4    16.1      M    M
 26000  -39.0 -38.2   295   51   26   3.7   2.0   25.7  78.2    14.4      M    M
 25000  -36.8 -34.2   290   49   25   7.7   4.2   24.7  76.4    13.8      M    M
 24000  -34.1 -29.4   285   47   24   9.9   5.5   24.4  75.9    13.7      M    M
 23000  -31.4 -24.5   280   45   23   9.4   5.2   24.1  75.3    13.7      M    M
 22000  -28.6 -19.5   280   45   23   9.4   5.1   23.9  75.0    13.7      M    M
 21000  -25.9 -14.6   280   45   23   8.9   4.9   23.7  74.7    13.7      M    M
 20000  -22.5  -8.5   280   45   23   8.9   4.9   23.4  74.2    13.7      M    M
 19500  -21.2  -6.2   285   46   24   8.9   4.9   23.3  73.9    13.6      M    M
 19000  -19.8  -3.6   290   47   24   8.9   4.9   23.1  73.6    13.6      M    M
 18500  -18.5  -1.3   290   47   24   9.2   5.0   23.0  73.4    13.6      M    M
 18000  -17.1   1.2   290   46   24   9.2   5.0   22.9  73.2    13.5      M    M
 17500  -15.8   3.6   290   45   23   7.8   4.3   22.7  72.9    13.5      M    M
 17000  -14.7   5.5   295   44   23   7.2   3.9   22.3  72.1    13.2      M    M
 16500  -13.6   7.5   295   44   22   7.2   3.9   21.9  71.4    12.9      M    M
 16000  -12.5   9.5   295   43   22   7.2   3.9   21.5  70.6    12.6      M    M
 15500  -11.5  11.3   295   41   21   7.2   3.9   21.0  69.8    12.2      M    M
 15000  -10.4  13.3   295   39   20   7.2   3.9   20.5  69.0    11.9      M    M
 14500   -9.3  15.3   295   37   19   7.2   3.9   20.1  68.2    11.6      M    M
 14000   -8.3  17.1   295   35   18   7.2   3.9   19.7  67.5    11.3      M    M
 13500   -7.2  19.0   290   32   16   7.2   3.9   19.2  66.6    10.9      M    M
 13000   -6.1  21.0   285   28   15   7.1   3.9   18.8  65.8    10.5      M    M
 12500   -5.0  23.0   280   26   13   6.1   3.4   18.4  65.1    10.2      M    M
 12000   -5.2  22.6   275   23   12  -5.3  -2.9   16.7  62.0     8.6      M    M
 11500   -5.7  21.7   280   22   11   0.4   0.2   14.6  58.3     6.7      M    M
 11000   -5.5  22.1   280   21   11   5.1   2.8   13.3  55.9     5.4      M    M
 10500   -4.1  24.6   285   20   10   8.8   4.8   13.1  55.7     5.4      M    M
 10250   -3.4  25.9   290   19   10   9.4   5.1   13.1  55.6     5.3      M    M
 10000   -2.7  27.1   290   19   10   9.8   5.4   13.1  55.6     5.3      M    M
  9750   -2.0  28.4   285   18    9  10.0   5.5   13.1  55.6     5.4      M    M
  9500   -1.2  29.8   285   17    9  10.1   5.6   13.1  55.6     5.4      M    M
  9250   -0.5  31.1   285   17    9   9.5   5.2   13.2  55.7     5.4      M    M
  9000    0.2  32.4   280   16    8   7.9   4.3   13.1  55.5     5.4      M    M
  8750    0.7  33.3   280   14    7   7.0   3.8   12.9  55.2     5.2      M    M
  8500    1.2  34.2   280   12    6   8.2   4.5   12.7  54.8     5.0      M    M
