Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 160816
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH
THE PASSING SYSTEM. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS...THERE ARE ACTUALLY
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS SHOWN...WITH THE MAIN SWIRL OVER IL...
AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF GREEN BAY. MAIN DEFORMATION BAND WITH THE
SOUTHERN SWIRL FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI. WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID
UP THROUGH 1 AM...BUT A MIX WAS SUGGESTED BY SURFACE OBS AND LAPS
TEMPERATURE FIELDS TO BE JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA OF SOUTHEAST
MN. THANKFULLY...THE MAIN PUNCH OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY...SO WITH ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP LEFT TO FALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICY MIX. ONLY THREAT FOR AN ACCUMULATION
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR SERVICE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTS UP NEAR 40 MPH. ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING
TEMPS TODAY...EXPECT RAW WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TODAY AND SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT BEFORE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MANITOBA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL END UP MERGING WITH OUR
CURRENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AS THE WHOLE CONGLOMERATION WOBBLES
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME LIFT
GENERATED BY THIS SECOND WAVE...AND WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ARRIVING TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANTICIPATE SOME FLURRIES WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY...AND
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY BLOCKED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACKS WELL SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF OUR
GENERAL AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE BENIGN WEATHER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS AS TO WHAT THAT MEANS FOR OUR AREA.
BUT...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...DO NOT GIVE UP ON A WHITE
CHRISTMAS JUST YET...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD FRONT AS OF 16.05Z EXTENDED FROM KRPD TO KFKA TO KMIW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT
VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1 SM THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT AGL BY 16.12Z.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS AT KRST AND 24 KTS AT KLSE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/MIST WILL
TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW...SO DO NOT PLAN TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX AT EITHER TAF SITE. SHOULD SEE SNOW AT KRST BY 13.09Z
AND BY 13.12Z AT KLSE. SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 TO 3SM. LIGHT SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...ROGERS


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