Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 301617
SWODY1
SPC AC 301615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC.  COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AND THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE INFLUX WHICH HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARIZONA DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR/GLEASON.. 01/30/2015



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