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000
FXUS63 KABR 121101
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
331 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near 80 degrees on Saturday and only a few degrees
lower Sunday will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

- Moisture potential for the start of next week, primarily in the
form of rain (just a 20-30% for thunder). The probability of seeing
an inch of moisture during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe is
about 50%.

- Below average highs/lows on the order of about 10 to 20 degrees
for the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The surface weather map this morning shows a ridge of high pressure
stretching from central Canada through western ND central SD and
Dakota through eastern TX. This ridge will push across to the ND/SD
border by 21Z. Warm and dry conditions will remain. The strongest
winds will be over central South Dakota, increasing out of the south
with gusts of 20 to near 30kts, in advance of the next area of low
pressure across MT. Despite recent light rain, fire weather concerns
will continue until greenup. Relative humidity values will be in the
20 percent range, except near 35 percent near the South Dakota and
Minnesota border this afternoon. Grassland Fire Danger Index values
will reach the High category (3 out of a scale of 1/low-5/extreme).

Warmer air will surge north Saturday, with 850mb temperatures rising
to 16-21C (highest over south central SD) and the 500mb ridge
flattening out through the day. The nearing low from the west will
be over the western Dakotas by 15Z, with shifting winds. Expect
highs near 80 degrees, or around 25 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Relative humidity values will be in the 15 to 30
percent range Saturday afternoon, with the strongest winds over the
Prairie Coteau of eastern South Dakota gusting 20 to 30 mph through
early afternoon before that nearly low results in diminishing winds.
The surface low will be over eastern SD by 00Z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Through the course of the long term it looks like we will see a
decent 40 degree temperature swing along with the potential for
respectable amounts of moisture.

Will start with almost zonal northwest flow aloft. With a slightly
more westerly trajectory, we will pull mild mid level air in from
the west. 850mb temperatures are a standard deviation above climo
when we open the period, however a backdoor front will deflect the
warmest air south. The rebound for Monday will push temperatures
upwards of 20 degrees above normal. Thats it however, as an upper
low moves into the 4-Corners region, into the Central Plains and
then lifts northeast towards the Western Lakes region. Moisture
associated with this feature will cover most of the CWA, with the
NBM giving us about a 50 percent chance for an inch accumulation
over the 48-72 hour period. Additionally, for the most part NBM
probabilities for precipitation type indicate this to be mainly
rain, with some low probabilities for thunder given our location on
the northwest side of the surface low trajectory. Thereafter, 850mb
temperatures crater to around a standard deviation below climo with
clouds and wrap around showers to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Winds will shift to
the southeast by the afternoon across central SD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise