Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
000
FXUS65 KABQ 162001
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Lower elevation rain and mountain snow shower activity ramps up
tonight into tomorrow as the slow moving storm over Arizona meanders
east towards the state combined with a reinforcing backdoor front
coming in from the northeast. 1 to 2 feet of additional snow is
expected across the northern mountains where Winter Storm Warnings
are in effect. The backdoor front will bring another round of
moderate east canyon winds to the Albuquerque Metro tonight through
Sunday night. Rain and high mountain snow showers become more
focused across west central and south central areas Monday as the
system meanders back west. Snow levels will be around 7500 to 8000
feet. Shower coverage decreases and favors the afternoon and evening
hours midweek as the system finally picks up speed and moves east
across the state. Drier weather finally returns Thursday as high
pressure moves overhead. Temperatures will also warm up slightly
above seasonal normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The relative break in winter precipitation has arrived this
afternoon over northern and central NM. However, a bank of low
clouds remains entrenched along and east of the central mountain
chain where a mix of isolated fog and mist with some light
precipitation exists. More sunshine is present along and west of the
Rio Grande Valley but is still hard to come by for most areas. The
main 554dm H5 low remains over western AZ this hour spinning up a
slug of mid to upper level moisture northward over NM. This upper
low will track eastward inching closer to the NM border by mid-day
Sunday before retrograding back west late Sunday into Monday.
Meanwhile, a reinforcing easterly surge will bring another round of
easterly upslope flow and east canyon winds through the gaps of the
central mountain chain tonight into Sunday morning. The combination
of surface upslope flow underlying diffluent flow aloft east of the
center of the upper low over AZ will allow for a renewed round of
valley rain and mountain snow showers to break out tonight and last
through most of Sunday. This will focus mostly over the central
swath of the forecast area. Snow levels fall to ~6500 feet, so
winter impacts will be limited to those higher terrain areas of
central and northern NM. With anomalously high moisture to work with
forecast soundings are in fairly strong agreement temperature
profiles will support wetter snow and lower snow ratios for the most
part. As such, forecast snow amounts tonight through Sunday night
show another around of 1 to 2 feet atop the peaks of the northern
mountains and Mt. Taylor, 6 to 10 inches in the 6500 to 8500 foot
range, and 3 to 6 inches in the foothills surrounding these mountain
ranges. With these amounts, and specifically 2 to 7 inches in the
East Mountain Communities and along the Tijeras Canyon, will issue a
new Winter Storm Warning for the Sandia/Manzano Mountains. New
Winter Weather Advisories will be issued for the Central and
Northeast Highlands (Las Vegas) and the West-Central Mountains.
As the low retrogrades back west over AZ, the area of showers looks
to become more west to east oriented trying to stretch northwestward
over the northwest highlands and toward Farmington. Could see an
additional winter weather advisory be issued for this area between
the Jemez Mountains and Chama to Dulce with subsequent forecast
packages. This will also keep good precipitation chances going over
the central portion of the forecast area all day Sunday to include
the ABQ Metro and Santa Fe. Shower coverage finally begins to
dwindle Sunday night as the low gets further west over AZ and the
easterly push at the surface loses its punch.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Our stubborn cutoff upper low retrogrades west on Monday due to
being directed by a blocking upper level high over the Pacific NW.
Rain and mountain snow shower activity will favor west central,
southwest and south central areas due to low level forcing from the
backdoor front in the area and upper level forcing from WAA and CVA
ahead of the low centered somewhere near Yuma, AZ. With 700 mb
temperatures around -1 to -3 deg C, snow levels will be pretty high
at around 7,500 to 8,000 feet. Some isolated thunder and lightning
is possible across the southwest mountains during the afternoon and
evening hours due to associated instability from negative LIs.
Elsewhere, temperatures will be milder compared to recent days
across northeast NM due to clearer skies in that part of the state.
The upper low starts to move back towards the AZ/NM border Tuesday
as the upper ridge over the Pacific NW begins breaking down due to
the kicker upper level trough approaching that part of the country.
Daytime heating and instability from the slightly colder core aloft
will result in the development of rain and high mountain snow
showers along and west of the central mountain chain during the
afternoon and evening hours. Some showers could once again have
isolated thunder and lightning due to slightly negative LI`s.
Coverage decreases after sunset. The upper low opens up into a
trough and moves at a quicker pace across the state Wednesday. Once
again, daytime instability will result in the development of
isolated to scattered rain and mountain peak snow showers for the
entire area. Some breezy west winds are expected across the central
highlands due to the development of a lee low over northeast NM.
Drier weather, clear skies, and temperatures more typical of mid
March finally return Thursday as upper level riding moves in from
the west in the wake of the departing storm system. The ridge
flattens a bit on Friday as a disturbance moves through the central
Rockies but rebuilds next weekend ahead of deep storm system off the
coast of the Pacific NW. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
above average come Friday and next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A very challenging aviation forecast is present with widespread
IFR/LIFR and MVFR conditions across the forecast area. The eastern
plains continue to see areawide ovc cigs with fog and mist still
present in isolated parts of the highlands adjacent to the central
mountain chain, including KLVS. Localized scattered shower
activity is also moving northward through central NM currently
from KBRG and KABQ to the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Localized MVFR to IFR conditions are following this batch of
shower activity. A mix of clearing conditions and stubborn low
clouds is present along and west of the Continental Divide.
