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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
000
FGUS73 KARX 031432
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
930 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLK RVR FLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 31 25 16 8 <5 <5
GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 39 23 18 14 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CHARLES CTY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 24 18 14 6 6 <5
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 29 19 26 18 16 13
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
VIOLA 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 23 16 6 <5 <5 <5
READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 29 21 9 <5 <5 <5
SLDRS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 19 14 8 <5 <5 <5
GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 47 25 11 7 6 <5
STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 31 21 19 12 6 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : >95 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : >95 29 21 6 <5 <5
ALMA 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : >95 9 11 6 <5 <5
DAM 5A 656.0 659.0 661.0 : >95 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : >95 16 >95 8 <5 <5
TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : >95 13 16 6 <5 <5
LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : >95 13 13 <5 <5 <5
LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : >95 13 >95 8 <5 <5
GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : >95 21 11 <5 <5 <5
LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : >95 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCGREGOR 16.0 20.0 23.0 : >95 26 29 9 <5 <5
GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : >95 24 24 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 21 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 27 16 14 9 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 19 8 8 <5 <5 <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : >95 23 14 <5 <5 <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 49 27 19 14 8 <5
GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 32 21 21 11 16 6
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 39 21 18 8 9 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 11 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 19 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 7.9 7.9 8.2 9.8 12.2 14.0 15.8
BLK RVR FLS 43.0 43.0 43.2 44.7 47.6 53.0 53.9
GALESVILLE 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.5 13.8 14.3
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING 14.0 14.0 14.3 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.2
AUSTIN 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.8 11.0 13.1 14.4
CHARLES CTY 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.3 12.4 16.7 19.7
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 7.0 7.1 7.4 8.7 12.5 15.6 17.6
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 4.2 4.9 5.8 7.1 8.6 11.7 14.1
VIOLA 10.4 10.6 11.8 12.8 13.7 16.3 19.3
READSTOWN 7.0 7.1 8.7 10.1 11.3 14.0 16.2
SLDRS GROVE 9.8 9.9 10.7 11.9 12.8 15.8 19.8
GAYS MILLS 11.1 11.2 11.7 12.8 13.5 16.3 20.7
STEUBEN 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.3 14.4 17.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.5 17.4 18.1
WABASHA 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.7 15.4
ALMA 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.1
DAM 5 660.6 660.7 660.7 660.8 661.3 662.4 662.9
DAM 5A 656.5 656.6 656.6 656.8 657.2 658.2 658.7
WINONA 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.8 17.3
TREMPEALEAU 648.1 648.1 648.2 648.3 648.8 649.5 649.7
LA CRESCENT 641.9 641.9 642.0 642.1 642.5 643.2 643.7
LA CROSSE 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5
GENOA 632.9 632.9 633.0 633.1 633.6 634.3 635.1
LANSING 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.7 16.2 17.1 18.3
LYNXVILLE 625.6 625.7 625.8 626.0 626.5 627.5 628.8
MCGREGOR 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.9 21.5 23.7
GUTTENBERG 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 18.1 18.7 20.4
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.2 14.4 16.7 17.3
:SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO 5.9 6.1 6.7 12.0 13.2 14.8 15.3
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 4.8 4.8 5.0 7.2 10.5 14.6 19.3
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.6 11.5 11.6
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 10.6 10.6 10.7 12.1 15.2 19.8 22.3
GARBER 13.7 13.7 14.1 15.4 19.4 24.8 30.8
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 4.9 4.9 5.3 6.4 7.7 9.9 12.0
DORCHESTER 11.9 11.9 12.1 13.1 15.6 19.7 23.2
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 10.2
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.2 17.8 21.6 24.8
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 6.4 6.4 6.8 8.0 9.4 15.6 19.2
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
BLK RVR FLS 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.3 35.3
GALESVILLE 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3
AUSTIN 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
CHARLES CTY 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6
VIOLA 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9
READSTOWN 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
SLDRS GROVE 5.9 5.5 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
GAYS MILLS 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0
STEUBEN 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 7.9 7.7 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9
WABASHA 8.0 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9
ALMA 5.7 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
DAM 5 652.3 652.0 651.4 651.3 651.2 651.1 651.1
DAM 5A 647.1 646.8 646.0 646.0 645.8 645.7 645.6
WINONA 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
TREMPEALEAU 641.1 640.8 640.0 639.8 639.6 639.5 639.4
LA CRESCENT 633.7 633.4 632.1 631.8 631.5 631.4 631.3
LA CROSSE 6.2 6.0 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8
GENOA 624.2 623.8 622.2 621.7 621.2 620.9 620.8
LANSING 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7
LYNXVILLE 616.7 616.2 614.6 613.8 613.2 612.7 612.4
MCGREGOR 9.2 8.9 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.4
GUTTENBERG 7.9 7.6 5.8 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.0
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
:SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
GARBER 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
DORCHESTER 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.4
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE)
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MAY.
$$
MW
- National Weather Service
- La Crosse, WI Weather Forecast Office
- N2788 County Road FA
- LaCrosse, WI 54601
- 608-784-7294
- Page Author: ARX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-arx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:32 UTC