  8250    1.8  35.2   285   10    5   4.4   2.4   12.5  54.5     4.8      M    M
  8000    1.7  35.1   285    7    4  -5.4  -3.0   11.7  53.1     4.0      M    M
  7750    1.1  34.0   275    6    3  -1.7  -0.9   10.5  50.9     2.7      M    M
  7500    1.4  34.5   260    5    3   7.6   4.2   10.1  50.1     2.3      M    M
  7250    1.9  35.4   235    5    2   5.8   3.2    9.9  49.8     2.0      M    M
  7000    2.1  35.8   215    5    2   0.5   0.3    9.4  48.9     1.5      M    M
  6750    2.0  35.6   195    5    3  -0.2  -0.1    8.6  47.4     0.7      M    M
  6500    2.1  35.8   175    6    3   1.1   0.6    7.9  46.2     0.1      M    M
  6250    2.2  36.0   160    7    4   1.2   0.7    7.2  45.0    -0.6    141  0.7
  6000    2.3  36.1   150    9    4   1.4   0.8    6.6  43.9    -1.2    130  0.7
  5750    2.4  36.3   145    9    5   2.3   1.2    6.0  42.7    -1.8    119  0.6
  5500    2.5  36.5   140    9    5  -1.2  -0.7    5.3  41.6    -2.4    109  0.6
  5250    2.0  35.6   135    9    5 -14.6  -8.0    4.1  39.3    -3.7    118  0.6
  5000    0.4  32.7   125    9    5 -26.5 -14.6    1.7  35.1    -6.0    157  0.8

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/14/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/14/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +11.9  LI... +279.4             | K index... +14.8  LI... +278.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.4 -69.5  310  44 22   1.0   0.5 | -56.9 -70.4  305  46 24   0.4   0.2
 45000 -54.9 -66.8  300  45 23   1.3   0.7 | -56.2 -69.2  300  61 31   0.6   0.3
 40000 -58.0 -72.4  320  50 26  -2.2  -1.2 | -59.3 -74.7  315  71 37  -2.3  -1.2
 38000 -58.7 -73.7  325  57 29   0.5   0.3 | -60.1 -76.2  320  74 38   0.9   0.5
 36000 -58.4 -73.1  325  68 35   0.5   0.3 | -59.5 -75.1  320  69 35   0.9   0.5
 34000 -58.0 -72.4  325  79 41   5.1   2.8 | -58.4 -73.1  315  65 33   9.7   5.3
 32000 -52.7 -62.9  325  78 40   7.8   4.3 | -53.2 -63.8  310  63 33   8.7   4.8
 30000 -47.9 -54.2  325  74 38   8.9   4.9 | -47.9 -54.2  310  62 32   9.5   5.2
 29000 -45.2 -49.4  320  68 35   8.9   4.9 | -45.0 -49.0  315  61 32   9.5   5.2
 28000 -42.6 -44.7  320  63 32   8.9   4.9 | -42.2 -44.0  320  61 31   9.5   5.2
 27000 -39.9 -39.8  320  57 29   8.8   4.8 | -39.3 -38.7  320  61 31   9.5   5.2
 26000 -37.3 -35.1  315  54 28   8.6   4.7 | -36.5 -33.7  320  58 30   9.3   5.1
 25000 -34.7 -30.5  315  50 26   8.6   4.7 | -33.7 -28.7  320  55 28   9.3   5.1
 24000 -32.1 -25.8  310  47 24   8.6   4.7 | -30.9 -23.6  315  52 27   9.3   5.1
 23000 -29.6 -21.3  310  46 24   8.4   4.6 | -28.7 -19.7  315  50 26   7.3   4.0
 22000 -27.1 -16.8  305  45 23   8.5   4.6 | -26.5 -15.7  310  48 25   7.3   4.0
 21000 -24.6 -12.3  305  44 23   8.0   4.4 | -24.3 -11.7  305  47 24   7.1   3.9
