Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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532 FXUS65 KABQ 061748 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1148 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 A cold front swept into New Mexico last night, and temperatures will be a few to several degrees cooler today. Otherwise it will be windy and dry again, not only today, but also into Tuesday and Wednesday. High fire danger will persist through this time with the potential for rapid fire spread. Temperatures will try to rebound some on Tuesday, but will quickly fall a few degrees again on Wednesday as another cold front passes through. As the work week comes to a close Thursday and Friday, moisture will start to seep back into parts of New Mexico from the east, and this could lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning to the forecast, mainly in north central to northeastern areas of New Mexico. Fortunately, less wind is forecast, hopefully reducing the fire danger. The moisture could hang around into the weekend when perhaps even more showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily over the same north central to northeastern areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Very strong west wind gusts from 55-65 mph will continue through much of the morning over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and around Clines Corners as the polar jetstream continues to move over the forecast area. The strong winds will mix down to lower elevations from mid morning through early evening with wind gusts from 40-55 mph along and east of the central chain, and from 35-50 mph farther west. Winds will weaken and eventually decouple at lower elevations tonight, except along the east slopes of the central mountain chain where they will remain gusty. The polar jetstream will shift a little to the north on Tuesday over the CO/NM border enabling another day of strong winds with peak gusts from 40-60 mph possible along and north of I-40, and from 35-45 mph further south. Humidities will bottom out in the single digits in most lower elevations locations today, then over more of the forecast area on Tuesday, resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions both days. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 The upper low over eastern MT will drop into the plains farther to the southeast Tuesday night, and a shortwave trough will close in on the Four Corners by dawn Wednesday. This will keep the flow aloft quite strong over NM (35 to 45 kt at 700 mb), having backed just slightly from a due westerly direction. The shortwave will push toward the southern high plains during the day Wednesday, and the flow aloft will actually reduce as it veers maybe 10 to 30 degrees. This will initiate some modest cold air advection as the thermal trough aloft crosses. It will still be breezy to windy over much of the CWA, but a notable reduction in speeds is forecast for many zones Wednesday afternoon. It still looks as though a welcome pattern shift will be in order for the remainder of the week, as a vort lobe from the earlier MT low will have separated and cut-off just east of the Great Basin. The relatively weak gradient with this feature will reduce wind speeds aloft, and meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be sliding southward down the Great Plains and nudging into eastern NM by late Thursday. While moisture advection will be quite subdued with this boundary, it will still be a notable improvement to humidity which could hopefully suppress fire danger somewhat. Forecast models are still enthused about showers and storms developing Thursday through the weekend, generally being concentrated over north central to northeastern NM. With the dewpoints struggling to even reach the upper 30s Thursday and Friday, would think any precipitation from shower and storm activity would face rapid evaporation beneath cloud bases, limiting rain totals. A second frontal push by this weekend could boost measurable rain chances more over eastern (and mainly northeastern zones) with higher boundary layer dewpoints arriving. Temperatures would tend to hover about 5 to 12 degrees below normal Thursday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest wind gusts to 45 kts will be continue through around sunset along and east of the central mtn chain. It won`t be as windy in central and western areas, but gusts to 35 kts will still be common throughout the afternoon. Patchy blowing dust may reduce visibility at times, with the highest confidence at terminals in eastern NM. Winds diminish briefly overnight, creating some LLWS along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns from around 06Z through 15Z tomorrow morning. Winds begin to strengthen and spread to the lower elevations late tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 ...FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A persistent fire growing pattern that developed Sunday will continue through Wednesday as a broad longwave trough persists over the western US keeping the flow aloft dry and strong. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast areawide today and Tuesday as wind gusts vary around 40-60 mph both days. The strongest winds will favor the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and eastern plains today, then along the CO border and southeastward to east central areas on Tuesday. The most extreme fire weather conditions today are forecast over eastern areas where some locations will feel over 5 hours of single digit humidities. On Tuesday, extreme fire weather conditions will become more widespread as most lower elevation locations east of the continental divide experience 5-10 hours of single digit humidities. On Wednesday, winds are forecast to weaken some with the strongest gusts favoring the central mountain chain eastward where widespread critical fire weather conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 34 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 30 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 30 71 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 58 32 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 30 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 33 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 67 40 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 31 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 76 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 51 25 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 38 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 58 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 35 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 27 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 50 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 58 27 68 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 57 35 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 36 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 35 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 42 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 40 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 38 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 41 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 38 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 42 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 39 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 80 44 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 35 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 32 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 62 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 38 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 38 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 75 45 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 67 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 33 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 64 35 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 35 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 62 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 72 39 79 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 67 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 75 41 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 39 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 41 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 45 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 43 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 77 41 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 87 49 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 44 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 77 42 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106- 109-120>126. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212>216-221>223- 227>237. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-122>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16