Hit-and-miss shower activity with valley rain and mountain snow
will continue through the central swatch of the forecast area this
afternoon with coverage increasing tonight past 03Z. This will
coincide with an easterly push along the east slopes and through
the gaps of the central mountain chain. Another east wind is
forecast KABQ tonight into Sunday morning as a result, but not
nearly as strong as the high wind event observed Friday. Continued
IFR cigs with more widespread mist and fog are also likely across
the eastern plains and highlands tonight into Sunday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
No critical fire weather conditions are forecast. A persistent
winter mix will continue through Wednesday. A round of snow will
favor areas above 6,500 feet tonight through Sunday night before a
break arrives Monday. The final round of winter precipitation pushes
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper low responsible for
this prolonged winter weather stretch finally tracks east over NM
and exits over TX Wednesday night. Drier and warmer conditions
return areawide to end the work week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 34 48 32 56 / 70 60 20 10
Dulce........................... 28 48 21 54 / 80 50 30 10
Cuba............................ 30 42 24 46 / 80 70 40 20
Gallup.......................... 26 45 27 50 / 50 80 50 40
El Morro........................ 25 41 28 43 / 40 80 60 50
Grants.......................... 26 41 27 45 / 50 80 50 30
Quemado......................... 25 43 27 46 / 20 70 50 60
Magdalena....................... 33 45 32 46 / 70 80 60 70
Datil........................... 26 42 29 43 / 40 70 60 60
Reserve......................... 25 49 28 54 / 20 50 50 60
Glenwood........................ 34 54 36 59 / 20 40 40 70
Chama........................... 25 42 19 50 / 90 60 30 10
Los Alamos...................... 31 42 28 46 / 80 80 40 10
Pecos........................... 30 40 25 46 / 70 90 50 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 29 40 24 45 / 60 70 40 0
Red River....................... 21 35 15 44 / 60 80 50 5
Angel Fire...................... 20 35 14 41 / 70 80 50 10
Taos............................ 27 46 22 51 / 60 70 40 0
Mora............................ 27 37 21 46 / 80 80 40 10
Espanola........................ 33 51 29 55 / 80 80 30 10
Santa Fe........................ 32 44 28 48 / 80 80 50 20
Santa Fe Airport................ 33 46 29 50 / 80 80 40 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 45 34 51 / 90 80 50 30
Albuquerque Heights............. 38 47 35 53 / 70 70 50 30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 49 36 55 / 70 70 40 30
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 37 47 35 53 / 80 70 40 30
Belen........................... 38 51 35 55 / 90 80 60 40
Bernalillo...................... 37 47 35 54 / 80 70 40 20
Bosque Farms.................... 38 50 35 55 / 70 70 50 40
Corrales........................ 37 48 35 55 / 80 70 40 20
Los Lunas....................... 38 50 35 55 / 80 70 50 40
Placitas........................ 35 43 33 49 / 90 80 50 30
Rio Rancho...................... 37 47 34 53 / 80 80 40 20
Socorro......................... 39 55 37 55 / 70 80 50 50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 38 29 44 / 80 80 60 30
Tijeras......................... 33 40 31 46 / 80 90 50 40
Edgewood........................ 32 40 29 46 / 80 90 50 30
Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 41 29 47 / 70 90 50 30
Clines Corners.................. 29 36 26 43 / 80 90 60 30
Mountainair..................... 33 39 30 46 / 70 80 70 40
Gran Quivira.................... 34 43 31 46 / 70 80 70 50
Carrizozo....................... 38 51 36 51 / 70 80 70 60
Ruidoso......................... 34 44 31 41 / 70 80 80 70
Capulin......................... 27 41 23 49 / 40 30 30 0
Raton........................... 29 45 23 51 / 50 50 30 0
Springer........................ 31 45 25 51 / 50 60 30 0
Las Vegas....................... 29 37 25 46 / 70 80 40 10
Clayton......................... 34 52 30 58 / 20 20 10 0
Roy............................. 33 46 28 52 / 50 70 40 5
Conchas......................... 39 50 33 57 / 50 80 40 10
Santa Rosa...................... 36 43 33 51 / 60 90 50 20
Tucumcari....................... 38 51 32 57 / 30 70 40 5
Clovis.......................... 39 49 35 58 / 20 80 50 10
Portales........................ 39 51 35 59 / 20 70 50 20
Fort Sumner..................... 39 47 36 56 / 60 90 60 30
Roswell......................... 45 54 42 54 / 60 80 70 50
Picacho......................... 39 47 36 47 / 70 80 70 50
Elk............................. 37 49 34 46 / 50 70 70 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Sunday night for NMZ206-223-229.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for NMZ210-
211-213>215-227.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Sunday night for NMZ221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24