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000
FXUS63 KBIS 171141
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning parts of north central North Dakota
  into the James River Valley.

- Winds gusting to 45 mph over much of western North Dakota
  today into this evening. Winds gusting to 50 mph possible
  across western and central North Dakota Thursday.

- Chances for rain and/or snow today through Friday, mainly over
  northern half of the area (~30-60 percent chance). Greatest
  snow probability for an inch or more (40-60 percent chance)
  over the Turtle Mountains region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For early morning update, only change was to increase cloud
cover a bit over the west to address some low clouds dropping
southeast through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Current surface analysis places low over the upper Midwest, with
secondary low over southeast Saskatchewan/southwest Manitoba.
Upper level analysis shows similar layout, with lows over
southern Minnesota and over southwest Saskatchewan. Over our
neck of the woods, broad area of showers has now shifted well
into eastern North Dakota, with only a little rain lingering
over the eastern edge of our far southeastern counties. With the
rain departing, some patchy fog has formed from the Turtle
Mountains southward into the James River Valley per latest
observations.

For today, Saskatchewan upper low gradually moves east and
becomes the primary feature over our area. This may result in
isolated/scattered rain showers developing in the cyclonic flow
over our area. A little snow may mix in over the west as cooler
air pulls into the system. In the meantime, surface low moves
over southern Manitoba, with pressure gradient tightening over
our area, particularly over western locations. Sounding analysis
indicates some stronger winds (~40 kts) mixing down over the
west, which may be amplified by the possible showers. Given the
wind concerns, have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for
much of western North Dakota from mid-day into early evening.

Upper low and affiliated surface low continue to slowly meander
to the east tonight into Thursday, with cooler air wrapping into
the system converting precipitation from rain to snow tonight.
Snow chances continue primarily over the northern half of the
state, greatest chances along the International Border around
the Turtle Mountains into Thursday evening. Any accumulations
should be rather light, though the exception may be the Turtle
Mountains area where latest NBM guidance is showing generally a
40 to 60 percent chance of seeing an inch or more of snow, 30 to
50 percent chance for two or more inches.

The next concern for Thursday is winds given the tight gradient
behind the low and potential for stronger winds mixing down.
Latest sounding analysis shows that gusts to 50 mph can not be
ruled out over most of the area.

On Friday system departs, but a slight chance of snow remains
through the day over parts of the area on the tail end of the
system. Drier weather returns for the weekend, with temperatures
returning to a bit above average by Sunday. Overall it looks
like temperatures remain near to a little above average going
into the upcoming work week. A fast moving compact low brings
some light rain chances Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas of MVFR ceilings remain over parts of the area this
morning with most locations improving to VFR this afternoon. A
return to MVFR ceilings is possible tonight, mainly over
northern portions of the area. Gusty northwest winds develop
today, remaining gusty into the evening. The strongest winds are
expected over western North Dakota with gusts to 45 mph this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS