Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SWODY1
SPC AC 231240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS/OK/TX TODAY.  DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S.  RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  AS STATED
BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN A BROAD REGION
FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX INDICATE RATHER FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
TX.  SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX AFFECTING THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

...EASTERN CO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE DCVZ AND LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
DEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CO...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/23/2015




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