Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 261804
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1204 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers in the mountains Today through early
  Wednesday. Across the plains there will be a chance of afternoon
  and early evening snow showers.

- Drier conditions return for Thursday through Saturday with warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A few snow showers are being observations in the mountains this
morning otherwise, mainly dry. Satellite shows cumulus clouds
already developing across the cloudless portions of the mountains
this morning with building instability. Expect this to continue
into the afternoon with instability and moisture building to
support an increasing in snow showers across the mountains. By
late afternoon, showers spread eastward into the foothills and
parts of the adjacent plains with very scattered coverage.
Adjusted precip. probabilities to better reflect latest high-
resolution guidance. Expect light accumulations in the mountains
with at most a trace for adjacent plains. Made some minor
adjustments to highs for today. Temperatures are already warmer
than yesterdays highs, but are still slowly recovering from the
chilly lows this morning. With increasing cloud cover/showers this
afternoon it will be harder for temperatures to really rebound.
Kept highs closer to 40 across the lower elevations as result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

NW flow aloft will be in place today thru tonight. Moisture
embedded in the flow will combine with decent lapse rates and
favorably orographic flow, to produce periods of snow showers in
the mtns. Overall amounts will stay below advisory criteria in
most areas of the mtns.

At lower elevations, there will be a chc of snow showers this
aftn into the early evening hours due to favorable lapse rates.
Highs across the plains will be in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Warm advection aloft and subsidence will bring clearing on
Wednesday, though there may still be some light showers over the
higher mountains. There is stronger warm advection Wednesday night
into Thursday, and there may be a brief mountain wave over the
Front Range as the resulting inversion passes over, but the flow
is marginal and this doesn`t look like a high wind event, but
mainly affecting the middle and upper slopes. It will likely be
warmer with a little breeze near the lower foothills though.

A weak ridge axis passes on Thursday, with moisture beginning to
return to the mountains. Light orographic snow should resume, and
could be briefly heavier as a little wave passes in the Park
Range Thursday night where the southwest flow is more favorable.
This weak front aloft lifts mainly north of Colorado for Friday
through the weekend, putting Colorado under drier, warm air aloft.

There`s a little frontal surge into eastern Colorado Thursday
night/early Friday as that wave passes that may hold surface
temperatures steady, but then it will be warmer over the weekend.

There`s a bit of a trend in the 00z models towards a bit faster
movement and more phasing between northern and southern streams as
the larger trough moves east into early next week. However, a
majority of ensemble members are slower with the southwest low`s
motion and most notably stronger with the ridging over the
weekend. Guidance temperatures for lower elevations range from the 60s
into the mid 70s. We favor the warmer edge of the temperature
range for the weekend, with at least one day and maybe both days
over 70 in Denver. There`s decent agreement on some light
precipitation making its way from the mountains onto the plains,
either Monday or Tuesday depending on the phasing/timing. If this
trough is organized just right, there could be a period of
moderate upslope rain or rain changing to snow with an impactful
foothills snow, but that would require several things working
together that might not be. In any event, it will be a system that
is moving which will limit the duration of precipitation,
probably 12-18 hours, and temperatures will be pretty warm for any
lower elevation impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1203 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Light northeasterlies early this afternoon. The main challenge for
this afternoon will be winds. Snow showers will spill from the
higher terrain onto the plains in the 21-01Z timeframe. Drier air
at the surface will make for high-based showers around the
terminals and also periods of erratic winds when showers are
nearby. A period of light northery component winds will accompany
the shower activity. Ceilings around 080 are possible. Light,
variable winds eventually transition to drainage around midnight
(05-07Z). Ceilings gradually scatter out overnight. Wednesday,
light WSW/SW winds turn NW in the 17-18Z timeframe at 6-8 kts.
There is a low chance for a shower in the vicinity of the
terminals in the afternoon, but it will likely be too dry to
support anything.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mensch
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Mensch


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