Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 040902
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE



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