Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

     ...SECOND SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE SECOND OF TWO PLANNED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION
AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS
OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
/MRCC/...HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /HPRCC/...US DROUGHT
MONITOR /NIDIS/...AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER
/NOHRSC/.

THE OUTLOOK THAT FOLLOWS BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT
BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

OVERALL...WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND WARM PATTERN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING THIS SPRING IS SHIFTING LOWER. THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOW LOOKING TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW PARAMETERS SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED FLOOD
RISK...BUT SEVERAL OTHERS THAT POINT TO A LOWER RISK. CONSIDERING
ALL FACTORS TOGETHER...IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL RISK IS
BELOW NORMAL. ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM
SPRING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SOME SNOW
ANTICIPATED TO END THE WEEK OVER THE UPPER PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN
RIVER BASIN. BUT THE PATTERN SHIFTS WARM AGAIN NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
MELTING AWAY THE SNOW COVER AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME RENEWED
RIVER RISES AGAIN...BUT THE RISK FOR FLOODING FROM THIS IS LOW.


IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  11   25   <5    9   <5   <5
WABASHA             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  28   56    8   19   <5    9
ALMA                16.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
DAM 5              660.0  662.0  665.0 :  11   27   <5   12   <5    6
DAM 5A             656.0  659.0  661.0 :  11   27   <5    9   <5    5
WINONA              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  19   44   10   20   <5    9
TREMPEALEAU        647.0  649.0  651.0 :  12   35   <5   13   <5    7
LA CRESCENT        641.0  643.0  645.0 :  11   32   <5   12   <5    7
LA CROSSE           12.0   13.0   15.5 :  17   45   10   23   <5    8
GENOA              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  20   48   <5   11   <5    7
LANSING             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5    9   <5    8   <5   <5
LYNXVILLE          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  10   23   <5    9   <5   <5
MCGREGOR            16.0   19.0   22.0 :  22   52   10   25   <5    9
GUTTENBERG          15.0   18.0   21.0 :  14   43   <5   13   <5   <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS          18.0   24.0   26.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER           14.0   18.0   20.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON             15.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO           12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING             18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
AUSTIN              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   13   <5    8   <5    6
OSAGE               22.0   24.0   27.0 :   8   19   <5    9   <5   <5
CHARLES CTY         12.0   15.0   18.0 :  12   24   <5   12   <5    9
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN              10.5   12.0   14.0 :   8   15   <5    6   <5   <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  31   49   12   19   <5   <5
GARBER              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  23   38   13   21    8   11
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DORCHESTER          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  17   35    7    9   <5   <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCADIA              8.0    9.0   10.0 :   7   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
DODGE                9.0   11.0   12.0 :  24   52   <5    6   <5   <5
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE         18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLK RVR FLS         47.0   51.0   55.0 :  25   60    8   22   <5   <5
GALESVILLE          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  30   62   17   41   <5   <5
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE            12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VIOLA               14.0   16.0   18.0 :  28   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
READSTOWN           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  33   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLDRS GROVE         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  20   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
GAYS MILLS          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  49   48    5    8   <5   <5
STEUBEN             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  15   21   <5    8   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA              9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5    6   <5    5   <5   <5
:YELLOW RIVER
NECEDAH             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  34   73   14   40   <5   14


*** CLIMATE INFORMATION ***

FROM NOVEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 28 2015...5 TO 7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAS 2 TO 3 INCHES WETTER THAN NORMAL.
EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES FELL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WAS 3 TO 7 INCHES WETTER
THAN NORMAL. WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBERS AND DECEMBERS ON
RECORD...MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION SATURATED THE SOIL AND THE REST
OF IT WAS CARRIED DOWNSTREAM...WHERE IT CAUSED RECORD FLOODING ALONG
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FROM DECEMBER 29 2015 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY...1.5 TO 3 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH
TEMPERATURES 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SINCE MID-FEBRUARY...MUCH
OF THE SNOW MELTED SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. THIS WATER HAS ALREADY
ENTERED EITHER SOILS OR IS BEING TRANSPORTED AWAY FROM THE AREA IN
THE RIVER AND STREAMS.

FROM FEBRUARY 29TH THROUGH MARCH 1ST...1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE WATER EQUIVALENT WITH THIS
SNOW IS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THIS NEW SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY.

AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING OF 2016...EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THERE
ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TYPICALLY
DURING AN EL NINO EVENT...MARCH TENDS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH ITS PRECIPITATION...AND THEY TEND TO BE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL IN
APRIL AND MAY.


*** FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION ***

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING
WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO
2015. THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS VERY GENERAL. A MORE QUANTIFIED RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH WEB
GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50

THE FALL AND WINTER PERIOD BEGAN RATHER WET...WITH WARM AND RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. SOILS WERE VERY MOIST
GOING INTO THE FREEZE UP...AND RIVERS WERE RUNNING HIGH. THEN THE
COLD WEATHER FINALLY SETTLED IN FOR JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS
CAUSED THE MOISTURE TO FREEZE IN THE SOILS...AND RIVERS CONTINUED TO
RUN HIGH ALL WINTER LONG. STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AS REPORTED BY THE
USGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...RUNNING IN THE
HIGHEST 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF ALL HISTORICAL RECORDS. BUT TIMELY SNOW
PUT A BLANKET ON THE GROUND...INSULATING THE FROST FROM GOING TOO
DEEP.

THE PAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS WERE RATHER WARM...MELTING OFF MOST OF
THE SNOW COVER...AND ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE ICE TO RUN OUT FROM
THE RIVER SYSTEMS.  BUT SNOW FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING A FEW
INCHES BACK ONTO THE LANDSCAPE. WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING
SNOW IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 TO
18 INCHES.

WHEN LOOKING AT ALL OF THE FACTORS...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING LOOK BELOW NORMAL.
ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM SPRING
THUNDERSTORMS.


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY             9.2   10.2   11.7   12.6   14.2   16.3   16.7
WABASHA               8.9    9.4   10.5   11.4   12.3   13.8   14.1
ALMA                  6.7    7.4    8.6    9.5   11.0   13.1   13.6
DAM 5               653.2  653.9  655.2  656.3  658.0  660.6  661.3
DAM 5A              648.5  649.5  650.7  651.8  653.6  656.5  657.1
WINONA                7.2    8.0    9.3   10.3   12.1   15.0   15.7
TREMPEALEAU         641.8  642.5  643.6  644.4  645.8  648.0  648.6
LA CRESCENT         634.9  635.6  636.9  638.0  639.4  641.6  642.3
LA CROSSE             6.8    7.4    8.8    9.9   11.2   13.2   13.8
GENOA               625.5  626.3  627.9  629.2  630.5  632.5  633.3
LANSING               8.7    9.0    9.9   10.9   12.0   14.7   15.7
LYNXVILLE           617.6  618.3  619.6  620.8  622.3  624.9  626.0
MCGREGOR             10.6   11.2   12.8   13.8   15.8   18.8   20.1
GUTTENBERG            9.7   10.2   11.7   12.8   14.1   16.7   17.8
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS            8.3    8.6    9.6   11.2   12.9   14.6   19.3
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER             4.3    4.6    5.2    6.4    7.6    8.8   14.5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON               4.9    5.1    5.8    7.5    8.7   10.7   13.7
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO             3.2    3.4    3.8    4.5    5.5    7.8    9.1
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING              12.3   12.8   13.6   14.2   15.4   16.1   16.6
AUSTIN                5.9    6.4    7.4    8.7   10.6   11.8   12.5
OSAGE                16.6   16.9   17.8   18.8   20.0   21.2   22.5
CHARLES CTY           5.2    5.4    6.9    8.2    9.9   13.3   14.2
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN                3.1    3.3    5.0    6.0    7.3    9.3   10.9
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER               7.7    8.3    8.8   10.4   12.4   16.8   18.3
GARBER                9.2    9.8   11.1   13.3   16.3   21.3   28.2
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH               3.8    3.9    4.5    5.0    5.9    8.2    9.4
DORCHESTER            9.2    9.5   10.4   11.4   12.5   16.2   18.3
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCADIA               4.2    4.4    5.4    6.0    6.4    7.5    8.5
DODGE                 6.1    6.5    7.6    8.4    9.0    9.9   10.7
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE           7.6    8.0    8.7    9.8   11.5   13.4   14.1
BLK RVR FLS          41.3   42.0   43.1   44.8   47.0   50.8   51.9
GALESVILLE            8.0    9.0    9.9   11.1   12.3   13.4   13.6
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE              4.6    5.4    6.5    7.2    9.3   10.6   11.0
VIOLA                10.5   11.2   12.2   12.8   14.1   15.0   15.2
READSTOWN             6.8    7.4    8.7   10.4   11.3   12.4   13.2
SLDRS GROVE           9.4    9.7   10.8   12.2   12.9   13.9   14.7
GAYS MILLS           10.0   10.4   11.5   12.8   13.6   14.4   15.1
STEUBEN               9.3    9.6   10.4   10.9   11.6   12.5   12.9
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA               3.2    3.4    3.8    5.8    6.6    7.6    8.8
:YELLOW RIVER
NECEDAH              11.8   12.5   13.9   14.6   15.6   16.7   16.9

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT THE END OF MARCH.

$$

WELVAERT/BOYNE



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