Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 301955
SWODY1
SPC AC 301953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE 20Z
OUTLOOK.  AS EXPECTED...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING AND
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS WEAKENING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SUCH
THAT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF WACO TX WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG A NNW-SSE
ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO NEAR AUSTIN TX.

...MO...
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE HAS REMOVED PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO FROM
THE GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING ONGOING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
CENTRAL MO TO NRN AR HAS EXITED LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MO.

...ERN FL PANHANDLE...
THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT/ THAT
AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE WAS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE SRN GA/FL BORDER.  SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  FOR THESE REASONS...THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
HAS BEEN TRIMMED EASTWARD.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.




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