568
FXUS63 KBIS 072354
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
654 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers are expected to continue across western and northern
  North Dakota this evening, with isolated to scattered showers
  south central into the James River Valley.

- Gusty westerly winds continue along and south of Highway 12 in
  far southwest North Dakota early this evening, though will
  diminish as the evening goes on.

- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the
  end of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Deep low now centered to the north and a little west of Bismarck
as of this writing, with rain showers continuing to circulate
around it. Heaviest showers at this time remain over western and
far northern portions of the state, more scattered over central
North Dakota. We did have a period late this afternoon/early
evening where the SPC non-supercell tornado parameter was
elevated over parts of south central and southwest North Dakota,
and we did receive a report and video of a funnel cloud near
Dodge, but it never reached the ground. As the evening continues
on, the threat will continue to diminish given the low level
lapse rates/instability will be on the decrease as we cool. For
early evening update, main change was to adjust shower coverage
with current trends. Also, winds do remain quite gusty over the
far southwest at Bowman and Hettinger, so will let the wind
advisory continue until expiration in a couple hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central
North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low
pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder
of the day today before retrograding back to the south. Very
windy conditions that are presently occurring in the far
southwest should diminish quickly this evening.

Showers will persist over much of western through central North
Dakota, especially in the west and north. A line of
thunderstorms is trying to develop mainly along and north of
Highway 200. However, with mostly cloudy skies through the day,
instability will remain limited. Therefore, the threat of
severe weather remains low as any hail will likely remain
smaller than quarter size. That said, with relatively cold air
aloft, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if a few cold air
funnels don`t develop near the low this afternoon, while a
landspout or two isn`t entirely out of the question either.

Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to
the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. As a result,
isolated to scattered wrap-around rain showers will persist
through Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Beyond that,
expect a west to east tilted ridge to traverse over the
Northern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. This will lead
to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the end of the workweek
through early next week. That said, weak shortwave energy
flattening the ridge could provide light rain over the far
eastern forecast area Friday afternoon, although no mentionable
PoPs are present in the forecast at this time. Breezy to windy
conditions are also expected Friday.

By this weekend, temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid
70s across most of the forecast area. These are seasonably warm
highs that are around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time
of year. Lows look to remain mostly in the 40s, which is near-
average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Numerous to scattered rain showers continue over the area, with
most of the rain showers over western and northern portions of
North Dakota. This will result in areas of decreased visibility,
possibly down to IFR levels for brief periods of time.
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected tonight into
Wednesday over western and northern North Dakota including the
KXWA, KDIK, and KMOT terminals. Over south central North Dakota
including the KBIS terminal, a period of MVFR ceilings will be
possible late tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are
expected at KJMS, though a heavier shower could cause a brief
period of MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS