Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 300000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300000
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

VALID 300000Z - 300100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE DMGG
WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND SLIGHTLY E OF WW 509 ACROSS SWRN KS...BUT A
NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER 02-03Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
PERSISTING ACROSS NERN NM...APPROACHING THE NWRN TX AND WRN OK
PANHANDLES...POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY SVR
HAIL. STORMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW IN E-CNTRL NM HAVE
EXHIBITED SLOW WEAKENING TRENDS OVER THE PAST HR.

FARTHER N/W...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT FROM SERN CO SWWD INTO NERN NM...AS A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK IS
EJECTING NEWD FROM N-CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO
A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /SEE 00Z AMA
SOUNDING/...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS...WITH BUOYANCY
FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER OWING TO NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING JET STREAK
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED N OF THE MCD AREA INTO NERN CO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF A CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT TO WITHIN OR JUST E OF
WW 509...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO FAR SWRN KS THIS EVENING. A NEW WW
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS.. 09/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38170140 37330146 36460212 34490344 33950443 34120521
            34870546 36070493 37350400 38410356 38580321 38600209
            38170140




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