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000
FXUS65 KABQ 221707
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

More springlike weather is on track for this week as a warming
trend gets underway. A weak cold front will bring a brief cool
down to eastern NM Wednesday but temperatures rebound quickly
on Thursday. Strong winds return Thursday and continue at times
through next weekend. High temperatures will remain near averages
for late April through the week with cooler air moving in from the
west during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A few areas of fog have developed in the last few hours along the
east slopes of the central mountain chain. Dense fog is likely very
localized given that there isn`t much signal on satellite. The most
likely areas for development within the next few hours would along I-
25 between Las Vegas and Raton as well as in the Estancia basin so
some patchy fog was added into the forecast through sunrise. Low
stratus across the southeast plains will also dissipate quickly
after sunrise, allowing temps to climb as much as 25 degrees higher
than yesterday`s highs in this area. Modest height rises and drier
air from the west will also contribute to a few degrees of warming
across the central and western portions of the state. A weakly
unstable atmosphere will support the development of isolated high-
based convection across the high terrain of western and northern NM
this afternoon. Given the sub-25% surface RH values, wetting rains
will be far and few between. Evaporative cooling will create
localized gusty and erratic winds and LIs just below 0 indicate that
there could be a few lightning strikes. A light southwest breeze
prevails in most areas, but a few gusts upwards of 40 mph are
possible in the east-central plains.

Another backdoor front nudges into northeastern NM around mid-
morning Tuesday, but its progress will be slow until after sunset
given the westerly flow in place. If the front makes it to the
Sangre de Cristo mountains by the afternoon, a few showers are
possible. However, the most recent NAM has slowed down the frontal
progression, making any precip unlikely. Amplification of the ridge
will nudge temps up a few degrees Tuesday, with highs 10-15 degrees
above seasonal averages areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Ridge axis slides east of NM Tuesday night with southwest flow
aloft slowly developing over NM Wednesday. A relatively weak
backdoor front remains in the cards for eastern NM Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Isolated showers are possible behind the front as
it slides southward through the northeast quarter. This front
continues to make progress to the south and west Wednesday
morning, banking up against the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Gallinas and south-central mountains
during the late morning. Models indicative of at least areas of
upslope stratus developing over much of eastern NM during the day
Wednesday. Upper trough over CA is then forecast to move east
Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in increasing winds
areawide Thursday. Any precipitation associated with this system
is forecast to remain near the CO line Thursday afternoon and
evening. Stout zonal flow aloft remains on tap for Friday and
Saturday, ahead of an unseasonably deep upper level closed low
dropping southeastward through NV. 00Z Operational GFS has trended
farther south and wetter, and is very similar to the operational
ECMWF. Main frontal band of precipitation is forecast to move
into western NM Saturday morning with strong southwest winds and
critical fire weather concerns for the eastern half of the state.
Both models then close off and deepen the low as it crests the
Southern Rockies Saturday night. Models agree that some wrap
around precipitation is possible over north central and northeast
NM Saturday night and possibly into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR will continue through the TAF period with mid and high level
clouds moving across the region. Southwesterly to westerly winds
prevail. Variable winds and gusty could develop with any isolated
storms that develop through the afternoon. Mention of storms not
included with issuance due to low confidence of impact at terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Isolated dry showers and storms across the high terrain of western
and northern NM this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds through sunset. Drier air and the absence of low
stratus will allow temps to warm-up significantly from yesterday`s
highs, particularly across the east where temps may warm as much as
25 degrees. A light breeze will prevail today and tomorrow, but a
few southwesterly gusts upwards of 40 mph are possible this
afternoon in the eastern plains. A backdoor front enters from the
northeast tomorrow and a few strong easterly gusts are also possible
across the northeast with its passage.

Winds will trend stronger Wednesday into Thursday as a Pacific
trough ejects inland into the desert southwest. Dry, windy, and
unstable conditions areawide will create widespread critical fire
weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will likely
stick around late week into the weekend, favoring continued critical
fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain with
elevated conditions in the central and western portions of the
state. The late week/weekend storm could be wetter, with
precipitation chances favoring the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  81  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  77  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  77  41  75 /  10   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  78  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  43  74  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40  79  39  78 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  79  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  76  44  72 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  80  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37  71  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  51  74  47  74 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  45  75  43  73 /   5   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  70  46  69 /   5  10   5   0
Red River.......................  36  67  34  66 /   5  20   5   0
Angel Fire......................  32  68  29  66 /   0  10   5   0
Taos............................  38  76  38  74 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  42  74  39  73 /   5   5   5   0
Espanola........................  43  82  44  81 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  48  76  46  75 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  80  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  82  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  83  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  86  49  84 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  84  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  87  48  84 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  52  85  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  48  86  47  84 /  10   0   0   0
Corrales........................  52  85  50  83 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  86  49  84 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  81  51  77 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  51  84  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  89  51  86 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  75  47  72 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  78  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  48  78  42  76 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  80  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  44  75  41  73 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  78  44  76 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  77  44  76 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  81  52  81 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  69  38  71 /   0   5   5   0
Raton...........................  39  75  39  76 /   0   5   5   0
Springer........................  40  79  40  76 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  73  42  71 /   0   0   5   0
Roy.............................  46  78  43  73 /   5   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  48  86  48  79 /   5   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  46  83  46  77 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  49  84  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  49  87  49  79 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  48  89  47  79 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  87  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  93  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  50  86  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  84  48  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...99