Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 271736
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE EXIT OF THE SNOW TODAY...SKY COVER/
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY PERIOD AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. 27.00Z GFS/NAM/
ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH FEW INITIALIZATION
ERRORS...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

27.09Z SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE IA/WI/IL BORDERS WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY 28.00Z.
925 HPA ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM BISECTS FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE RADAR 0.5 DEGREE DUAL-POL PRODUCTS SHOWING SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHARLES CITY TO LA CROSSE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL PRECIP EXPECTED
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR OOZES
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION
SNOW/RAIN WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST RAP/HRRR DRYING OUT THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 27.18 AND 27.21Z. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOW TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
AUSTIN TO WINONA TO WAUSAU. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIPPERY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
GIVEN 20 KTS TO MIX IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BROAD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE MET BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOWING FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG
MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT AND THE NEXT SHOT OF REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR.
GFS/NAM/GEM MORE BULLISH WITH QPF COMPARED TO THE DRY ECMWF...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW. EVEN STILL...
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TEMPERATURES BOTTOM-OUT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS 925 HPA VALUES BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PLUMMET TO
BETWEEN 18 AND 20 BELOW CELSIUS BY 31.06Z. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS LIKELY TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS 20 BELOW NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 10 ABOVE. HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME WELCOME RELIEF TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/FOG OF
THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE SO THAT HIGHS BY NEW YEARS
DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SNOWFALL WILL COME FRIDAY WITH DUELING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF PRECIP THAT
MAY COMBINE/INTERACT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PRECLUDES MENTION OF POPS HIGHER
THAN 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS-END MAY RISE BACK INTO THE
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS
OF IFR AT RST AND MVFR AT LSE. DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP BRING RST BACK UP TO
MVFR SHORTLY. CLEARING OVER WESTERN MN AND IOWA LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BUT DID DELAY THE CLEARING
1 HOUR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF BASED ON LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH MN. PASSAGE OF THAT FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO
BRING A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR STRATUS.

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
AT RST...SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND ONSET OF DAYTIME COOLING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ



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