Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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630
FXUS63 KARX 251713
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1213 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Upper level trough/closed 500 mb low sits over the southern plains
early this morning, progged to take a somewhat slow trek northeast
into the eastern great lakes by Sunday night. The better
frontogenetic/thermodynamic forcing has shifted east, as has the
upper level jet support. The stronger low level jet/moisture
transport has also moved off to the east. All that said, still have
the upper level low and its various ripples/spokes of energy to
rotate across the region for today and Sunday. NAEFS pw anomalies
still +1 to +2. Plenty of saturation to play with. Expect the
showers to persist, especially tonight through the better part of
Sunday. Would normal expect minor additional accumulations over the
next couple days with the weak forcing, but the anomalously moist
airmass, could still result in 1/4 to 1/2 inch amounts for some.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Variable pattern at the moment for next week with the
northern/southern branches of the upper level flow both coming into
play......or not. Southern stream looks fairly active, with both the
GFS and the EC moving at least two 500 mb troughs from the desert
southwest to the oh valley/great lakes regions. They differ in
timing and placement. Latest EC more aggressive compared to some
previous runs with bringing a shortwave into the region for Thu -
resulting in a wet day. The GFS is south. On the otherhand, the GFS
would suggest more action locally from the northern branch, dropping
a shortwave trough across the northern plains-upper mississippi
river valley Fri night-Sat. The GFS...stays north. Volatile,
springish pattern which will likely swing back and forth in their
potential solutions/outcomes until we get closer to the actual day.
Will let the consensus continue to detail the pcpn chances.

As for temps, at or above normal for late March still looks on track
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The rain has been slow to move in today and remains well south of
both airports late early this afternoon. Still expecting this to
work its way north through the evening as the surface low over
Missouri moves northeast. The rain should be pretty light and not
expecting much, if any, visibility restrictions from the rain. The
rain should begin to move off to the east and be away from both
airports by late evening. Ceilings will not improve during this
period as the low level boundary layer remains saturated and look
for these to be IFR through the period. This saturated boundary
layer will likely lead to some fog formation overnight as the
surface winds drop to under 10 knots. Plan to show this going down
to IFR for both airports but with winds just above the surface
remaining around 15 knots, not expecting this to drop to go below
2 miles.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04



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