Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 301015
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0415 MDT Thursday, July 30, 2015

This forecast is for Thursday, July 30, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 72.9 F/22.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 571 ft/min (2.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 14671 ft MSL (7502 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 78.0 F/26.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10936 ft MSL (3766 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 07/31....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:57:58 / 20:13:11 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 15 min 14 sec (855 min 14 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:05:22 MDT... 69.47 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 07/30/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16008 ft MSL (8839 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14107 ft MSL (6938 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14341 ft MSL (7172 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.8
K index......................... +23.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -66.8 -88.2   265   28   14   2.1   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -61.3 -78.3   260   42   22   6.1   3.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -51.6 -60.9   255   48   25   7.8   4.3      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -47.0 -52.6   250   47   24   7.8   4.3      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -41.7 -43.1   250   46   24   8.6   4.7      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -36.5 -33.7   255   46   24   8.6   4.7      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -31.4 -24.5   255   46   24   8.6   4.7      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -27.5 -17.5   265   38   20   6.5   3.6   43.2 109.8    13.6      M    M
 29000  -25.5 -13.9   265   34   18   6.5   3.6   42.0 107.7    12.9      M    M
 28000  -23.5 -10.3   270   30   16   6.8   3.8   40.9 105.7    12.2      M    M
 27000  -21.5  -6.7   270   26   13   6.9   3.8   39.7 103.5    11.4      M    M
 26000  -19.4  -2.9   270   22   11   6.9   3.8   38.7 101.6    10.7      M    M
 25000  -17.3   0.9   270   18    9   6.2   3.4   37.8 100.0    10.1      M    M
 24000  -15.7   3.7   265   14    7   5.3   2.9   36.1  96.9     8.7      M    M
 23000  -14.2   6.4   255   11    5   5.5   3.0   34.5  94.1     7.5      M    M
 22000  -12.2  10.0   245    7    3   6.4   3.5   32.8  91.1     6.0      M    M
 21000  -10.4  13.3   235    4    2   6.4   3.5   31.6  88.8     4.9      M    M
 20000   -8.5  16.7   185    1    1   6.5   3.6   30.5  86.8     3.9      M    M
 19500   -7.6  18.3   130    2    1   7.0   3.8   30.0  85.9     3.4      M    M
 19000   -6.5  20.3   110    2    1   7.3   4.0   29.5  85.2     3.0      M    M
 18500   -5.4  22.3   095    3    1   7.4   4.0   29.1  84.5     2.7      M    M