 20000 -22.3  -8.1  305  44 23   7.8   4.3 | -21.8  -7.2  305  44 23   6.8   3.8
 19500 -21.1  -6.0  305  44 22   7.9   4.3 | -20.8  -5.4  305  43 22   6.9   3.8
 19000 -20.0  -4.0  300  44 22   7.8   4.3 | -19.8  -3.6  310  42 22   6.8   3.8
 18500 -18.8  -1.8  300  44 22   7.2   4.0 | -18.8  -1.8  310  41 21   7.1   3.9
 18000 -17.8  -0.0  305  44 23   6.6   3.6 | -17.7   0.1  310  41 21   7.1   3.9
 17500 -16.9   1.6  305  44 23   6.7   3.7 | -16.6   2.1  310  41 21   6.8   3.7
 17000 -16.0   3.2  300  44 23   4.7   2.6 | -15.7   3.7  310  39 20   6.0   3.3
 16500 -15.3   4.5  300  43 22   4.9   2.7 | -14.9   5.2  310  37 19   6.0   3.3
 16000 -14.6   5.7  300  42 22   4.4   2.4 | -14.0   6.8  310  36 18   6.2   3.4
 15500 -14.0   6.8  300  41 21   4.2   2.3 | -13.1   8.4  310  35 18   6.2   3.4
 15000 -13.0   8.6  300  38 20   4.7   2.6 | -12.2  10.0  310  34 18   5.1   2.8
 14500 -12.3   9.9  300  37 19   4.5   2.5 | -11.5  11.3  310  33 17   5.0   2.7
 14000 -11.5  11.3  300  35 18   6.8   3.7 | -10.8  12.6  310  31 16   4.6   2.5
 13500 -10.4  13.3  300  34 17   6.9   3.8 | -10.1  13.8  310  31 16   4.3   2.4
 13000  -9.2  15.4  305  33 17   8.6   4.7 |  -9.5  14.9  310  31 16   4.1   2.3
 12500  -7.9  17.8  305  32 16   9.0   4.9 |  -8.9  16.0  305  30 15   3.9   2.2
 12000  -6.6  20.1  305  31 16   7.7   4.2 |  -8.3  17.1  300  29 15   3.8   2.1
 11500  -5.5  22.1  305  30 15   7.3   4.0 |  -7.8  18.0  300  27 14   3.6   2.0
 11000  -4.5  23.9  305  28 15   6.8   3.8 |  -7.3  18.9  300  25 13   3.7   2.0
 10500  -3.5  25.7  300  26 14   7.6   4.2 |  -6.7  19.9  295  23 12   3.9   2.1
 10250  -3.0  26.6  300  25 13   3.0   1.6 |  -6.5  20.3  295  23 12   3.1   1.7
 10000  -2.9  26.8  300  24 13   2.7   1.5 |  -6.3  20.7  295  22 11   2.5   1.4
  9750  -2.5  27.5  295  23 12   7.0   3.8 |  -6.0  21.2  290  21 11   5.0   2.7
  9500  -2.0  28.4  295  21 11   6.2   3.4 |  -5.6  21.9  290  21 11   6.8   3.8
  9250  -1.6  29.1  290  20 10   5.1   2.8 |  -5.1  22.8  285  20 10   5.6   3.1
  9000  -1.3  29.7  290  18 10   4.1   2.3 |  -4.7  23.5  285  19 10   4.1   2.3
  8750  -0.9  30.4  285  17  9   5.3   2.9 |  -4.4  24.1  285  18  9   4.7   2.6
  8500  -0.5  31.1  280  15  8   5.3   2.9 |  -4.0  24.8  280  17  9   5.0   2.8
  8250  -0.1  31.8  275  13  7   5.2   2.8 |  -3.6  25.5  280  16  8   6.6   3.6
  8000   0.2  32.4  275  12  6   4.9   2.7 |  -3.0  26.6  275  16  8   8.1   4.4
  7750   0.6  33.1  275  11  5   5.3   2.9 |  -2.4  27.7  275  15  8   8.2   4.5
  7500   1.0  33.8  270   9  5   3.6   2.0 |  -1.8  28.8  275  14  7   8.4   4.6
  7250   1.1  34.0  270   8  4   1.6   0.9 |  -1.2  29.8  275  12  6   7.7   4.2
  7000   1.2  34.2  265   7  4   1.9   1.0 |  -0.6  30.9  275  10  5   7.1   3.9
  6750   1.3  34.3  260   6  3   1.3   0.7 |  -0.0  32.0  275   9  4   8.8   4.8
  6500   1.4  34.5  255   5  3   0.7   0.4 |   0.6  33.1  275   7  4   5.1   2.8
  6250   1.4  34.5  250   4  2  -0.3  -0.1 |   0.7  33.3  270   6  3   0.9   0.5
  6000   1.4  34.5  240   3  2   2.4   1.3 |   0.8  33.4  270   4  2   1.6   0.9
  5750   1.6  34.9  210   2  1  -2.0  -1.1 |   0.9  33.6  260   3  1   3.3   1.8
  5500   1.0  33.8  185   2  1  -9.2  -5.0 |   1.3  34.3  260   2  1   9.2   5.0
  5250   0.4  32.7  160   2  1  -3.4  -1.9 |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/14/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/14/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +16.2  LI... +279.2             | K index... +13.0  LI... +277.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.8 -68.4  320  45 23   0.6   0.3 | -56.5 -69.7  330  36 19   0.4   0.2
 45000 -55.0 -67.0  330  60 31   0.8   0.5 | -55.8 -68.4  330  50 26   0.8   0.5
 40000 -59.5 -75.1  320  86 44  -3.3  -1.8 | -62.3 -80.1  325 102 52  -4.6  -2.6
 38000 -60.2 -76.4  320  91 47   3.0   1.6 | -63.0 -81.4  325 114 58   5.3   2.9
 36000 -58.4 -73.1  330  84 43   3.0   1.6 | -59.8 -75.6  330 108 56   5.3   2.9
 34000 -56.0 -68.8  335  79 41   7.7   4.2 | -56.5 -69.7  340 104 54   7.9   4.4
 32000 -51.7 -61.1  330  80 41   7.3   4.0 | -50.6 -59.1  335 108 56   8.8   4.8
 30000 -47.3 -53.1  330  78 40   7.6   4.2 | -45.3 -49.5  335 111 57   8.5   4.7
 29000 -45.0 -49.0  330  72 37   7.6   4.2 | -42.7 -44.9  335 111 57   8.6   4.7
 28000 -42.7 -44.9  330  66 34   7.6   4.2 | -40.1 -40.2  335 112 58   8.6   4.7
 27000 -40.4 -40.7  325  60 31   8.0   4.4 | -37.5 -35.5  340 113 58   8.5   4.7
 26000 -37.8 -36.0  325  59 31   8.7   4.8 | -35.0 -31.0  340 108 55   8.4   4.6
 25000 -35.2 -31.4  325  59 31   8.7   4.8 | -32.5 -26.5  335 102 53   8.4   4.6
 24000 -32.6 -26.7  325  59 31   8.8   4.8 | -30.0 -22.0  335  97 50   8.2   4.5
 23000 -29.9 -21.8  325  60 31   9.1   5.0 | -28.2 -18.8  335  88 45   5.2   2.9
 22000 -27.1 -16.8  325  61 31   9.1   5.0 | -26.6 -15.9  330  78 40   5.3   2.9
 21000 -24.4 -11.9  325  61 31   8.9   4.9 | -25.0 -13.0  325  68 35   6.6   3.6
 20000 -21.8  -7.2  325  58 30   8.8   4.8 | -22.7  -8.9  325  64 33   7.8   4.3
 19500 -20.5  -4.9  325  56 29   8.8   4.8 | -21.6  -6.9  325  62 32   7.8   4.3
 19000 -19.2  -2.6  325  55 28   8.8   4.8 | -20.4  -4.7  330  61 31   7.8   4.3
 18500 -17.8  -0.0  325  53 27   7.9   4.3 | -19.3  -2.7  330  59 30   7.7   4.2
 18000 -16.8   1.8  325  50 26   6.8   3.8 | -18.1  -0.6  330  58 30   7.4   4.1
 17500 -15.8   3.6  325  48 25   7.1   3.9 | -17.0   1.4  330  56 29   7.6   4.2
 17000 -15.0   5.0  325  45 23   4.3   2.4 | -16.0   3.2  330  55 28   6.0   3.3
 16500 -14.4   6.1  325  42 21   4.6   2.5 | -15.2   4.6  330  53 27   6.1   3.3
 16000 -13.7   7.3  325  39 20   4.7   2.6 | -14.2   6.4  330  51 26   7.0   3.8
 15500 -12.7   9.1  325  32 17   4.6   2.5 | -12.6   9.3  330  47 24   7.7   4.2
 15000 -11.9  10.6  325  29 15   5.9   3.2 | -11.6  11.1  325  43 22   5.3   2.9
 14500 -11.1  12.0  325  27 14   5.9   3.3 | -10.9  12.4  325  38 20   5.2   2.8
 14000 -10.2  13.6  325  25 13   4.9   2.7 | -10.1  13.8  320  35 18   4.9   2.7
 13500  -9.6  14.7  320  23 12   4.7   2.6 |  -9.4  15.1  320  33 17   4.8   2.6
 13000  -8.9  16.0  320  21 11   4.3   2.4 |  -8.8  16.2  320  32 17   3.1   1.7
 12500  -8.3  17.1  315  21 11   4.2   2.3 |  -8.5  16.7  315  30 15   2.1   1.1
 12000  -7.7  18.1  310  20 10   4.3   2.3 |  -8.2  17.2  310  27 14   4.2   2.3
 11500  -7.0  19.4  310  20 10   4.3   2.3 |  -7.4  18.7  310  27 14   5.7   3.1
 11000  -6.4  20.5  305  20 10   4.8   2.6 |  -6.6  20.1  305  27 14   4.7   2.6
 10500  -5.7  21.7  305  20 10   5.5   3.0 |  -6.0  21.2  300  25 13   4.7   2.6
 10250  -5.3  22.5  300  20 10   2.9   1.6 |  -5.7  21.7  300  24 12   1.7   1.0
 10000  -5.2  22.6  300  20 10   2.4   1.3 |  -5.6  21.9  300  22 11   2.6   1.4
  9750  -4.9  23.2  300  19 10   4.8   2.6 |  -5.2  22.6  295  20 10   6.1   3.4
  9500  -4.6  23.7  295  19 10   4.9   2.7 |  -4.8  23.4  285  18 10   5.2   2.9
  9250  -4.3  24.3  295  18  9   3.3   1.8 |  -4.4  24.1  280  17  9   5.4   3.0
  9000  -4.1  24.6  290  17  9   2.2   1.2 |  -4.0  24.8  275  17  9   6.7   3.7
  8750  -3.9  25.0  285  16  8   4.0   2.2 |  -3.4  25.9  275  17  9   8.6   4.7
  8500  -3.6  25.5  280  15  8   4.6   2.5 |  -2.7  27.1  270  17  9   9.0   4.9
  8250  -3.2  26.2  275  14  7   6.3   3.5 |  -2.0  28.4  270  17  9   8.6   4.7
  8000  -2.6  27.3  270  12  6   7.4   4.1 |  -1.4  29.5  265  17  9   7.8   4.3
  7750  -2.1  28.2  265  11  6   7.3   4.0 |  -0.9  30.4  265  16  8   6.7   3.7
  7500  -1.6  29.1  260  10  5   6.4   3.5 |  -0.5  31.1  265  15  8   5.1   2.8
  7250  -1.1  30.0  255   9  5   5.2   2.9 |  -0.2  31.6  265  13  7   3.9   2.1
  7000  -0.7  30.7  245   7  4   5.3   2.9 |   0.1  32.2  265  10  5   3.7   2.0
  6750  -0.4  31.3  230   6  3   5.4   3.0 |   0.3  32.5  265   8  4   3.8   2.1
  6500   0.0  32.0  215   5  2   5.4   3.0 |   0.6  33.1  260   6  3   5.2   2.8
  6250   0.4  32.7  205   4  2   5.4   3.0 |   1.0  33.8  255   4  2   6.1   3.4
  6000   0.8  33.4  190   4  2   5.4   3.0 |   1.4  34.5  250   3  1   5.8   3.2
  5750   1.2  34.2  175   3  2   7.4   4.1 |   1.8  35.2  230   1  1   4.8   2.6
  5500   1.8  35.2  175   3  2   9.2   5.1 |   2.1  35.8  235   1  1   3.8   2.1
  5250   2.5  36.5  175   3  2   7.9   4.3 |   2.4  36.3  240   1  1   4.6   2.5
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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