Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon and into tomorrow.
Southwesterly winds are gusting up to 20 mph today and temperatures
reside in the 60s across the area. Many areas will likely reach the
low to mid 70s for highs this afternoon. Temps will drop down in the
40s to low 50s tonight, although winds will remain elevated at 10-15
mph overnight.

We should warm up back to the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday afternoon,
although increased cloud cover, especially in western areas, may
hold down temps by a couple degrees. Wind gusts will increase by
tomorrow afternoon, with gusts of 30-40 mph possible by the evening
and continuing into the overnight in advance of a cold front. A Wind
Advisory will be in effect for most of Central Alabama from Monday
afternoon until Tuesday morning.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

Key Messages:

- A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move into
Central Alabama Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
which could pose a threat for localized flooding, mainly for areas
west of I-65, where 2-3" of rain is currently forecast.

- Severe weather threats are low at this time and generally limited
to our southwest counties for a few hours early Tuesday morning,
then tapering off across our far southern counties throughout
Tuesday morning.

- Strong non-thunderstorm (gradient) wind gusts of 35-45 mph are
forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wind Advisory in effect.

A strong area of (mainly linear) convection is forecast to move into
Alabama Monday night into early Tuesday morning, ahead of a SSW to
NNW oriented cold front. This MCS is associated with a shortwave
perturbation rotating through a broad trough across the central
CONUS. While an occluded low pressure will be situated near Iowa at
this time, a stout low-level jet (LLJ) is progged across the
Southeast/Gulf Coast with 850 mb winds of 60-70 kts, and 925 mb
winds of 40-50 kts. This will coincide with a 8-10 mb pressure
gradient across Central Alabama, ahead of the MCS. As such, surface
wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast Monday night into Tuesday
morning, a continuation of gusty winds from Monday afternoon. A,
expanded Wind Advisory will be issued for this.

The main impact from convection is locally heavy rainfall. Latest
QPF situates 2-3" of rain generally west of I-65. Localized flooding
is possible in low-lying or poor drainage areas, particularly if
some storm-scale bands/higher rainfall rates can orient more
parallel to deep-layer flow. The weakening nature of the MCS Tuesday
morning has led to a decreasing confidence for flooding across the
remainder of Central Alabama. Furthermore, the system is forecast to
remain displaced from favorable surface-based instability to support
a meaningful wind or tornado threat early Tuesday morning. Most
guidance continues to depict the warm sector pinching/tapering off
by the early morning, and it certainly appears this will be a system
dominated by kinematics. It`s not uncommon to see gradient wind
gusts being the dominant hazard in a scenario like this.

The decaying MCS will progress eastward Tuesday morning and should
be exiting our forecast area during the afternoon. A cooler, drier
airmass will move in thereafter along with clearing skies.

A broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to position across
the central CONUS Wednesday morning with southwesterly flow aloft
nearing the East Coast. This trough will eventually exit the eastern
CONUS on Friday as high pressure centers near the Southeast by then.
As such, stable conditions are forecast Wednesday through the end of
the period with developing ridge and noticeable warming trend
in the region Friday through Sunday.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

Skies are partly cloudy today, with all sites remaining VFR this
afternoon and evening. Only passing high clouds are expected through
tonight, although ceilings may begin to drop by Monday morning
(remaining VFR). Sfc winds will be southeasterly at 8-12 kts this
afternoon, remaining fairly steady through the overnight.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in the region today with 20 ft winds becoming easterly
to southeasterly at 5-10 mph this afternoon. Minimum RH values in
the 25-40% range are forecast. Moisture recovers tomorrow with
wetting rains forecast Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     44  68  55  67 /   0   0  70  90
Anniston    45  68  56  67 /   0   0  60  90
Birmingham  48  69  58  70 /   0   0  80  90
Tuscaloosa  50  71  59  73 /   0  10  90  80
Calera      48  69  59  70 /   0  10  70  90
Auburn      45  68  57  68 /   0   0  30  90
Montgomery  49  73  62  71 /   0   0  40  90
Troy        49  75  61  72 /   0   0  20  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-
Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lowndes-
Montgomery-Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...12


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