Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 220747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
247 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH STRATUS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE STRATUS HAS
PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND THE PERSISTENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
DESPITE THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
TONIGHT FROM 1 AM THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOR
JACKSON...MONROE...JUNEAU...AND ADAMS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

ON SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS AS A
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE EDGES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WE COLD SEE SOME AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT. WITH THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH GREEN UP IN
FULL SWING...WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AS LOW PRESSURE EDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SITUATE ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THIS FRONT COULD
SET UP CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO WATCH FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES IN...BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE BUILD AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALL RIDE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN WE SEE AND THE DEW POINT RESPONSE. IF WE CAN BUILD THE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
DETERMINE IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE LOW
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS IS SHOWING A DEEPER AND FASTER LOW
VERSUS THE NAM. SO SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT YET. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM WE LOOK TO ENTER A COOLER PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
SIGNALS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER LOW
COLD APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN STRATUS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 1500 TO 2500 FT. THE STRATUS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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