Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
283
FNUS71 KBOX 100801
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Herman Covey WMA Woodlands Rx Burn...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
401 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers are likely through about 7-9 am, then dry
conditions thereafter as area of showers shift to the south.
Drier air will move in from the north today with minimum RH
values dropping to 40 to 45 percent in the afternoon. ENE winds
will average 10 to 15 mph today.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in
the morning, then slight chance of rain showers
early.
CWR.................11 percent decreasing to 0 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Dewpoint............41 decreasing to 37 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...59.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 8 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (79200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 increasing to 25 early in the morning, then
increasing to 39 to 47 early increasing to 59
to 66 increasing to 69 decreasing to 49 to 54
early in the afternoon increasing to 66 to 68.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......3.0 decreasing to 2.5 early in the morning,
then decreasing to 2.0 early increasing to 2.5
increasing to 4.0.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93 91 89 86 84 81 79 78 76 78 80 82
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
Temp............47 47 48 50 51 54 56 58 59 59 58 57
Dewpoint........42 42 43 42 41 40 38 38 37 37 36 36
RH..............83 83 83 74 68 59 51 47 44 44 44 45
Heat index (F)..44 44 44 47 51 54 56 58 59 59 58 57
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 14
Surface wnd dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Surface wnd spd.8 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 10 10 10
Surface wnd gst.13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.0
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.9 10 14 15 16 17 17 16 17 16 16 16
LVORI...........4 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............9 25 39 47 59 66 69 49 54 68 66 67
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 18 29 38 53 64 69 69 79 73 70 70
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
Ceiling (kft)...3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 6 to 7 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 6 to 7 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 14 mph shifting to the northeast 7 to
8 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (39900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................47 decreasing to 5 to 13.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......5.0 increasing to 13.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........81 80 79 71 57 46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............55 50 47 44 42 41
Dewpoint........35 35 35 35 35 36
RH..............47 56 63 70 76 82
Heat index (F)..55 47 44 41 39 37
20 ft wind......E 10 E 10 E 8 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6
20 ft wind gust.14 14 12 10 10 10
Surface wind....E 10 E 10 E 8 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6
Surface wnd gst.14 14 12 10 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....3300 1800 900 500 500 400
Transport wind..E 14 E 12 E 9 E 7 NE 8 NE 8
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 4
ADI.............47 13 8 5 5 5
Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..40 18 8 3 4 3
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...5.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 13 13
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
east around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph shifting to the
east around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 15 mph shifting to the east late
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (61600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 to 13 increasing to 44 early, then increasing
to 68 to 76 late in the morning decreasing to
50 to 55 early decreasing to 38 to 45.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......13 decreasing to 7.0 early, then decreasing to
5.0 late in the afternoon increasing to 6.0
late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........40 43 58 70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Temp............40 52 58 59
Dewpoint........35 37 37 37
RH..............82 56 45 44
Heat index (F)..36 52 58 59
20 FT wind......NE 6G12 NE 8G14 NE 10G14 E 10G13
Surface wind....NE 6G12 NE 8G14 NE 10G14 E 10G13
Mix hgt (ft)....500 3800 5600 5000
Transport wind..NE 9 NE 15 NE 12 E 10
LVORI...........4 1 1 1
ADI.............9 68 50 43
Haines index....4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 49 56 45
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR
Ceiling (kft)...13 15 7.0 5.0
$$
Forecaster...KJC
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413674.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov