Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
119 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Second Spring Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...

This is the second of two planned hydrologic outlooks providing
spring snow melt and flood potential information for 2017. Optional
outlooks may be issued after this release.

This outlook contains information which was collected from a number
of sources, including the United States Geological Survey /USGS/,
the US Army Corps of Engineers /USACE/, and Midwest Regional Climate
Center /MRCC/, High Plains Regional Climate Center /HPRCC/, and US
Drought Monitor /NIDIS/, and the National Operational Remote Sensing
Center /NOHRSC/.

This outlook is a summary of the past and present basin conditions
for parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into
central Wisconsin.

***Flood Potential Highlights***

Overall, the flood potential for this springs looks to be near to
slightly above normal. The Mississippi River and some Wisconsin
Tributaries /especially the Black, Kickapoo, and Wisconsin Rivers/
are the main areas that have experienced flooding already this
spring and continue to have an elevated flood risk.

Soil moisture across the region is high due to heavy rains last
summer and early fall. Many rivers are experiencing above normal
levels for this time of year. Due to the recent snow, the snowpack
covers mainly southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Additional
rainfall or any heavy snows would be the main driver of flooding
concerns going into this spring.

We are expecting above normal temperatures over the next couple of
weeks and this will melt the snowpack over southeast Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. This will cause some river rises across these
areas.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor...Moderate...and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding...
                    Valid  Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS

--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  15   25    8    9   <5    5
Wabasha             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  53   57   14   19   <5    9
Alma Dam 4          16.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
MN City Dam 5      660.0  662.0  665.0 :  18   27   11   12   <5    6
Winona Dam 5A      655.0  659.0  661.0 :  25   39    6    9   <5    5
Winona              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  34   45   15   22   <5    9
Trempealeau        647.0  649.0  651.0 :  24   37   12   14   <5    7
La Crescent        641.0  643.0  645.0 :  20   32    9   12   <5    7
La Crosse           12.0   13.0   15.5 :  32   45   15   26   <5    8
Genoa              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  41   49    9   11   <5    7
Lansing             17.0   19.0   20.0 :   7   10   <5    8   <5   <5
Lynxville          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  15   23    6    9   <5   <5
McGregor            16.0   19.0   22.0 :  57   52   15   26    7    9
Guttenberg          15.0   18.0   21.0 :  39   44   13   13   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls        18.0   24.0   26.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester           14.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
Houston             15.0   17.0   18.0 :   8   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro           12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Lansing             18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Austin              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   10   <5    7   <5    5
Osage               22.0   24.0   27.0 :   7   14   <5    6   <5   <5
Charles City        12.0   15.0   18.0 :  11   21   <5   10   <5    6
:Turtle Creek
Austin              10.5   12.0   14.0 :   8   15   <5    6   <5   <5
:Turkey River
Elkader             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  24   44   12   17   <5   <5
Garber              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  26   38   17   22   11   11
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dorchester          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  15   23   10    8    6   <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia              8.0    9.0   10.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dodge                9.0   11.0   12.0 :  44   61   <5    7   <5   <5
:Black River
Neillsville         18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Black River Falls   47.0   51.0   55.0 :  37   61   14   27   <5   <5
Galesville          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  35   56   17   38   <5   <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge            12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Viola               14.0   16.0   18.0 :  48   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Readstown           11.0   14.0   16.0 :  55   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
Soldiers Grove      13.0   16.0   19.0 :  39   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
Gays Mills          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  69   48   12    8   <5   <5
Steuben             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  62   39   25   14   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda              9.0   10.0   11.0 :   8   15   <5    7   <5   <5
:Yellow River
Necedah             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  67   86   28   56   <5   15

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

*** Climate Information ***

Due to the unusually warm February, much of the snow pack has melted
across the region. The only snow still on the ground at this time is
located from southeast Minnesota northeastward into north-central
Wisconsin and in central and southwest Wisconsin. This snow contains
up to three-quarters of an inch of water. With well above-normal
temperatures expected this weekend, this snow is expected to melt
and produce elevated river levels.

