Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 020830
SWODY3
SPC AC 020828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD DURING DAY
3...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 05/00Z...AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...PARTS OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INITIAL STORMS TENDING TO BE MAINLY
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUPPORTING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TENDING TO VEER/WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015



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