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000
FNUS73 KAPX 251950
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Wilbur...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
350 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

ESE winds this afternoon 5-15mph to slowly diminish tonight. Background
flow likely to remain from the SE, but could see it briefly shift to W
at times as winds diminish and inversion sets up. Expecting RHs to remain
in the 20s; current wind direction does not favor locally enhanced drying,
given terrain. Winds increase through the day Friday, still from the SE,
5-15mph, but could gust closer to 20-25mph during the afternoon. Should be
dry again Friday as well, with RHs around the 25 percent critical threshold,
though not impossible RHs could end up lower than currently forecast if
drier signals end up verifying. Expecting things to mix again Friday, though
not as deep as today. Rain chances hold off till Friday evening/overnight.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........94 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......300-400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (24.0).

TIME (EDT)      MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   4   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............32  31  29  29  29  28
RH..............72  80  87  87  90  94
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.8   8   8   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   7   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....31  25  24  24  29  28
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph increasing to southeast 17 to
                    22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1300 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3900 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (24.0-420.0) increasing to good
                    (693.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   3   1   5   8   12  16  19  23  25  26  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  30  32  41  47  51  53  55  57  58  58  59
RH..............91  92  87  64  50  38  30  28  28  29  31  31
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   12  12  12  12  12  12  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.7   7   7   18  18  18  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   7   8   12  17  20  21  21  20  20  21  22
Vrate kt-ft.....28  24  35  144 420 693 749 779 756 736 772 790
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers late in the evening. Rain showers
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........94 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 900-1200 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (412.0-699.0) decreasing to poor
                    (127.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........39     62     70     79     87     87
Weather cov.....                     SCTTRD DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............58     55     51     51     50     50
RH..............33     41     54     62     71     84
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..14     14     12     13     13     14
20 ft wind gust.21     21     20     21     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   1300   1000   1200   1000   1000
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 16  SE 17  SE 20  SE 16  S 16
Vrate kt-ft.....699    176    145    210    135    134
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    early in the morning, then numerous rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........64 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 14 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (142.0-584.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........87     86     91     90     83     74
Weather cov.....DEFNTE NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp............51     53     58     63     67     71
RH..............91     89     86     80     75     66
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      SW
20 ft wind spd..14     14     16     17     17     20
20 ft wind gust.23     23     28     29     29     30
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1000   1100   1600   2300   2800
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..S 16   S 17   S 21   SW 23  SW 24  SW 24
Vrate kt-ft.....142    150    202    326    489    584
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411589.3/APX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov,Travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov