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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
000 FGUS73 KARX 291407 ESFARX IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169- WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-121800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 905 AM CST FRI MAR 29 2013 ...UPDATED SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...US DROUGHT MONITOR...AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/. THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. *** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS *** IN SUMMARY...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THIS SPRING REMAINS ABOUT NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO A TYPICAL YEAR. THERE IS A RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR SOME OF THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS FEEDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS IN WISCONSIN. THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF IS STILL RATHER SMALL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS SPRING. THE FROST CONDITION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE FROST DEPTH IS STILL RATHER DEEP FOR LATE MARCH...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET DEEP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE TOP SEVERAL INCHES OF SOIL REMAINS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES...LEADING TO WHAT IS CALLED CONCRETE FROST. THIS FROZEN SOIL WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RUNOFF INTO CREEKS AND RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS...AS ANY MELT WATER WILL BE UNABLE TO PENETRATE THE FROZEN GROUND...AND WILL DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE WARM PERIOD THIS WEEK IS HELPING TO MELT OFF SOME OF THE SNOW COVER. BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AGAIN TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST AND SECOND WEEKS OF APRIL. ANOTHER CONCERN IS...THE LONGER THE FROZEN GROUND AND SNOW COVER LASTS INTO APRIL...THE GREATER THE RISK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM UP AND ALLOW THE SNOW TO QUICKLY MELT. A FAST MELT...OR A MELT COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WILL BE A RECIPE FOR MORE SEVERE FLOODING. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED. *** FLOOD POTENTIAL *** IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BLK RVR FLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 57 55 27 26 <5 5 GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 59 53 41 37 <5 <5 :CEDAR RIVER LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CHARLES CTY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 9 16 <5 8 <5 <5 :TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 16 16 14 14 11 13 :KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 VIOLA 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 29 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 34 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 SLDRS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 24 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 39 41 6 8 <5 <5 STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 32 33 13 12 <5 <5 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 26 <5 8 <5 6 WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 39 55 <5 18 <5 6 ALMA 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 <5 DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 6 29 <5 14 <5 6 DAM 5A 656.0 659.0 661.0 : 6 27 <5 6 <5 6 WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 18 41 <5 21 <5 6 TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 13 34 <5 16 <5 6 LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 8 34 <5 13 <5 6 LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 16 36 <5 21 <5 6 GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 24 47 <5 11 <5 6 LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 6 27 <5 6 <5 <5 MCGREGOR 16.0 20.0 23.0 : 29 52 <5 18 <5 6 GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 21 49 <5 9 <5 <5 :ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER HILLSBORO 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 27 19 11 8 <5 <5 :SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TREMPEALEAU RIVER DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 75 51 8 <5 <5 <5 :TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 41 36 9 14 <5 6 GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 18 21 9 14 6 6 :UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 26 26 8 11 6 <5 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 32 26 9 11 <5 <5 :ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 9 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET *** CLIMATE OVERVIEW *** THE REGION CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS TO A SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/. DURING MARCH OF 2013...NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FELL ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THUS...IT ADDED TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW PACK. DURING THE PAST WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS RUNNING OFF INTO AREA RIVERS DUE TO THE DEEP FROST /UP TO 3 FEET/. MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THESE AREAS SAW WITHIN-BANK RISES OF 2 TO 5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 3 TO 12 INCHES. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THIS SNOW PACK RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE IN THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASINS...WHERE SNOW WATER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE FOUND. WITH FROST DEPTHS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...THIS CONCRETE FROST WILL GREATLY IMPEDE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT CAN MAKE IT INTO THE SOILS. THUS...MUCH OF THIS WATER IS EXPECTED TO END UP IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MAY NOT HELP IMPROVE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS MUCH. DUE TO THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN PLACE...RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REVERT BACK TO THE LOW CONDITIONS AFTER THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF SEASON. *** LONG RANGE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK *** THE OUTLOOK IN TABLE 2 BELOW WILL SHOW THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING AT SEVERAL SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 9.1 9.5 10.1 11.7 13.7 16.0 17.7 BLK RVR FLS 43.7 44.3 45.4 48.2 51.2 53.0 54.3 GALESVILLE 9.8 10.4 11.1 12.4 13.4 13.9 14.5 :CEDAR RIVER LANSING 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.6 16.7 18.2 AUSTIN 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.9 12.0 14.1 CHARLES CTY 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.8 10.0 13.6 15.3 :TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 6.3 6.4 6.7 7.9 9.3 14.4 15.1 :KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 5.3 5.4 6.2 7.2 9.4 10.2 11.3 VIOLA 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.6 14.5 15.4 15.6 READSTOWN 7.3 7.3 7.9 10.1 11.6 12.6 13.1 SLDRS GROVE 9.6 9.7 10.2 11.8 13.0 14.1 15.3 GAYS MILLS 10.1 10.2 10.8 12.4 13.7 14.5 16.0 STEUBEN 9.7 9.8 10.4 11.4 12.5 13.2 14.0 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 10.1 10.6 11.9 13.3 14.5 15.8 16.3 WABASHA 9.3 9.6 10.6 11.7 12.5 13.3 13.8 ALMA 7.3 7.7 8.7 10.2 11.4 12.6 13.2 DAM 5 653.7 654.1 655.3 657.1 658.5 659.8 660.6 DAM 5A 649.3 649.7 650.8 652.7 654.1 655.7 656.5 WINONA 7.8 8.2 9.4 11.2 12.6 14.1 15.0 TREMPEALEAU 642.4 642.7 643.6 645.1 646.3 647.4 648.1 LA CRESCENT 635.5 636.2 637.1 638.8 640.0 640.9 641.8 LA CROSSE 7.0 7.6 8.8 10.4 11.5 12.3 13.0 GENOA 626.1 626.9 628.2 629.8 631.0 631.8 632.6 LANSING 8.9 9.4 10.2 11.5 12.8 14.1 15.1 LYNXVILLE 618.2 618.8 620.0 621.6 623.0 624.4 625.4 MCGREGOR 11.0 11.7 13.0 15.0 16.6 19.0 20.2 GUTTENBERG 10.1 10.6 11.9 13.6 14.8 16.5 17.7 :ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 7.8 7.8 8.3 9.1 12.7 14.7 16.2 :SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER HILLSBORO 7.0 7.1 9.2 12.1 13.1 14.2 14.7 :SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.1 5.8 11.0 15.2 :TREMPEALEAU RIVER DODGE 8.4 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.9 11.1 :TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 7.6 7.8 8.9 10.9 13.3 16.7 21.0 GARBER 9.1 9.7 10.9 13.0 16.3 20.0 27.4 :UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.2 6.8 8.6 10.1 DORCHESTER 10.0 10.0 10.3 11.8 14.1 16.8 20.5 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 5.6 5.8 6.3 7.7 9.4 10.1 11.1 :ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 8.4 8.8 9.7 11.1 13.2 18.9 20.9 :SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 4.9 5.0 5.3 6.4 7.9 11.6 17.2 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE) ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC THIS IS THE LAST SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON. REFER TO OUR WEB SITE FOR MORE INFORMATION AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE $$ WELVAERT/BOYNE
- National Weather Service
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- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC