Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 030539
SWODY1
SPC AC 030538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OK INTO SC AND NC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WIND AND
HAIL OVER THE RED RIVER AND ARKLATEX AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY AND
SECONDARY/WEAKER AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE SETTLING INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SAT MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN S OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

TO THE W...A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH ONLY WEAK LEE TROUGHING SUPPORTING ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS.

...GA INTO SC...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF TN AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A RIBBON OF
STRONG WLY FLOW WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH 50
KT AT 700 MB NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS. A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS BY ABOUT 18Z AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES AND SPREADS RAPIDLY EWD DURING
THE DAY. WITH SUCH STRONG WLY FLOW...BOWING STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF
THE WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND A WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...RED RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX INTO AR WITH
PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. THIS LEADING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REJUVENATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM NERN TX ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO NRN MS AND AL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...MORE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
SERN OK INTO AR WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH AN ENHANCED HAIL RISK AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED
STORMS AIDED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WEAK LEE
TROUGH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS...ALTHOUGH LONG
HODOGRAPHS WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW SMALL STORMS WITH
HAIL...COVERAGE MAY NOT REACH SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS AND WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE.

..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/03/2015



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