Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-042100-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CST FRI MAR 28 2014

     ...THIRD SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE THIRD AND FINAL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
PROVIDING SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION AS WELL
AS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THIS SPRING. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS
INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/NCRFC/...UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...US ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS /USACE/...MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...AND THE
NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/.

THE OUTLOOK THAT FOLLOWS BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT
BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

OVERALL...DESPITE THE COOL SPRING SO FAR...ONCE AGAIN THERE HAS NOT
BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE ORIGINAL OUTLOOK ISSUED IN EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS WISCONSIN REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...
AND FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS NEAR NORMAL.

MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN ALL OF ITS SNOW MELT...AND THAT RUNOFF HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS. THE ONLY SNOW THAT REMAINS IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE BLACK
AND WISCONSIN RIVER BASINS. SO THE ONLY RISK FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING IS
IN THESE AREAS...AND OVERALL THAT RISK IS LOW.

THE GROUND DOES REMAIN FROZEN...DUE TO THE LONG AND COLD WINTER WHICH
SENT FROST DEPTHS DOWN SEVERAL FEET. THE EFFECTS OF THIS WERE SEEN WITH
THE RAIN ON THURSDAY...WHERE AMOUNTS FROM A HALF INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES AND EVEN SOME MINOR FLOODING FOR AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. WHILE THIS FROST REMAINS...RUNOFF FROM ANY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.

ICE HAS NOW ALL MELTED OUT OF THE MAJORITY OF AREA RIVERS...SO THE
RISK FOR ICE JAMS HAS WANED. THE ONLY RIVER WHERE ICE REMAINS A SMALL
CONCERN IS THE BLACK RIVER ABOVE LAKE ARBUTUS.


TABLE 1 BELOW DEPICTS THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE         18.0   20.0   22.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLK RVR FLS         47.0   51.0   55.0 :  90   56   49   30    9    6
GALESVILLE          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  87   52   63   35   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING             18.0   20.0   22.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
AUSTIN              15.0   18.0   20.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHARLES CTY         12.0   15.0   18.0 :  23   16   12    9   <5   <5
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN              10.5   12.0   14.0 :  30   15   16   13   15   10
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE            12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VIOLA               14.0   17.0   20.0 :  32   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
READSTOWN           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  38   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLDRS GROVE         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  27   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
GAYS MILLS          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  50   46    7    7   <5   <5
STEUBEN             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  41   38   16   12   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  33   26   <5    7   <5    6
WABASHA             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  83   56   23   18   <5    6
ALMA                16.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5    6   <5    6   <5   <5
DAM 5              660.0  662.0  665.0 :  35   30    6   13   <5    6
DAM 5A             656.0  659.0  661.0 :  35   29   <5    6   <5    6
WINONA              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  52   41   27   21   <5    6
TREMPEALEAU        647.0  649.0  651.0 :  47   33   13   16   <5    6
LA CRESCENT        641.0  643.0  645.0 :  41   33   <5   12   <5    6
LA CROSSE           12.0   13.0   15.5 :  47   35   26   21   <5    6
GENOA              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  60   47    6   10   <5    6
LANSING             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
LYNXVILLE          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  33   27   <5    6   <5   <5
MCGREGOR            16.0   20.0   23.0 :  78   49   27   18   <5    6
GUTTENBERG          15.0   18.0   21.0 :  67   46   26   12   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON             15.0   17.0   18.0 :  10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO           12.0   16.0   18.0 :   9    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                9.0   11.0   12.0 :  66   52   12   <5   <5   <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  40   40   13   15    6    6
GARBER              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  18   23   10   15    7    7
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DORCHESTER          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  20   21    6   <5   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA              9.0   10.0   11.0 :  50    7   25   <5   10   <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS          18.0   24.0   26.0 :  10   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER           14.0   18.0   20.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


*** CLIMATE INFORMATION ***

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...CLIMATE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
A GENERAL FLOW OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC STORMS TO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL
AND INTO MAY.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY ***

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING
WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO
2012. THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS VERY GENERAL. A MORE QUANTIFIED RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH WEB
GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.  FOR EXAMPLE...FOR THE CEDER RIVER AT AUSTIN...THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 9.8 FEET...AND A 25%
CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE 10.9 FEET.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE          11.7   11.9   12.7   14.1   15.7   17.8   18.9
BLK RVR FLS          45.9   47.1   48.3   51.2   53.6   55.2   58.1
GALESVILLE           10.8   11.9   12.5   13.4   14.0   14.4   15.1
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING              14.6   14.7   15.1   15.5   16.1   17.4   19.1
AUSTIN                8.0    8.2    8.8    9.8   10.9   14.0   16.7
CHARLES CTY           6.6    7.1    8.0    9.2   11.4   16.1   19.3
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN                7.6    8.0    8.8    9.4   10.6   14.6   17.6
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE              3.9    4.6    5.8    7.0    9.7   10.7   11.4
VIOLA                10.2   10.4   11.8   12.9   14.7   15.4   16.4
READSTOWN             5.7    6.8    8.2   10.4   12.0   12.7   13.6
SLDRS GROVE           8.0    9.3   10.4   12.1   13.4   14.3   15.7
GAYS MILLS            8.7    9.9   11.3   13.0   13.9   14.8   16.1
STEUBEN               8.4    9.4   10.6   11.7   12.6   13.3   14.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY            12.9   13.2   14.2   15.0   16.4   17.3   17.9
WABASHA              11.5   11.7   12.2   12.8   13.9   14.6   15.2
ALMA                  9.7   10.0   11.0   11.8   13.3   14.2   14.9
DAM 5               656.6  656.9  658.0  659.1  660.8  661.9  662.8
DAM 5A              652.1  652.4  653.6  654.7  656.7  657.7  658.6
WINONA               10.6   10.9   12.1   13.2   15.2   16.4   17.2
TREMPEALEAU         644.6  644.9  645.8  646.8  648.3  649.1  649.6
LA CRESCENT         638.3  638.7  639.6  640.6  642.1  642.8  643.3
LA CROSSE            10.0   10.4   11.2   12.0   13.1   13.7   14.0
GENOA               629.3  629.8  630.6  631.5  633.0  633.7  634.2
LANSING              11.0   11.4   12.2   13.8   15.5   16.1   16.9
LYNXVILLE           620.9  621.5  622.4  624.0  625.8  626.4  627.3
MCGREGOR             14.1   14.7   16.4   17.8   20.6   21.9   22.8
GUTTENBERG           12.9   13.4   14.8   16.0   18.1   19.2   19.9
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON               6.7    6.8    7.9    8.9   12.4   15.3   16.0
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO             3.7    3.8    4.4    5.1    7.9   12.0   16.6
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                 7.4    8.0    8.7    9.4   10.0   11.1   11.3
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER               8.3    8.5    9.3   11.0   13.2   17.7   20.9
GARBER                9.5   10.0   10.8   12.8   16.0   21.5   27.4
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH               3.6    3.8    4.4    5.5    7.3    9.1   10.2
DORCHESTER            9.1    9.4   10.1   11.4   13.7   15.8   17.2
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA               6.9    7.6    8.1    9.0   10.0   11.0   11.4
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS            7.7    8.4    9.5   10.7   12.7   18.3   20.1
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER             4.5    5.0    5.4    6.5    8.1   11.0   17.5

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE)

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED LONG TERM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN
LATE APRIL.

$$

WELVAERT



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