Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 170930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Winter travel impacts will continue to be the primary concern for
northern New Mexico, especially in the higher terrain, through the
late evening hours. In fact, an additional 3 to 8 inches of fresh
snow will accumulate in the northern mountains, Sandia and Manzano
Mountains and Mt. Taylor. Locally higher amounts in excess of one
foot will favor the mountain peaks and ski resorts. Meanwhile, the
Albuquerque Metro area can expect gusty canyon winds, supporting a
risk for hazardous crosswinds on north-south oriented roadways. An
upper low that has been stuck in Arizona the last several days is
expected to migrate eastward across New Mexico from Tuesday through
Wednesday, keeping rain and mountain snow showers in the forecast.
Snow levels will be higher, so any travel impacts will be relegated
to mountain passes primarily above 8,000 feet. Warmer weather will
return for the work late week period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The cutoff upper level low pressure system over AZ is forecast to
meander closer to the NM/AZ  border today, then retrograde
southwestward toward the CA/AZ border late tonight and Monday.
Favorable dynamics in the divergent flow aloft over the northeast
quadrant of the system, and enhanced lift from a moist backdoor
front feeding into the system from the east, will result in
widespread rain and snow over the forecast area today with a snow
accumulation level near 6000 feet across east central areas as well
as the continental divide region of northwest NM.  The snow level
will be higher over downsloping regions like the central valley
(Albuquerque and Santa Fe), northwest plateau (Farmington), and west
central plateau (Gallup).  There will be some thunderstorms in the
mix as well today. Hefty additional snow amounts are forecast
generally in the 3-10 inch range where it is cold enough to snow,
except up to 15 inches in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and up
to 18 inches in the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Mount
Taylor. Rain amounts will be hefty for the desert as well, with many
lower elevation locations accumulating between 0.10-1.00". It will
be quite cool today with highs around 10-25 degrees below 1991-2020
averages. In addition, a gusty east wind will blow across central
areas today and this evening with gusts up to 45 mph below canyons
opening into Albuquerque, and up to 35 mph in Santa Fe and Carrizozo.

Improving conditions are forecast over the northeast half of the
forecast area tonight and Monday as the upper low retrogrades
southwestward, but the southwest half of the forecast area will
remain in a dynamically favored location for the continuation of
numerous rain and higher elevation snow showers, and some
thunderstorms.  A few to 5 additional inches of snow will be
possible over the southwest mountains.  High temperatures will
probably warm a few to around 10 degrees at least over the northeast
half of the forecast area Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

For Monday night, the stubborn upr low will continue to wobble in
southwest Arizona. A ribbon of higher moisture and vertical ascent
will be oriented along a line from north central AZ to southwest NM
with the highest PoPs focused over the Upper Gila. Snow levels will
range from 7500-8000 feet, thus minor winter travel impacts will be
favored along the Continental Divide.

The Rex block finally loses its tight grip and will squirt the upr
low eastward towards northern NM late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing
differences are noted with all the deterministic guidance, but it`s
not expected to make a big difference in the potential impacts and
key messaging. The ECMWF is the quickest with the eastward movement
while the NAM provides the slowest progression. Associated mid/upper
moisture will migrate with the upr low, focusing the best chances of
precipitation in western and central NM on Tue, then potentially in
all areas on Wed before the system departs the plains either late in
the afternoon or Wed evening. During the storm`s passage, the higher
PoP values should be diurnally driven with daytime heating in combo
with the cold core aloft, igniting instability showers. With 700hPa
temps ranging from -1C to -4C, snow levels should stretch from 7500-
8500 ft. Accumulations of snow should be limited given the showery
nature of activity, but some locales could pick up 2-5 inches. With
slightly negative LIs, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Upper level ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin
on Thu, keeping NM in dry northwest flow. The deterministic ECMWF is
furthest east with the ridge axis, but this appears to be an outlier
when compared the latest 500hPa height cluster analysis. This ridge
shifts eastward for Fri/Fri night with the axis near or just west of
the NM/AZ border. Both the deterministic GFS and Canadian slide a
backdoor cold front into eastern CO and northeast NM. Boundary layer
upslope coupled with an upr level disturbance embedded in northwest
flow aloft could provide a risk for precip. That said, the GFS QPF
postage stamps have very few members in support of this risk. This
likely explains why the NBM has relatively low PoPs. For now, there
is no significant reason to deviate, but it is something to monitor
with future model runs.

