Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182354 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The break in the winter weather today gives way to one
more round of relatively light winter weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
The main weather system responsible for this over AZ will finally
track over NM Tuesday night and Wednesday, exiting into TX Wednesday
evening. Any additional light snow accumulations will be relegated
to the higher terrain of the western and northern mountains.
Sunnier, warm and drier weather returns Thursday, continuing into
Friday. Although there is potential for cooler and light showers to
reach northeastern NM Friday. A more unsettled weather pattern
returns by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of the H5 low
partially responsible for our extended stretch of active weather
retrograding even farther west into SoCal. A 70-80 kt speed max
extending eastward from the H5 low and the associated left exit
region are focused over southeast AZ and southwest NM today. The
latest 19Z SPC mesoanalysis shows bulk shear increasing to near 30
kt with MUCAPE near 500 J/kg along the AZ/NM border. CAMs show
SHRA/TS coverage increasing over western NM thru sunset with deep-
layer southeast flow steering storms toward the northwest. This
first batch of isolated convection will taper off this evening
followed by a second batch overnight as another spoke of lift
spreads north into western NM. Snow levels will likely remain above
7,500` and the overall QPF is light so limited impacts are expected.
The rest of northern and eastern NM will remain quiet with min temps
trending several degrees warmer than last night, especially over
eastern NM.

The coverage of SHRA/TS will increase again Tuesday as the H5 low
begins drifting back to the east into central and eastern AZ thru
the afternoon. This will allow greater instability to spread into
northern and western NM. MLCAPE near 500 J/kg along with bulk shear
values near 45kt may support a few storms with hail and/or graupel
that briefly accumulates and impacts travel, especially along the
Cont Dvd Tuesday afternoon. Max temps will trend several degrees
warmer areawide despite increased coverage of SHRA/TS. The H5 low is
then expected to slide east along the I-40 corridor Tuesday night
with potential for valley rain showers and mt snow to expand over
northern and central NM. This wetter trend in recent model runs for
Tuesday night may lead to a couple inches of snow above 8,000` by
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Wednesday begins the long term period with the last
little gasp of our resident upper low crossing northern and central
NM. Areas along the Continental Divide, northern mountains and
valley areas will have one last chance at light precipitation
Wednesday morning. Snow levels will fall to around 7,000 to 7,500
feet during this time, so any minor impacts look to be limited to
the mountain areas. The center of the upper low tracks into the TX
Panhandle by the end of the day Wednesday with showers over the
northern mountains tapering off by this point.

A shortwave ridge passes over NM Thursday with sunnier and drier
conditions allowing high temperatures to warm 7F to 10F areawide.
Highs will top out in the 50s for the western and northern
mountains, 60s in the valleys and northeastern plains, and low 70s
for the east-central plains southward. Upper level flow aloft turns
zonal Friday as a backdoor front looks to enter northeastern NM. A
few light showers could develop over the northeastern plains Friday
afternoon. PoPs could increase further for Friday across the
northeastern quadrant of the forecast area if confidence continues
to build. Thereafter, the weather pattern begins to become unsettled
again. Southwest flow begins to increase ahead of a larger synoptic
scale troughing pattern entering the western CONUS. Lowering
pressure heights will bring cooler temperatures, and increased
moisture associated with the troughing pattern will bring a return
of valley rain and mountain snow to the western half of the state
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Upper low over swern AZ will allow isold to sct shwrs to persist
through the night, particularly in and around the Cont Dvd and
wwd. Activity will move nwrn through the TAF period, with lcl
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys possible due to rain and snow, along with
occasional gusty winds. Shwrs will be possible again tomorrow,
favoring wrn NM as the upper low starts to migrate ewd. This will
bring another potential round of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in and around
KGUP, particularly in the aftn.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

An upper low over southern CA today will drift east into AZ Tuesday
then NM Wednesday with more showers and storms, especially near the
high terrain and western NM. Snow levels will be higher than recent
days with very light snow accums possible above 8,000 feet thru
Wednesday. Drier and warmer conditions will return Thursday with
breezy northwest winds areawide. The next backdoor cold front will
move thru eastern NM Friday with increasing clouds and perhaps some
showers Friday night and Saturday. The rest of NM will remain dry
Friday and Saturday with slight afternoon breezes and even warmer
temps. Stronger southwest winds may return Sunday and Monday with
potential for at least marginal critical fire weather over eastern
NM (especially Sunday). The rest of NM will see cooler temps with
increasing clouds, more wind, and greater coverage of rain showers
and mt snow Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  32  59  34  59 /   0  20  10   5
Dulce...........................  21  56  26  51 /   5  30  20  30
Cuba............................  27  51  29  50 /   5  30  30  30
Gallup..........................  26  53  28  53 /  20  60  20  10
El Morro........................  29  49  29  47 /  20  60  20  20
Grants..........................  27  52  28  51 /  10  40  20  20
Quemado.........................  30  52  28  49 /  30  50  10  20
Magdalena.......................  33  53  31  52 /  30  20  20  10
Datil...........................  30  50  28  48 /  30  20  10  10
Reserve.........................  30  57  26  55 /  50  30  10  10
Glenwood........................  40  62  35  58 /  60  20   0  10
Chama...........................  19  51  22  45 /   5  30  20  30
Los Alamos......................  30  50  31  50 /   0  20  20  30
Pecos...........................  27  53  30  48 /   0  20  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  30  49  30  46 /   0  10  20  30
Red River.......................  19  47  22  40 /   5  20  20  50
Angel Fire......................  14  46  20  42 /   0  20  20  50
Taos............................  22  55  27  50 /   0  10  20  30
Mora............................  21  53  26  48 /   0  20  10  40
Espanola........................  28  60  32  56 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Fe........................  30  53  31  50 /   0  20  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  30  56  32  53 /   0  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  57  35  55 /   5  20  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  36  58  38  57 /  10  10  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  35  60  36  59 /  10  10  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  59  37  58 /   5  10  30  20
Belen...........................  33  60  35  60 /  20  20  30  10
Bernalillo......................  34  60  36  57 /   5  10  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  33  60  35  59 /  10  20  30  20
Corrales........................  34  60  37  58 /   5  10  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  33  60  35  60 /  20  20  30  20
Placitas........................  35  55  34  54 /   5  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  34  59  36  57 /   5  10  30  20
Socorro.........................  38  62  37  61 /  20  10  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  50  31  49 /   5  20  30  30
Tijeras.........................  30  53  32  52 /   5  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  27  54  29  52 /   5  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  25  56  28  54 /   0  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  27  52  30  51 /   0  10  10  20
Mountainair.....................  29  54  31  52 /  10  10  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  29  55  31  53 /  10  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  35  59  37  57 /  10  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  30  55  34  52 /  10  20  10  10
Capulin.........................  26  56  30  53 /   0  10   5  20
Raton...........................  22  58  28  54 /   0  10  10  20
Springer........................  22  60  28  57 /   0  10   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  26  55  29  52 /   0  10  10  20
Clayton.........................  35  64  37  63 /   0   5   5  30
Roy.............................  30  60  32  58 /   0  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  32  66  36  65 /   0   5  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  30  62  35  61 /   0  10  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  32  66  37  67 /   0   0  10  20
Clovis..........................  34  66  38  66 /   0   0  10  30
Portales........................  33  67  37  68 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  32  65  36  65 /   0   5  10  20
Roswell.........................  41  67  40  71 /   5   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  35  63  37  62 /   5  10   5   5
Elk.............................  32  63  35  58 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12


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