Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 291128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 30.12Z IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL RANGE...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO NEARLY 7000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS AT THE RUNWAY IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS


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