Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FGUS73 KARX 061445
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-212100-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
845 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

     ...SECOND SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE SECOND OF TWO PLANNED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION
AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS
OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES...INCLUDING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER /NCRFC/...UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
/MRCC/...AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/.

THE OUTLOOK THAT FOLLOWS BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT
BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE FIRST OUTLOOK ISSUED TWO
WEEKS AGO. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS WISCONSIN REMAINS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. BUT FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...THE
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

ONE ITEM OF CONCERN MOVING FORWARD INTO SPRING IS THE DEEP FROST
ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN AS THE SNOW MELTS AND RUNS OFF...THE FROST
WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE SOIL.
THEREFORE THE RISK FOR ENHANCED RUNOFF FROM SPRING RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGHER...AND THUS WE MAY SEE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING FROM
RAINFALL LATER THIS SPRING.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE AMOUNT AND
THICKNESS OF ICE IN AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE PROLONGED AND DEEP
COLD HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF ICE...AND THE ICE IS
THICKER THAN NORMAL. AS THIS ICE BREAKS UP...ICE JAMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL AREAS SUCH AS NEAR BRIDGES AND
OTHER CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER...OR WHERE THE RIVER MAKES SHARP
TURNS OR MEANDERS. LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE MOVING DOWNSTREAM COULD GET
HUNG UP IN THESE AREAS...LEADING TO JAMS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.

SO...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT ANY FLOODING WE EVENTUALLY SEE IN THE
COMING WEEKS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  THIS
INCLUDES THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW MELTS...AND ANY FUTURE RAIN
EVENTS. AND OF COURSE...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEKS THAT COULD ALTER THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL.


TABLE 1 BELOW DEPICTS THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE         18.0   20.0   22.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLK RVR FLS         47.0   51.0   55.0 :  90   63   55   29   13   <5
GALESVILLE          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  90   58   72   33    6   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING             18.0   20.0   22.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AUSTIN              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHARLES CTY         12.0   15.0   18.0 :  26   16   10    6   <5   <5
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN              10.5   12.0   14.0 :  29   16   21   10    9    9
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE            12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VIOLA               14.0   17.0   20.0 :  50   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
READSTOWN           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  60   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLDRS GROVE         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  40   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
GAYS MILLS          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  83   43   <5    7   <5   <5
STEUBEN             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  63   36   20   10   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  24   26    9    7   <5    6
WABASHA             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  84   56   15   18    9    6
ALMA                16.0   17.0   18.0 :   7    6   <5    6   <5   <5
DAM 5              660.0  662.0  665.0 :  30   29   13   13   <5    6
DAM 5A             656.0  659.0  661.0 :  29   26    9    6   <5    6
WINONA              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  53   44   21   23    9    6
TREMPEALEAU        647.0  649.0  651.0 :  43   33   13   16   <5    6
LA CRESCENT        641.0  643.0  645.0 :  38   33   12   12   <5    6
LA CROSSE           12.0   13.0   15.5 :  49   36   21   20   <5    6
GENOA              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  69   50   10   10   <5    6
LANSING             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  10    7   <5    6   <5   <5
LYNXVILLE          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  24   26    9    6   <5   <5
MCGREGOR            16.0   20.0   23.0 :  84   49   24   18   10    6
GUTTENBERG          15.0   18.0   21.0 :  78   47   21   10   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON             15.0   17.0   18.0 :   7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO           12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                9.0   11.0   12.0 : >95   60   26   <5   <5   <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  46   46   12   15   <5    6
GARBER              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  18   30   12   18    7    9
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DORCHESTER          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  38   35    7    6   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA              9.0   10.0   11.0 :  50    7   25   <5   10   <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS          18.0   24.0   26.0 :  23    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER           14.0   18.0   20.0 :  26   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


*** CLIMATE INFORMATION ***

SPRING AND VERY EARLY SUMMER 2013 WERE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI WATERSHED...AND THEN
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL AUTUMN PRECIPITATION HELPED EASE THE
DROUGHT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT WHILE THE DROUGHT EASED IN THOSE
AREAS...THE SOIL CONDITIONS WERE STILL PRETTY DRY HEADING INTO
WINTER...AS CHARACTERIZED BY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SPRING OF 2014...CLIMATE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY
DELAY THE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A GENERAL FLOW OF
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY AND INTO MARCH.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY ***

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING
WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO
2012. THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS VERY GENERAL. A MORE QUANTIFIED RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH WEB
GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED WAS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
BY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
DECEMBER FREEZE-UP. WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION. SNOW COVER IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERSHED...WITH SNOW WATER AMOUNTS
RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST IOWA. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO NEARLY
4 INCHES ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH 5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER CONTENT IN THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE ST. CROIX...CHIPPEWA...AND WISCONSIN RIVER BASINS.

DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
WINTER...THE GROUND HAS FROZEN DOWN TO 2-3 FEET ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND 3-4 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. FROST DEPTH AS LOW AS 5 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED RISK
OF SPRING FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE BLACK...
TREMPEALEAU...KICKAPOO...AND WISCONSIN RIVER BASINS. THE RISK IS
NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST IOWA BASINS SUCH AS THE CEDAR...UPPER
IOWA...AND TURKEY RIVERS. FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA RIVERS...AND THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THERE IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL RISK
OF MINOR FLOODING WITH A DIMINISHED RISK FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER
LEVEL FLOODING.


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.  FOR EXAMPLE...FOR THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE...THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 13.5 FEET...AND A 25%
CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE 14.2 FEET.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE          10.7   11.7   13.2   14.2   16.1   17.5   18.3
BLK RVR FLS          46.0   47.7   49.6   51.5   54.2   56.4   57.8
GALESVILLE           11.2   12.1   12.9   13.5   14.2   14.6   15.1
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING              14.0   14.3   14.8   15.5   16.1   17.1   18.3
AUSTIN                7.4    7.6    8.4    9.7   11.1   13.0   15.1
CHARLES CTY           7.0    7.4    8.2    9.5   12.4   15.6   16.9
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN                6.8    7.9    8.6    9.3   11.5   14.0   14.9
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE              6.2    6.6    7.3    8.6   10.2   10.7   11.1
VIOLA                12.3   12.4   13.2   14.1   14.9   15.3   15.7
READSTOWN             9.4    9.5   10.5   11.3   12.1   12.6   13.2
SLDRS GROVE          11.4   11.6   12.2   12.7   13.6   14.2   14.8
GAYS MILLS           12.4   12.5   13.1   13.5   14.1   14.7   15.6
STEUBEN              11.5   11.6   11.9   12.2   12.9   13.3   13.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY            12.7   13.6   14.3   15.2   16.1   18.3   19.3
WABASHA              11.4   11.9   12.3   12.9   13.6   15.6   16.6
ALMA                  9.5   10.4   11.2   12.0   12.9   15.3   16.4
DAM 5               656.4  657.3  658.2  659.3  660.2  663.2  664.4
DAM 5A              651.9  652.9  653.8  655.0  656.2  659.0  660.3
WINONA               10.4   11.4   12.3   13.5   14.6   17.7   18.9
TREMPEALEAU         644.5  645.3  646.0  646.9  647.8  649.9  650.7
LA CRESCENT         638.1  639.0  639.7  640.7  641.6  643.7  644.9
LA CROSSE             9.9   10.6   11.3   12.1   12.7   14.4   15.4
GENOA               629.2  630.0  630.7  631.5  632.5  634.8  635.9
LANSING              10.9   11.6   12.4   13.6   15.0   17.7   19.0
LYNXVILLE           620.9  621.7  622.6  623.8  625.3  628.1  629.6
MCGREGOR             14.5   14.8   17.2   18.6   20.2   23.4   24.4
GUTTENBERG           13.1   13.7   15.3   16.5   17.8   20.0   21.1
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON               7.6    8.8   10.2   11.0   13.4   14.7   15.4
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO             4.5    4.7    5.3    5.9    8.7    9.9   10.9
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                 9.2    9.3   10.0   10.6   11.1   11.5   11.7
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER               8.3    9.0    9.8   11.8   13.4   17.8   20.7
GARBER                9.9   10.5   11.6   13.4   16.2   21.2   27.3
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH               4.1    4.9    5.8    6.9    8.4    9.7   10.6
DORCHESTER            9.8   10.5   11.5   13.2   14.6   16.1   17.7
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA               6.9    7.6    8.1    9.0   10.0   11.0   11.4
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS           10.0   11.0   12.9   14.9   17.5   20.4   21.0
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER             5.5    6.8    9.2   11.4   14.7   16.2   17.4

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE)

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MARCH.

$$

WELVAERT



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