Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 030100
SWODY1
SPC AC 030058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME ERN PA AND NJ NWD
THROUGH ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A FEW
ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO NJ AND EXTREME ERN PA...
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN
ONTARIO TO PA ACCOMPANIED BY 30-40 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL WSWLY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...GIVEN
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...RESIDUAL STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.  THIS THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 02-03Z ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS OUTLOOK HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK EWD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS.

...TENNESSEE TO WRN NC/CENTRAL VA...
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED SOUTH
THROUGH EAST OF THE ONGOING STORMS MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
VA...WRN NC AND TENNESSEE WILL SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

...KS/NRN OK...
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...MAY ENHANCE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS KS AND NRN OK FROM MID-LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS NRN OK AND KS AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AT 40-45 BY LATE
EVENING FROM WRN TX/WRN OK INTO KS.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA...
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
/LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB / AS ASCENT INCREASES.  HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUGGESTING LOW SEVERE
HAIL PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

..PETERS.. 09/03/2014



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