Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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252 FXUS64 KBMX 020525 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of Tonight) Issued at 1055 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024 Tonight`s temperatures were in fairly decent shape. There was only some very isolated convection across S AL earlier which has dissipated. While some patchy river fog is possible tonight, the best low level moisture looks to be across the far SRN part of the state. Lows overall will be similar in range to last night. The lowest values tonight should be in the NE counties where NE flow has allowed some lower dew points to filter into the area. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 103 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024 A very tranquil and warm spring day is upon us over Central Alabama, with plenty of dry air aloft that will prevent much if any convective development. We do have some moisture in the very low levels, with dewpoints observed in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Fair weather cumulus has developed areawide as a result, but that`s just about it in terms of the weather expected through the rest of the afternoon. The forecast is currently on track to reach the mid to upper 80s for highs areawide. Clear and calm conditions are expected again tonight with mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Patchy fog will be possible along the major river basins and larger lakes. Thursday will feel more like summer instead of spring, as highs are expected to reach close to the 90 degree mark. Also similar to a summer-like pattern, a few isolated convective showers and storms will be possible as a low-level boundary pushes northeastward as southerly flow develops at the surface. Most locations will remain dry, but we`ll be watching shower and storm development off to our west as an upper level shortwave trough moves across the ArkLaMiss by Thursday evening. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024 No significant changes needed in the forecast Thursday night through early next week. Only minor adjustments to the rain/thunderstorm chances over the weekend, but the overall reasoning described below remains the same. 25/Owen Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024 West-southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday night through Friday night between ridging over the Gulf and East Coast and troughing over the Plains and Western CONUS. Several shortwaves will be embedded in this flow emanating from Plains convection. A subtropical impulse will help initiate an MCS over Texas later today. While the MCS is expected to dissipate on Thursday before reaching Alabama due to a dry/stable air mass, its MCV and increased mid-level moisture along with a weak LLJ should result in some patches of light rain and showers for at least the northwest counties Thursday night. Moisture continues to increase Friday and Friday night with continued weak shortwaves and the left exit region of a subtropical jet streak nosing in. This should support scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms during this period into Saturday morning, highest chances north where heights will be lower. Bulk shear will be weak so not expecting anything severe with this activity. Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen across the Central CONUS ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated warm air aloft/capping increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 Mostly VFR conds thru the period with minimal cloud cover and only isolated TSRA during the afternoon hours. Fog may produce vsbys 3-5 miles between 10Z and 13Z at KTOI. Light and vrbl winds thru 14Z becoming southeast 5-7 kts. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain free conditions today with RH values dropping into the 30s. 20 foot winds will be from north around 3-6 mph. Min RHs will be in the 30s again on Thursday, though isolated showers may develop during peak heating. Good overnight recoveries are expected each night. 20 foot winds will be from south around 5-7 mph. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 62 83 62 / 10 20 50 70 Anniston 88 64 83 64 / 20 20 30 60 Birmingham 88 66 83 65 / 20 30 40 60 Tuscaloosa 88 66 84 64 / 20 30 50 60 Calera 87 66 83 65 / 20 20 30 50 Auburn 87 66 83 65 / 20 20 20 40 Montgomery 89 65 87 65 / 20 20 20 30 Troy 88 63 87 65 / 20 20 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...58/rose