As we head into Spring, there will be enhanced chances for warmer-
than-normal temperatures across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Meanwhile, there will be a near-normal risk of precipitation for
March and enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation.

***Flood Potential Information***

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                              Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                 At Specific Locations
                          Valid  Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City            12.8   12.9   12.9   13.9   15.2   17.3   18.3
Wabasha              11.5   11.5   11.5   12.1   12.9   14.6   15.6
Alma Dam 4            9.7    9.8    9.8   10.8   12.1   14.3   15.3
MN City Dam 5       656.8  656.8  656.9  657.9  659.3  662.1  663.3
Winona Dam 5A       652.4  652.5  652.5  653.5  655.0  657.9  659.1
Winona               10.9   10.9   11.0   12.0   13.5   16.6   17.8
Trempealeau         645.0  645.0  645.0  645.7  646.8  649.2  650.0
La Crescent         638.8  638.8  638.9  639.5  640.4  642.8  643.7
La Crosse            10.6   10.7   10.7   11.3   12.1   14.2   15.0
Genoa               630.0  630.0  630.1  630.6  631.6  633.9  634.8
Lansing              11.8   11.8   11.9   12.3   13.7   16.5   17.7
Lynxville           622.1  622.1  622.1  622.6  623.9  626.8  628.1
McGregor             15.6   15.7   15.7   16.4   18.1   21.5   23.0
Guttenberg           14.0   14.0   14.1   14.5   15.9   18.4   20.0
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls         10.2   10.4   10.9   12.1   13.6   15.0   18.8
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester             5.6    5.6    6.1    6.9    8.1    9.0   13.5
:Root River
Houston               6.8    6.9    8.1    9.2   12.3   14.6   16.2
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro             3.8    3.9    4.5    5.4    7.7   10.3   11.6
:Cedar River
Lansing              13.7   13.8   14.2   14.9   15.6   16.1   16.8
Austin                7.6    7.8    8.4    9.6   10.7   11.9   12.8
Osage                18.0   18.1   18.4   19.1   20.4   21.3   22.2
Charles City          6.4    6.6    7.1    8.2   10.3   12.8   14.8
:Turtle Creek
Austin                5.9    6.1    6.2    6.9    8.1    9.5   11.7
:Turkey River
Elkader               8.3    8.7    9.2   10.3   11.9   17.8   18.6
Garber               10.1   10.7   12.1   14.4   17.3   24.0   29.0
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah               3.9    4.1    4.6    5.1    6.0    7.9    8.9
Dorchester            9.5    9.8   10.6   11.4   12.6   16.8   19.7
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia               4.3    4.8    5.4    6.2    6.8    7.6    8.2
Dodge                 6.7    7.4    8.2    8.9    9.5   10.1   10.9
:Black River
Neillsville           6.4    7.0    8.3    9.6   11.2   13.0   13.5
Black River Falls    40.2   41.2   43.2   45.0   48.7   51.9   52.8
Galesville            7.7    8.1    9.8   11.1   12.6   13.4   13.9
:Kickapoo River
La Farge              5.6    6.7    7.7    8.7   10.3   11.2   11.4
Viola                11.3   12.2   12.9   13.7   14.8   15.6   15.8
Readstown             7.9    8.7   10.1   11.2   12.1   13.0   13.6
Soldiers Grove       10.4   10.8   11.8   12.8   13.6   14.5   15.3
Gays Mills           11.3   11.7   12.8   13.6   14.2   15.2   16.0
Steuben              10.8   11.2   11.6   12.4   13.0   13.7   14.0
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda               4.1    4.2    5.7    6.9    8.1    8.8    9.9
:Yellow River
Necedah              13.8   13.9   14.2   15.4   16.5   17.4   18.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatologicial data, including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow cover and 30 and 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of rise associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

All of this information is also available in graphical format on the
internet at:

http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse

$$



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