Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232057
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA.  IF THE FOG
DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE LOW
ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATES GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION PLACING THE HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS
THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN
ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE
ANY SNOW. THE ECWMF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUTNS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS EAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER AIR
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW HOURS OF FULL SUN LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING AS BACK EDGE OF MID-CLOUD DECK ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW STRATUS DROPS SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MN. DELAYED ONSET
OF THESE LOWER CEILINGS UNTIL 24.01Z AT KSRT AND 24.02Z AT KLSE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD...IFR CHANCES AND LIGHT SNOW INCREASE AT KRST/KLSE
AFTER 25.00Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS


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