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000
FXAK69 PAFG 162336
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week for the West Coast as
troughing remains draped across the Chukchi Sea and south across
the Bering. Heavy snow possible in the favored upslope areas.
Drier and warmer conditions expected across the Interior as
ridging aloft builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 484 dam (decameter) low sits near the North
Pole. Broad upper level troughing extends south from this low
across eastern Russia, across the Bering Sea and south of the
Aleutians and largely remain in place through Thursday. A 512 dam
low over the Gulf of Anadyr this afternoon will slowly meander
between the Gulf of Anadyr and St Lawrence Island through Thursday
and weaken. A 526 dam upper level low develops in the base of the
broad troughing Wednesday morning, lifting northeast towards the
western Gulf of Alaska Thursday. Meanwhile, ridge axis extends
from strong ridging in the north Pacific across the eastern Gulf
of Alaska to Yakutat northeast across the Yukon and Northwest
Territories. This ridge axis nudges eastward Wednesday with a 567
dam ridge developing over the southeastern Yukon Wednesday
afternoon. The ridge strengthens through Thursday to be 571 dam
over the central Yukon-Northwest Territories border with much of
eastern Alaska under the influence of the ridge.

At the surface, a 1002 mb low is near the North Pole with a front
extending southwest to near Point Lay. As the rotates in place,
the front lifts northeast across the offshore Arctic waters
through Wednesday. Behind this front, high pressure builds east
across the Arctic through Thursday. An elongated trough stretches
north from the eastern Aleutians to the Bering Strait, sliding
eastward along the West Coast Wednesday and persisting into
Thursday.

Models...
The 16/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
surface obs and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern. Largest differences remain with the upper level low over
the Gulf of Anadyr that develop late Wednesday. NAM is the weakest
and drops the low south, while the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian lift
the northeast. Opted to blend towards model consensus for the
forecast. Made only very minor changes to the inherited forecast
package as it was in good shape and leaned towards a general model
blend for the last twenty four hours.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow continues across the northwestern and western Arctic Coast
this afternoon as a front lifts northeast and gusty southerly
winds are ongoing in the Eastern Brooks Range. A mix of rain and
snow have been reported at Anaktuvuk Pass, allowing visibility to
improve there, but snow is still falling in other Eastern Brooks
Range locations, allowing for areas of blowing snow to persist.
Winds diminish tonight in the Brooks Range allowing conditions to
improve and the Winter Weather Advisory to be dropped. Further
east, drier conditions are expected. Temperatures in the teens
below from Utqiagvik west with 20s and 30s east and south on
Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Unsettled weather conditions persist through out the week for the
West Coast and Western Interior. Snow chances continue through
the next several days across the region, but the strong winds and
blowing snow diminish this evening. Heavy snow is likely in the
favored upslope areas of the Nulato Hills, southern Seward
Peninsula, Baird Mountains, and far western Brooks Range. Some
rain may mix in with the snow. Temperatures trend upwards, with
40s becoming common over the Western Interior and 30s along the
coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet conditions across the Central and Eastern Interior for the
week as ridging aloft builds in. Little in the way of precip is
expected. Southerly Chinook flow has developed in the Alaska Range
and will persist through much of the work week with gusts up to
60 mph. A brief lull in winds is anticipated late today, but winds
increase once again tonight. Stronger southerly flow develops
Wednesday night, especially over the Eastern Alaska Range and will
have to be monitored for potential upgrade to a High Wind
Warning. A weak Tanana Valley Jet sets up Wednesday and Thursday.
Above normal temperatures expected with highs in the upper 30s
north to lower to mid 50s by Wednesday, and potentially to near 60
in the Middle Tanana Valley by Thursday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...An Arctic low remains in place in the
high  Arctic this week while an upper level ridge axis becomes
situated over the Eastern Interior and the Yukon. An upper level
low develops over the Gulf of Anadyr with troughing extending
south of the Aleutians to an upper level low in the North Pacific.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-812.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$