 18000   -4.3  24.3   100    3    2   7.0   3.8   28.7  83.7     2.3      M    M
 17500   -3.3  26.1   110    4    2   7.1   3.9   28.3  82.9     1.9      M    M
 17000   -2.2  28.0   120    4    2   7.5   4.1   27.8  82.1     1.5      M    M
 16500   -1.1  30.0   130    4    2   7.8   4.3   27.5  81.5     1.2      M    M
 16000    0.0  32.0   145    5    2   7.9   4.3   27.2  80.9     0.9      M    M
 15500    1.1  34.0   150    4    2   7.9   4.4   26.9  80.4     0.6      M    M
 15000    2.3  36.1   155    4    2   8.0   4.4   26.6  79.9     0.2      M    M
 14500    3.4  38.1   165    3    2   7.9   4.3   26.3  79.3    -0.1    658  3.3
 14000    4.5  40.1   175    2    1   7.9   4.3   26.0  78.8    -0.5    610  3.1
 13500    5.6  42.1   195    2    1   8.0   4.4   25.7  78.3    -0.8    562  2.9
 13000    6.7  44.1   215    1    1   8.0   4.4   25.4  77.8    -1.2    514  2.6
 12500    7.8  46.0   260    1    0   6.9   3.8   25.2  77.3    -1.5    466  2.4
 12000    8.8  47.8   240    1    0   8.6   4.7   24.8  76.6    -1.9    421  2.1
 11750    9.4  48.9   225    1    0   8.4   4.6   24.7  76.4    -2.1    395  2.0
 11500   10.0  50.0   215    1    1   7.5   4.1   24.6  76.2    -2.2    370  1.9
 11250   10.5  50.9   200    2    1   6.2   3.4   24.3  75.8    -2.5    349  1.8
 11000   10.9  51.6   195    3    1   6.2   3.4   24.0  75.3    -2.8    329  1.7
 10750   11.3  52.3   195    4    2   6.3   3.4   23.8  74.8    -3.1    309  1.6
 10500   11.8  53.2   195    5    3   5.4   3.0   23.5  74.3    -3.4    288  1.5
 10250   12.1  53.8   195    6    3   4.1   2.3   23.1  73.5    -3.8    272  1.4
 10000   12.4  54.3   195    8    4   4.2   2.3   22.6  72.8    -4.3    256  1.3
  9750   12.7  54.9   195    9    5   4.8   2.6   22.2  72.0    -4.7    240  1.2
  9500   13.3  55.9   195   11    6   4.7   2.6   21.5  70.7    -5.5    205  1.0
  9250   13.7  56.7   200   12    6   4.6   2.5   21.1  70.0    -6.0    188  1.0
  9000   14.0  57.2   200   12    6   5.2   2.8   20.7  69.3    -6.4    171  0.9
  8750   14.3  57.7   200   13    7   3.0   1.6   20.3  68.6    -6.8    154  0.8
  8500   14.4  57.9   200   13    7   0.9   0.5   19.7  67.5    -7.5    144  0.7
  8250   14.4  57.9   200   13    7   1.6   0.9   19.1  66.3    -8.1    135  0.7
  8000   14.5  58.1   200   13    6   1.0   0.5   18.4  65.2    -8.8    125  0.6
  7750   14.4  57.9   200   11    6  -5.2  -2.9   17.6  63.7    -9.7    122  0.6
  7500   13.6  56.5   195    8    4 -14.1  -7.7   16.1  61.0   -11.2    139  0.7
  7250   12.8  55.0   195    5    3   1.3   0.7   14.7  58.4   -12.8    155  0.8
  7000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/30/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       07/30/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +22.1  LI... +269.9             | K index... +22.4  LI... +268.8
CAPE... +294.8  CIN... -67.1               | CAPE... +775.6  CIN... -2.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.7 -88.1  260  26 13   2.7   1.5 | -67.1 -88.8  260  28 14   2.4   1.3
 45000 -60.9 -77.6  260  36 19   5.8   3.2 | -61.2 -78.2  260  37 19   6.4   3.5
 40000 -51.6 -60.9  260  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -51.2 -60.2  265  43 22   7.8   4.3
 38000 -46.8 -52.2  260  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -46.6 -51.9  265  40 21   7.8   4.3
 36000 -41.4 -42.5  265  42 21   8.3   4.5 | -41.3 -42.3  260  37 19   8.3   4.6
 34000 -36.4 -33.5  265  39 20   8.3   4.5 | -36.3 -33.3  265  35 18   8.2   4.5
 32000 -31.5 -24.7  265  37 19   8.5   4.7 | -31.4 -24.5  265  34 17   8.4   4.6
 30000 -27.1 -16.8  265  34 17   7.4   4.1 | -26.9 -16.4  265  30 16   7.5   4.1
 29000 -24.9 -12.8  265  32 16   7.4   4.1 | -24.7 -12.5  265  29 15   7.5   4.1
 28000 -22.7  -8.9  270  30 15   6.6   3.6 | -22.5  -8.5  270  27 14   6.8   3.7
 27000 -20.7  -5.3  265  26 13   6.7   3.7 | -20.4  -4.7  270  24 12   6.9   3.8
 26000 -18.7  -1.7  265  22 11   6.7   3.7 | -18.4  -1.1  270  22 11   6.9   3.8
 25000 -16.6   2.1  260  19 10   6.2   3.4 | -16.3   2.7  270  20 10   6.6   3.6
 24000 -15.0   5.0  255  16  8   5.6   3.1 | -14.4   6.1  265  18  9   6.4   3.5
 23000 -12.9   8.8  245  14  7   5.8   3.2 | -12.0  10.4  260  16  8   6.4   3.5
 22000 -11.3  11.7  235  11  6   5.3   2.9 | -10.2  13.6  255  14  7   4.3   2.4
 21000  -9.8  14.4  235   7  3   5.5   3.0 |  -8.9  16.0  255   9  5   4.7   2.6
 20000  -8.3  17.1  220   2  1   5.6   3.1 |  -7.7  18.1  265   4  2   5.1   2.8
 19500  -7.5  18.5  135   1  0   6.2   3.4 |  -7.0  19.4  285   2  1   5.6   3.1
 19000  -6.5  20.3  075   2  1   6.5   3.6 |  -6.1  21.0  345   2  1   5.8   3.2
 18500  -5.5  22.1  060   3  1   6.5   3.6 |  -5.3  22.5  010   4  2   5.8   3.2
 18000  -4.5  23.9  065   3  2   7.3   4.0 |  -4.3  24.3  015   5  3   7.6   4.2
 17500  -3.4  25.9  080   3  2   7.2   4.0 |  -3.2  26.2  020   6  3   7.5   4.1
 17000  -2.4  27.7  090   4  2   7.3   4.0 |  -2.1  28.2  020   7  4   7.2   4.0
 16500  -1.4  29.5  085   4  2   7.4   4.0 |  -1.1  30.0  025   8  4   7.1   3.9
 16000  -0.3  31.5  080   3  2   7.4   4.1 |  -0.2  31.6  025   8  4   7.2   3.9
 15500   0.8  33.4  075   4  2   7.6   4.2 |   0.8  33.4  025   8  4   7.2   3.9
 15000   1.8  35.2  070   4  2   7.6   4.2 |   1.8  35.2  030   8  4   7.2   4.0
 14500   3.0  37.4  070   4  2   8.3   4.5 |   2.8  37.0  030   8  4   7.5   4.1
 14000   4.1  39.4  065   5  2   8.3   4.5 |   3.9  39.0  035   8  4   7.4   4.1
 13500   5.3  41.5  065   5  3   8.1   4.5 |   5.0  41.0  035   7  4   7.6   4.2
 13000   6.4  43.5  065   5  2   8.1   4.4 |   6.1  43.0  035   7  4   7.7   4.2
 12500   7.6  45.7  065   5  2   6.5   3.5 |   7.2  45.0  040   6  3   6.1   3.3
 12000   8.6  47.5  075   4  2   8.5   4.7 |   8.1  46.6  035   6  3   8.1   4.5
 11750   9.1  48.4  080   4  2   8.3   4.6 |   8.7  47.7  035   5  3   7.8   4.3
 11500   9.7  49.5  085   3  2   7.3   4.0 |   9.2  48.6  035   5  3   7.7   4.2
 11250  10.2  50.4  100   3  1   6.0   3.3 |   9.7  49.5  040   5  2   7.4   4.1
 11000  10.6  51.1  115   2  1   6.9   3.8 |  10.2  50.4  045   4  2   8.4   4.6
