Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
819 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor...Moderate...and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
lower than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor...Moderate and Major Flooding...
                    Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS

--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wabasha             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  10   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
Alma Dam 4          16.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MN City Dam 5      660.0  662.0  665.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winona Dam 5A      656.0  659.0  661.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winona              13.0   15.0   18.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Trempealeau        647.0  649.0  651.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Crescent        641.0  643.0  645.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Crosse           12.0   13.0   15.5 :   7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Genoa              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lansing             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lynxville          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
McGregor            16.0   19.0   22.0 :  12    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Guttenberg          15.0   18.0   21.0 :   8    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls        18.0   24.0   26.0 :  12   10    6   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester           14.0   18.0   20.0 :  12    7    6   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
Houston             15.0   17.0   18.0 :  23   12    9   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro           12.0   16.0   18.0 :  20   12   10    5    6   <5
:Cedar River
Lansing             18.0   20.0   22.0 :   8    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Austin              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  12   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Osage               22.0   24.0   27.0 :  15   16   10    8   <5   <5
Charles City        12.0   15.0   18.0 :  20   19   15   14   10    7
:Turtle Creek
Austin              10.5   12.0   14.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turkey River
Elkader             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  45   37   22   17   11    7
Garber              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  37   28   28   16   17   12
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dorchester          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  22   21   13    9   10   <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia              8.0    9.0   10.0 :  16   18    6    6   <5   <5
Dodge                9.0   11.0   12.0 :  44   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black River
Neillsville         18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Black River Falls   47.0   51.0   55.0 :  22   18    9    7   <5   <5
Galesville          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  20   15   12    7   <5   <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge            12.0   13.0   14.0 :  10    7    8    6   <5   <5
Viola               14.0   16.0   18.0 :  19   20    8    8    5   <5
Readstown           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  20   25    7    7   <5   <5
Soldiers Grove      13.0   16.0   19.0 :  12   18    7    7   <5   <5
Gays Mills          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  22   33    8   10    6    6
Steuben             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  11   17    7    9   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda              9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Yellow River
Necedah             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  15   16    7    5   <5   <5


Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                              Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                 At Specific Locations
                          Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City             7.2    7.6    8.3   10.7   12.4   14.0   15.8
Wabasha               7.6    7.8    8.3    9.7   11.2   12.1   13.4
Alma Dam 4            5.1    5.4    6.0    7.7    9.2   10.8   12.6
MN City Dam 5       651.6  651.9  652.6  654.4  656.4  658.0  660.0
Winona Dam 5A       646.5  646.7  647.4  649.9  651.8  653.6  655.9
Winona                5.8    6.0    6.5    8.4   10.4   12.1   14.3
Trempealeau         640.5  640.7  641.3  642.8  644.3  645.9  647.6
La Crescent         632.9  633.1  634.4  635.9  638.2  639.6  641.1
La Crosse             5.6    5.8    6.5    7.8   10.1   11.5   12.8
Genoa               623.2  623.7  625.0  626.7  629.5  631.1  632.1
Lansing               8.3    8.4    8.6    9.2   11.2   12.7   14.1
Lynxville           615.7  616.0  617.0  618.5  621.2  623.0  624.3
McGregor              8.7    8.8    9.6   11.0   13.4   16.6   18.6
Guttenberg            7.0    7.3    8.7   10.1   12.2   14.6   16.3
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls          6.1    7.2    8.3   11.1   14.5   19.7   24.6
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester             3.6    4.1    5.0    7.0    9.0   15.1   18.4
:Root River
Houston               4.5    4.7    6.5    9.5   15.0   17.0   17.1
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro             2.6    2.9    3.7    5.7   10.5   15.9   18.8
:Cedar River
Lansing              10.4   11.1   13.1   14.1   15.6   17.8   18.3
Austin                4.1    4.8    6.5    7.6   10.0   15.6   16.8
Osage                15.5   15.8   17.1   18.1   20.7   23.9   25.8
Charles City          3.3    3.5    5.1    6.8   11.1   17.8   20.7
:Turtle Creek
Austin                2.0    2.1    3.2    5.7    8.1    9.5   11.0
:Turkey River
Elkader               7.1    7.5    8.8   10.7   14.9   20.5   21.6
Garber                8.5    9.2   11.3   13.9   20.9   25.2   28.8
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah               3.0    3.4    3.7    4.6    6.3    9.8   10.8
Dorchester            8.4    8.6    9.1   10.9   13.3   18.7   19.8
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia               3.5    4.0    5.2    6.1    7.3    8.7    9.3
Dodge                 5.5    5.9    7.4    8.5    9.7   10.5   10.9
:Black River
Neillsville           4.3    5.4    6.7    8.9   11.2   14.1   15.7
Black River Falls    37.3   38.4   39.9   43.6   46.6   50.5   54.1
Galesville            4.8    5.4    7.2    9.3   11.3   13.1   13.7
:Kickapoo River
La Farge              3.2    3.5    5.3    6.4    8.6   11.8   14.0
Viola                 8.5    8.9   10.9   12.1   13.5   15.1   18.1
Readstown             4.4    4.9    6.7    8.0   10.3   12.3   15.8
Soldiers Grove        6.4    6.8    8.9    9.9   11.6   13.6   18.4
Gays Mills            7.4    7.5    9.3   10.5   11.9   14.1   18.1
Steuben               7.0    7.2    8.5    9.5   10.5   12.0   14.9
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda               1.9    2.1    2.9    4.4    5.9    7.8    8.9
:Yellow River
Necedah              10.0   10.3   10.7   11.8   14.0   16.0   17.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 At Specific Locations
                          Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City             7.0    6.7    6.4    6.1    5.9    5.8    5.8
Wabasha               7.6    7.4    7.2    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.8
Alma Dam 4            5.1    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2
MN City Dam 5       651.5  651.4  651.2  651.1  651.1  651.0  651.0
Winona Dam 5A       646.3  646.0  645.9  645.7  645.6  645.6  645.5
Winona                5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
Trempealeau         640.3  640.0  639.8  639.6  639.4  639.3  639.3
La Crescent         632.5  632.1  631.7  631.4  631.3  631.3  631.3
La Crosse             5.4    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8
Genoa               622.6  622.2  621.5  621.0  620.8  620.7  620.6
Lansing               8.1    8.0    7.9    7.8    7.7    7.7    7.7
Lynxville           614.9  614.5  613.6  612.9  612.5  612.2  612.1
McGregor              8.4    8.2    8.0    7.6    7.4    7.2    7.2
Guttenberg            6.2    5.6    4.9    4.3    4.0    3.8    3.7
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls          5.6    5.6    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.1
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester             2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Root River
Houston               3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro             2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
:Cedar River
Lansing               9.4    9.3    9.3    9.2    9.2    9.2    9.2
Austin                3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
Osage                14.4   14.4   14.3   14.2   14.2   14.1   14.1
Charles City          2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Turtle Creek
Austin                1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.1
:Turkey River
Elkader               5.8    5.7    5.6    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3
Garber                6.5    6.3    6.2    6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0
:Upper Iowa River
Decorah               2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
Dorchester            7.2    7.2    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.9
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia               3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0
Dodge                 5.0    4.9    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4
:Black River
Neillsville           3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6
Black River Falls    35.9   35.9   35.8   35.7   35.6   35.6   35.6
Galesville            3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0
:Kickapoo River
La Farge              2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5
Viola                 7.2    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.7    6.7
Readstown             3.7    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3
Soldiers Grove        4.1    3.8    3.5    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.8
Gays Mills            6.3    6.1    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.3    5.3
Steuben               6.1    6.0    5.8    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.4
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda               1.2    1.0    0.8    0.6    0.5    0.3    0.2
:Yellow River
Necedah               9.5    9.5    9.5    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatologicial data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 and 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

All of this information is also available in graphical format
on the internet at:

http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse

The next outlook will be issued in late June.

$$



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