Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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027-022015-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
304 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
This is the third flood outlook for the 2024 winter/spring flood
season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up/formation of river ice
across northern and central Vermont and northern New York. This
outlook is valid for the two week period of February 1-15, 2024.

...Overview...
The potential for open water flooding through the middle of
February is below normal for the next week, and near normal for
our entire forecast area for the two week period as a whole. Only
nominal amounts of river ice are present, and mainly across far
northern watersheds, leading to a below normal threat for ice jams.

The overall weather pattern in January was one of milder than
normal temperatures and generally above normal precipitation.
Positive temperature departures from 5 to 8 degrees were noted
across the region during the 31-day period, with much of this
driven by very mild overnight low temperatures due to persistent
cloudiness. Positive precipitation departures ranged in general
from 1 to 2 inches across Vermont, though near normal values were
observed in portions of northern New York, most notably in the St.
Lawrence Valley. Along with these trends, snowfall totals were
overall closer to normal across the area compared to the long term
30 year mean. For example, January`s snow total in Burlington, VT
was 19.9 inches, or approximately within an inch of normal (21.1
inches).

The following is a summary of the conditions by region as of
Thursday morning, February 1, 2024:

...St Lawrence Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal week 1, near normal week 2
.Snow Cover...Below normal, 2 to 5 inches
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, 1 inch or less
.Streamflows...Near normal, 25th-75th percentile
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Near normal, 25th-75th percentile
.River Ice...Some thin ice noted, but generally below normal thickness

...Northern Adirondacks...
.Flood Risk...Below normal week 1, near normal week 2
.Snow Cover...Below normal, ranging from 8 to 18 inches, with
              2-3+ ft in the High Peaks above 3,000 feet where values
              are closer to normal.
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, 1 to 4 inches, with 5+ inches
                    in the High Peaks above 3,000 feet where values
                    are closer to normal.
.Streamflows...Above to much above normal, 76 to 90th percentile
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal, 75th to 90th percentile
.River Ice...Some thin ice noted, but below normal thickness

...Champlain Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal week 1, near normal week 2
.Snow Cover...Below normal, trace to 3 inches
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, less than 1 inch
.Streamflows...Above normal, 75 to 90th percentile or higher
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Well above normal, > 90th percentile
.River Ice...Minimal coverage

...Green Mountains...
.Flood Risk...Below normal week 1, near normal week 2
.Snow Cover...Near to slightly below normal in mid-terrain, ranging
              from 8 to 18 inches, with 2-3+ feet above 3,000 feet
              where values are closer to normal.
.Water Equivalent...Near to slightly below normal in mid-terrain,
                    ranging from 1 to 4 inches, with 5+ inches above
                    3,000 feet where values are closer to normal.
.Streamflows...Near to above normal, 50th to 90th percentile
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal, 75th to >90th percentile
.River Ice...Patchy ice cover, with highest coverage north.

...Connecticut River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal week 1, near normal week 2
.Snow Cover...Below normal, 4 to 8 inches
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, 2 inches or less
.Streamflows...Above normal, 76 to 90th percentile or higher
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal, 75th to >90th percentile
.River Ice...Minimal coverage

..Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...
A persistently active weather pattern in January kept regular
precipitation falling across the region. However, due to very mild
temperatures, a significant percentage of this fell as mixed
precipitation or all rain, especially in the middle and lower
elevations. As such, snow depths are largely below normal in all
areas outside the highest elevations where values are closer to
normal. For example, Burlington, VT had only a trace of snow on the
ground on February 1. Snow water equivalents exhibit similar
characteristics with below normal values in the valleys and
mid-terrain, with somewhat closer to normal values in the higher
summit regions.

...River and River Ice Conditions...
Daily and multi-day averaged streamflows remain at or well above
normal across the entire region. This is indicative of residual
interflow and runoff from December`s excessive precipitation with
only a slight downward trend in levels over the past two weeks.

Only patchy ice has formed across the region over the past few weeks,
with the most intact coverage located across far northern watersheds
as confirmed by NWS Burlington river ice surveys during the last week
of January. Where ice cover is more persistent, such as on the
Missisquoi River, ice thickness is quite thin and generally six inches
or less. Some minor river ice movement was noted across northern
New York in the past few weeks as well, with a minor ice jam on the
St. Regis River in Brasher Falls creating a brief flood threat for
a few homes in that area on January 21. However, no other problematic
areas exist due to ice jams, and none are forecast.

...Soil Moisture and Groundwater Conditions...
Very moist wet soil moisture conditions have persisted across the
region over the past two weeks, with latest CPC data supporting
mean values in the 70th to 90th percentile range. This is supported
by the latest groundwater data from the United States Geological
Survey showing most values in the 75th to >90th percentile
in all areas except the St. Lawrence Valley where values are
slightly lower.

...Weather Outlook...
A fairly benign and quiet weather pattern is expected over the
next week to 10 days, with some greater uncertainty thereafter.
In general, high pressure with minimal precipitation and mild
temperatures are expected. The official National Weather Service
6 to 10 day outlook concurs with this thinking, calling for above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. As such, this
period is being characterized with a below normal flood threat.
In the longer term, more uncertainty arises with the future storm
track and given this idea, the overall two-week period as a whole
will have a near normal open water flood threat.

...Summary...
Based on the above meteorological and hydrological information,
the potential for open water flooding over the next 2 weeks is
below normal over the next week to ten days, and near normal
thereafter, giving an overall two-week outlook of a near normal
flood threat. With little in the way of ice cover, the threat of
river flooding due to ice jams is below normal. Despite the
expected quiet weather pattern in the next week to 10 days, some
uncertainty exists in the future storm track toward the middle of
February.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have little or
no snow on the ground.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NWS Burlington
service area is available online at:

www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by
NWS Burlington on Thursday, February 1, 2024.

For access to current weather conditions and forecasts, please
visit our web site at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$

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