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000
FXUS64 KBRO 121737
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through Saturday allowing
temperatures to remain near normal. Surface high pressure across the
western Gulf of Mexico this morning will slide eastward through the
short term. This will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen and
bring moderate to breezy southeast winds across the area today and
Saturday. Mostly sunny skies with comfortable conditions are
expected for today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Mild
conditions are expected tonight with higher but still comfortable
humidity levels. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s across much
of Deep South Texas, except for the low 70s along the coast. Partly
sunny skies on Saturday with highs ranging from the 70s at the coast
to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere, a few locations could reach 90
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.

A low risk for rip currents will exist through tonight then becoming
a moderate risk on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be under the
influence of high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere
throughout the period. This will produce dry weather across the
BRO CWFA with no chance of rain. Meanwhile, at the surface, the
pressure gradient will intensify, leading to breezy to windy
conditions. In fact, the strength of the wind may reach WIND
ADVISORY criteria Monday into Monday night, with the most likely
counties in the WIND ADVISORY being Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy.

Temperature-wise, a gradual increase in daytime highs and
overnight lows is anticipated. The hottest highs are forecast to
be on Tuesday, as a weak cold front intrudes into the CRP CWFA and
produces a downsloping effect off of the neighboring high terrain
of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Situation continues to be a wind forecast through midday Saturday,
which will make takeoffs and landings a bit tricky due to
enhancement from late morning through afternoon thermals both
today and again on Saturday.

Winds have already picked up to 17+ knots this afternoon with
gusts at or above 23 knots at times...direction from the east-
southeast...and expect the usual east to west decrease through mid
evening. Speeds will remain near 10 knots overnight so no fog/mist
expected. Gradient continues to tighten on Saturday and direction
will veer toward the more traditional southeast (i.e. 150 degrees)
as surface ridge nudges farther east into the Gulf...a quicker
rise by mid morning toward 20 knots which will become likely after
1 PM Saturday.

As for clouds...patchy cirrus will be the rule through mid morning
Saturday. Introduced few-scattered low VFR cumulus by 10 AM
Saturday due to increasing (but well mixed) low level
moisture...but with plenty of mid level dry air mixing down not
expecting a broken sky on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Generally favorable conditions are expected today into tonight
with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Moderate to
breezy southeast winds will develop on Saturday as the pressure
gradient strengthens. Exercise Caution conditions will be likely
and low-end Small Craft Advisories will be possible on Saturday,
especially on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters (0-20
nm).

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during a
majority of the period courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient
over the western Gulf of Mexico. The most adverse winds and seas
are anticipated to be from Monday through Wednesday. Conditions
will begin to improve on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast models continue to indicate relative humidity (RH) values
will fall below 30 percent this afternoon with 20ft winds increasing
out of the southeast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Therefore, a Fire
Weather Danger Statement has been issued across much of Deep South
Texas for today, except near the coast. Relative humidity (RH)
values will recover on Saturday as low-level moisture continues to
increase across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  67  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               84  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 86  65  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         87  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  70  75  72 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  66  80  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION Update...52-Goldsmith