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000
FXUS61 KALY 241750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with gusty northwest winds and isolated
rumbles of thunder will diminish this evening and overnight.
High pressure building in from the west will bring dry but cool
weather through the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures
moderate over the weekend with additional chances for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A secondary cold front continues to make its way southeastward
across the region, bringing a final batch of scattered showers
currently extending along and east of I-88 and the Adirondack
Northway. Cloud breaks and southwesterly flow into the Hudson
Valley have resulted in surface heating and destabilization that
may be sufficient to support an isolated rumble of thunder
south and east of Albany through this afternoon and into this
evening. Any lingering showers over the high terrain of the
southern Greens and Adirondacks may transition to a wet snow as
colder air arrives, although little to no accumulation is
expected. As high pressure quickly builds over the eastern Great
Lakes, west to northwest winds behind the cold frontal passage
will be gusty, possibly reaching 25-30 mph along the Mohawk
Valley, across the eastern Catskills, Capital District, and
Berkshires, while 15-25 mph gusts are more likely elsewhere.

Afternoon highs will be relatively mild, reaching the 40s to
low 40s in high terrain and mid 50s to mid 60s at lower
elevations. Temperatures will rapidly cool this evening and
overnight within robust cold advection behind the frontal
passage. High pressure continuing to build to the west will see
the surface pressure gradient slacken locally, allowing winds to
lessen overnight and setting the stage for efficient radiative
cooling. With surface dewpoints in the single digits and teens,
overnight lows will dip well below normal into the upper 10s
and 20s across the region, about 5-10 degrees above record low
values for climate sites along the Hudson.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be anchored over the region for the remainder
of the week and result in clear/mostly clear and dry weather
with light winds. Following a cold morning, highs on Thursday
will only reach the 50s with some upper 40s across the higher
elevations. These values are around 5-8 degrees below normal.
Ideal radiational cooling conditions Thursday night will send
low temperatures back into the 20s to lower 30s. Weak warm air
advection on Friday will lead to a milder day with highs closer
to normal, in the 50s and 60s. It will not be as cool Friday
night with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis is expected to move east across the
region on Sat. Dry conditions should prevail at least into the
afternoon. A warm front approaching from the west will bring
increasing clouds during the afternoon and perhaps a few
showers, especially west of the Hudson Valley. Highs look to be
near normal. Southerly winds will increase with surface high
pressure shifting southeast off the New England coast. The upper
ridge will flatten out a bit, along with the surface warm front
moving through Sat night. This will result in mainly scattered
light showers. Lows will be milder in the 40s.

The warm front will lift north of our region on Sun, as upper
ridging becomes re-established. 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to
+2 STDEV are forecast. This will result in temperatures warming
to above normal levels with lower/mid 70s for highs in most
valleys. Will mention a slight/low chance of a few showers with
a surface front nearby, but overall it looks mainly dry Sun
through Sun night. The warmest temperatures are likely to occur
on Mon, with the upper ridge axis overhead, 850 mb temperatures
anomalies solidly +1 to +2 STDEV, and low level SW winds. With a
quasi-stationary front expected to be just north of the area a
few showers or storms cannot be ruled out, but again much of the
day looks dry.

A cold front is forecast to move through on Tue, bringing a
better chance for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be above normal, but not
as warm as Monday due to clouds/showers developing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is in the process of moving across the area.
Overall, flying conditions are VFR, with bkn cigs around 4-6
kft. Some additional showers may impact the TAF sites over the
next few hours, but any showers look brief. There could be quick
reduction in visibility within any shower down to MVFR/IFR
levels, but it would be very brief and overall, flying
conditions will generally be VFR. By the early evening hours,
all showers will be done and skies will begin clearing out.
Flying conditions should be VFR for tonight into Thursday, with
mainly clear skies. No radiational fog is expected overnight.

Winds will become west-northwest this afternoon and will
eventually become northerly for tonight into Thursday. Winds
will be around 10 to 15 kts for later this afternoon into this
evening with some higher gusts, but they will start to come down
for tonight around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will be lighter on
Thursday, generally around 5 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis