065
FNUS71 KAKQ 031201
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve - Unit 1...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
801 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds are expected through most of this morning.
Winds will become southerly for a brief period this afternoon with
temperatures warming up into the mid 80s. RHs will average between
40 and 50%. An abrupt increase in easterly winds and drop in
temperatures (to the 60s) are then expected as a backdoor cold front
drops through the area in the 2-4 PM time range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 7 to
                    10 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the east 15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (45200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 62 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  38  42  47  52  55  58  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............78  82  84  85  87  82  78  73
RH..............62  55  49  45  40  47  54  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  S   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   4   4   6   8   11
20 FT wind gust.7   6   5   6   6   11  14  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.2 4.3 5.5 6.6 5.0 3.4 1.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   5   7   10  15  18
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............13  14  18  29  51  60  62  41
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9   10  13  20  37  45  44  28
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
                    light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph overnight
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 to 35.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........63  65  68  66  68  71  74  77  80  70  72  74
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............70  66  62  62  61  60  60  59  59  59  59  60
RH..............68  78  87  84  87  90  90  93  96  96  96  93
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   7   6   4   5   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.16  15  14  12  9   6   8   9   11  9   8   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.18  18  16  16  15  14  13  12  10  10  10  12
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............35  16  15  14  10  9   8   8   7   7   7   8
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23  17  11  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   7   7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (31900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 to 40.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........76     80     87     89     85     85
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
Temp............60     62     65     69     73     73
RH..............93     87     84     76     68     66
20 ft wind......E 4    E 4    E 6    E 6    SE 7   E 7
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      11     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1000   1600   2200   2900   2900
Transport wind..E 12   E 12   E 12   SE 12  SE 10  E 12
LVORI...........6      4      4      3      3      3
ADI.............8      13     23     29     34     37
Haines index....2      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      10     16     21     27     30
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...WRAY
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413068.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org