625
FXUS61 KAKQ 041941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
341 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
On and off shower chances are expected this afternoon into
Sunday night. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next
week with daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area this
 afternoon with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered
 showers.

Early this morning, a backdoor front was located south and west
of the CWA. While, high pressure over New England was wedging
cool, moist air into the Mid Atlc. With the front projected to
stay south and west of the area this aftn, expect cloudy and
dreary conditions across the area. Latest radar showed sctd
showers over wrn and NE portions of the region. Chances for
showers will continue through this aftn. But, with the best
forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest
coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Minimal thunder
is expected this aftn, but could have a few rumbles in SW
counties this evening. Easterly winds will become breezy E of
I-95, esply near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph. Highs will
be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will
struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely
see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight
SE component, allowing for warmer temps in the lower to mid
70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the
FA will likely be sharp. So, expect most will see cooler highs
in the 60s.

Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight
with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will
start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly
increasing temps late tonight/early Sun. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in
the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting
the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out
the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting
shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s
(and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak
disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs
show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread
rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused
areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps
warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee
trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley,
showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE
shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the
severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger
storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric
column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to
some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper
60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may
linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-
normal temps.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the
week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly
starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb
flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of
weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest
guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of
an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These
features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow
for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this
time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-
level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have
picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least
a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the
entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues
will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the
bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for
widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the
80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue at the TAF
sites from this aftn into Sun aftn, as LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs will
prevail, along with occasional showers (isolated thunder). There
may be MVFR or VFR CIGs at ECG through the period, but the other
TAF sites will mainly have IFR or MVFR CIGs. NE or E winds 6-12
kt this aftn, will become SE or S tonight into Sun aftn.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times into Mon, due to
an unsettled weather pattern. Sctd showers and tstms are expected
at all TAF sites Sun aftn through Mon. A warmer, more summerlike
pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each
aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday
  morning.

1030mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Maine this
aftn, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks.
The wind is primarily E 10-15kt with guts up to 20kt, and
somewhat less S of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the trough.
Seas are ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay,
and 2- 3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to
increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt across the Ches. Bay
and lower James later this aftn through the early overnight
hours, before shifting to SE and diminishing slightly later
tonight. SCAs remain in effect for these zones. Seas are
expected to remain ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the
Ches. Bay, and 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay tonight.

The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front Sunday.
with the wind shifting to SE/SSE. A SSW wind returns for Monday
through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
Southerly flow should prevail through most of next week with the
next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The northern Neck remains under a Coastal Flood Advisory
  through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.

- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of
  the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood
  Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday
  morning.

Tidal departures remain 1.25-1.5ft above astronomical this
aftn, but have been steady to slowly falling as a decent ebb
tide is occurring. The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to
the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance
across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect in this area through Sunday aftn (an extension
through Sunday night/early Monday morning will likely be
needed). A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of
the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late
tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into
early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely
as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by
that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations
on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding
for the next high tide cycles, but this has not been extended
given the current ebb tide. It still appears that other than
locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak
in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn
into early Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