 10750  11.1  52.0  135   2  1   7.4   4.1 |  10.8  51.4  050   4  2   9.0   5.0
 10500  11.6  52.9  160   2  1   7.1   3.9 |  11.4  52.5  055   4  2   9.1   5.0
 10250  12.1  53.8  175   2  1   7.0   3.8 |  12.0  53.6  060   3  2   9.3   5.1
 10000  12.6  54.7  190   3  1   7.0   3.9 |  12.7  54.9  065   3  2   9.2   5.1
  9750  13.1  55.6  205   3  1   7.9   4.3 |  13.3  55.9  075   3  2   8.7   4.8
  9500  14.1  57.4  230   3  2   6.2   3.4 |  14.7  58.5  085   3  2  10.2   5.6
  9250  14.6  58.3  240   3  2   6.6   3.6 |  15.4  59.7  090   3  2   9.9   5.5
  9000  15.0  59.0  245   4  2   5.8   3.2 |  16.2  61.2  095   3  2  10.2   5.6
  8750  15.4  59.7  245   4  2   5.6   3.1 |  16.9  62.4  095   3  2  10.6   5.8
  8500  15.8  60.4  235   4  2   6.0   3.3 |  17.7  63.9  100   3  2  10.7   5.9
  8250  16.3  61.3  230   4  2   6.5   3.6 |  18.5  65.3  100   4  2  10.6   5.8
  8000  16.7  62.1  225   4  2   4.4   2.4 |  19.3  66.7  105   4  2  10.9   6.0
  7750  16.9  62.4  215   3  2   8.9   4.9 |  20.2  68.4  110   4  2  17.3   9.5
  7500  18.0  64.4  205   3  2  22.7  12.4 |  21.9  71.4  110   4  2  26.8  14.7
  7250  19.2  66.6  190   3  2  -3.5  -1.9 |  23.5  74.3  110   4  2  10.3   5.7
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/30/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       07/30/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +24.9  LI... +269.1             | K index... +27.0  LI... +270.5
CAPE... +828.6  CIN... -1.2                | CAPE... +406.8  CIN... -2.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -67.7 -89.9  255  32 17   2.0   1.1 | -68.0 -90.4  255  37 19   1.1   0.6
 45000 -61.7 -79.1  255  42 21   7.2   3.9 | -62.6 -80.7  250  48 25   7.6   4.1
 40000 -50.7 -59.3  260  44 23   7.9   4.3 | -51.0 -59.8  260  47 24   8.5   4.7
 38000 -46.0 -50.8  260  42 22   7.9   4.3 | -46.0 -50.8  260  46 24   8.5   4.7
 36000 -40.6 -41.1  260  40 21   7.9   4.3 | -40.3 -40.5  265  44 23   7.8   4.3
 34000 -35.9 -32.6  265  36 19   7.9   4.3 | -35.6 -32.1  265  39 20   7.9   4.3
 32000 -31.2 -24.2  265  33 17   8.4   4.6 | -30.8 -23.4  270  34 18   8.2   4.5
 30000 -26.6 -15.9  265  30 15   7.7   4.2 | -26.5 -15.7  270  30 15   7.4   4.0
 29000 -24.3 -11.7  265  28 15   7.7   4.2 | -24.3 -11.7  275  28 14   7.4   4.1
 28000 -22.2  -8.0  265  26 14   6.6   3.6 | -22.1  -7.8  275  25 13   6.9   3.8
 27000 -20.1  -4.2  270  24 12   6.7   3.7 | -20.1  -4.2  280  22 12   6.9   3.8
 26000 -18.1  -0.6  275  21 11   6.7   3.7 | -18.0  -0.4  280  20 10   6.9   3.8
 25000 -16.1   3.0  280  18  9   6.7   3.7 | -16.0   3.2  285  17  9   6.6   3.6
 24000 -14.1   6.6  280  18  9   6.7   3.7 | -14.1   6.6  290  15  8   6.4   3.5
 23000 -11.7  10.9  280  17  9   6.7   3.7 | -11.7  10.9  300  14  7   6.4   3.5
 22000  -9.8  14.4  280  16  8   4.8   2.6 |  -9.9  14.2  305  13  7   5.5   3.0
 21000  -8.4  16.9  290  13  7   5.0   2.8 |  -8.2  17.2  320  12  6   5.6   3.1
 20000  -6.9  19.6  300  10  5   5.1   2.8 |  -6.6  20.1  335  13  6   5.7   3.1
 19500  -6.2  20.8  310   9  5   4.9   2.7 |  -5.8  21.6  340  13  7   4.9   2.7
 19000  -5.5  22.1  325   9  5   4.9   2.7 |  -5.1  22.8  350  13  7   4.5   2.5
 18500  -4.8  23.4  335  10  5   4.8   2.6 |  -4.5  23.9  360  14  7   4.4   2.4
 18000  -4.0  24.8  345  11  5   6.6   3.6 |  -3.7  25.3  005  14  7   6.8   3.7
 17500  -3.1  26.4  350  12  6   6.5   3.6 |  -2.8  27.0  015  14  7   6.7   3.7
 17000  -2.2  28.0  355  13  7   7.1   3.9 |  -1.9  28.6  025  14  7   6.5   3.5
 16500  -1.2  29.8  360  13  7   7.5   4.1 |  -1.1  30.0  035  14  7   6.3   3.5
 16000  -0.1  31.8  010  13  7   7.8   4.3 |  -0.3  31.5  050  13  7   6.4   3.5
 15500   1.0  33.8  015  12  6   8.5   4.7 |   0.6  33.1  060  12  6   6.5   3.6
 15000   2.1  35.8  020  11  6   8.7   4.8 |   1.5  34.7  080  11  6   6.4   3.5
 14500   3.2  37.8  030  10  5   7.3   4.0 |   2.5  36.5  095  10  5   7.9   4.3
 14000   4.2  39.6  040   9  5   7.5   4.1 |   3.6  38.5  115  10  5   7.9   4.3
 13500   5.2  41.4  055   8  4   6.9   3.8 |   4.7  40.5  130  10  5   7.7   4.2
 13000   6.1  43.0  070   6  3   6.8   3.7 |   5.8  42.4  135  10  5   7.6   4.2
 12500   7.0  44.6  095   6  3   6.5   3.6 |   6.9  44.4  145   9  5   7.3   4.0
 12000   8.1  46.6  110   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   8.0  46.4  145   9  5   8.9   4.9
 11750   8.7  47.7  120   6  3   8.1   4.5 |   8.7  47.7  145   9  5   8.5   4.7
 11500   9.2  48.6  125   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   9.3  48.7  150   9  5   9.2   5.0
 11250   9.9  49.8  130   6  3   8.6   4.7 |  10.0  50.0  150   9  5   9.8   5.4
 11000  10.5  50.9  135   6  3   9.6   5.2 |  10.7  51.3  150   9  4   9.7   5.3
 10750  11.2  52.2  135   6  3  10.3   5.6 |  11.4  52.5  150   9  4   9.7   5.3
 10500  12.0  53.6  140   7  3  10.2   5.6 |  12.1  53.8  150   9  4  10.1   5.5
 10250  12.7  54.9  140   7  3  10.4   5.7 |  12.9  55.2  150   9  4  10.6   5.8
 10000  13.5  56.3  140   7  3  10.2   5.6 |  13.6  56.5  150   9  4  10.3   5.7
  9750  14.2  57.6  140   7  3   8.8   4.8 |  15.0  59.0  150   8  4   9.6   5.2
  9500  15.6  60.1  140   7  4  10.6   5.8 |  15.8  60.4  150   8  4  10.6   5.8
  9250  16.4  61.5  145   7  4  10.4   5.7 |  16.6  61.9  155   8  4  10.7   5.9
  9000  17.1  62.8  145   7  4   9.7   5.3 |  17.3  63.1  155   8  4   9.3   5.1
  8750  17.8  64.0  145   7  4   9.8   5.4 |  18.0  64.4  155   8  4   9.0   4.9
  8500  18.6  65.5  145   7  4  10.8   5.9 |  18.7  65.7  155   8  4  10.4   5.7
  8250  19.4  66.9  145   7  4  10.4   5.7 |  19.5  67.1  155   8  4   9.8   5.4
  8000  20.2  68.4  145   7  4  10.9   6.0 |  20.2  68.4  155   8  4  10.7   5.9
  7750  21.1  70.0  145   7  4  16.1   8.9 |  21.1  70.0  155   8  4  12.6   6.9
  7500  22.6  72.7  145   7  4  23.7  13.0 |  22.0  71.6  155   7  4  13.6   7.5
  7250  24.0  75.2  145   7  4  10.7   5.9 |  22.9  73.2  155   7  3  12.6   6.9
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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