For Saturday, the multi-model ensemble mean depicts zonal flow over
NM, but there are two unique clusters that suggest either 1) average
500hPa height anomalies (primarily ECMWF members) or 2) well above
normal anomalies (mostly GFS members). Regardless, winds will be on
the increase across the state. By Sunday, further spread is observed
in the guidance with NBM MaxT box-and-whisker plots growing in size.
The cluster analysis provides a bimodal solution with a deep trough
over the Intermountain West and well below normal heights, with the
other favored scenario suggesting a closed low being cutoff from the
upper level flow over the eastern Pacific with near to above normal
heights over the Land of Enchantment. Unfortunately, this lends to a
rather low confidence forecast. DPorter

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A cutoff upper level low pressure system spinning counter
clockwise over AZ will continue to spread scattered to numerous
rain and snow showers northward over the central third of the
forecast area with MVFR and IFR conditions for the remainder of
the night. Meanwhile, easterly upslope flow across eastern areas
will continue to result in IFR conditions in rain and snow, as
well as dense fog along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain. Models, as well as satellite and radar imagery, depict
more isolated activity along the western and eastern borders of
the forecast area until Sunday, when rain and snow showers will
become more widespread over western, east central and southeast
areas, while continuing with slightly less coverage over the
central third of the forecast area. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be in the mix along and west of the central mountain chain
on Sunday. Models depict the upper low retrograding southwestward
over AZ on Sunday night, allowing drier air over NM from the north
with improving conditions over the northeast half of the forecast
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The cool and wet weather pattern will continue through Wednesday,
though the coverage and amounts of precipitation will decrease with
each day until then. By Thursday, a cutoff upper level low pressure
system will finally exit the region, and a low amplitude ridge of
high pressure will cross during the latter half of the week with
warming temperatures. After high temperatures around 10-25 degrees
below 1991-2020 averages today, readings will trend gradually
warmer though Saturday when highs will peak a few to around 8
degrees above the averages. Another storm system digging into the
western US should strengthen the flow aloft over NM on Saturday
causing southwest surface winds to become breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  31  57  32 /  70  20   5  10
Dulce...........................  47  20  53  22 /  70  20  10  10
Cuba............................  40  23  47  25 /  80  30  10  20
Gallup..........................  45  23  51  25 /  80  50  30  30
El Morro........................  40  27  43  29 /  90  70  50  30
Grants..........................  40  25  45  27 /  90  70  30  20
Quemado.........................  43  27  46  31 /  70  30  70  30
Magdalena.......................  45  32  46  34 /  80  70  70  40
Datil...........................  42  29  43  31 /  70  50  60  40
Reserve.........................  50  25  52  29 /  40  30  80  50
Glenwood........................  54  37  56  40 /  30  40  80  50
Chama...........................  42  18  48  21 /  80  20   5  10
Los Alamos......................  40  28  47  31 /  90  20  10  10
Pecos...........................  40  25  47  27 /  90  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  39  28  45  32 /  70  10   0   5
Red River.......................  35  16  43  20 /  90  20   5  10
Angel Fire......................  34  12  41  15 /  80  20  10  10
Taos............................  44  21  51  24 /  80  10   0   5
Mora............................  36  20  44  23 /  90  40   5  10
Espanola........................  47  27  56  29 /  80  20   5  10
Santa Fe........................  44  28  49  31 /  90  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  45  28  52  31 /  90  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  36  53  36 /  90  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  36  55  35 /  80  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  35  57  34 /  80  50  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  35  55  35 /  90  40  20  20
Belen...........................  51  33  57  32 /  80  70  40  20
Bernalillo......................  47  35  56  35 /  90  40  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  50  34  56  32 /  80  60  30  20
Corrales........................  49  35  56  34 /  80  40  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  50  35  56  33 /  80  60  40  20
Placitas........................  42  33  51  35 /  90  40  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  47  34  54  35 /  80  40  20  20
Socorro.........................  55  39  57  38 /  80  60  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  30  44  32 /  90  40  30  20
Tijeras.........................  38  30  47  32 /  90  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  37  28  47  28 /  90  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  40  27  49  25 /  90  30  20  20
Clines Corners..................  34  25  43  27 / 100  30  20  20
Mountainair.....................  39  30  46  29 / 100  50  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  42  30  48  29 /  90  40  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  51  37  52  35 /  80  60  60  30
Ruidoso.........................  42  32  42  31 /  80  70  70  40
Capulin.........................  40  22  49  26 /  30   5   0   5
Raton...........................  43  21  52  23 /  50  10   0   5
Springer........................  43  22  52  23 /  60  20   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  23  46  26 /  90  20   5  10
Clayton.........................  52  29  57  36 /  20   5   0   0
Roy.............................  45  26  53  30 /  60  20   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  31  59  33 /  70  20   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  43  31  54  30 /  90  30  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  49  30  59  34 /  60  20   5   5
Clovis..........................  48  35  59  36 /  70  40  10  10
Portales........................  50  33  61  34 /  70  40  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  47  34  58  32 /  90  40  20  10
Roswell.........................  52  43  58  40 /  80  70  40  10
Picacho.........................  46  35  49  33 /  70  70  40  20
Elk.............................  50  32  45  32 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ206-210-
211-213>215-221-223-227-229.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ202-
204-212-228.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ226-239.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...44


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