915
FXUS62 KCAE 010536
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough aloft will push through the area Tuesday and
bring scattered showers-storms in the afternoon and evening.
Expect drier, warmer weather for Thursday and Friday with highs
back in the mid to upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase for the weekend as low level moisture increases. There
will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the long term with above normal temperatures
favored.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Last of the convection has moved south and east of the CWA.
Folks can still probably see a little lightning if they look to
the southeast, but that should be winding down shortly.

Will still have some patchy showers that should linger around
overnight as the upper disturbance passes across, but they
won`t drop much in the way of precipitation. Temperatures will
gradually cool overnight to lows within a few degrees of 60 by
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will build into the Southeast on
Wednesday. Drier air will also move into the area from the west
with PWAT values around 1 inch. Expect isolated to scattered
showers along the coastal plain and into the eastern Midlands
where low level moisture is higher. The severe weather threat is
low given the dry air aloft hindering growth and warmer temps
aloft. A downslope component to the wind fields will help push
temps back above average, in the mid to upper 80s.

As we move into Thursday, broad ridging will deepen across the
SE CONUS and the ridge axis will set up nearly directly
overhead. So while the dry northwest flow will weaken, general
subsidence will continue and skies will remain mostly clear
again Thursday. Thursday`s highs will be in the mid to upper
80s. As surface high pressure strengthens offshore, surface
winds will turn more out of the east in the afternoon and allow
dew points to push back into the 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The WPC cluster analysis page shows that most ensemble members
keep broad ridging in place through the long term, however not
as amplified as Thursday and Friday. This will open up the
synoptic pattern to a series of weak shortwaves sliding to our
northwest starting this weekend through the end of the period.
Ensembles generally favor an increase in atmospheric moisture
over the weekend with PWAT values around the 90th percentile.
This pattern of shortwaves riding over broad ridging and above
normal PWATs favor at least a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day of the long term with highest PoPs over
the weekend when atmospheric moisture is expected to be highest.
Thunderstorms in general will be favored during the afternoon
hours but could fall outside the typical diurnal period if
shortwave troughs cross the region outside of peak heating.
Above average temperatures are likely through much of the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR/IFR conditions expected early this morning as fog and
stratus develops across the region.

Upper level trough moving east of the area early this morning.
Satellite showing some clearing upstream to the west behind the
trough. This clearing aloft will spread across the region
overnight. With low level moisture in place and near calm winds,
expect widespread fog/stratus to develop. Confidence is
relatively high with satellite guidance suggesting a high
probability of restrictions along with the latest lamp/HRRR. Low
clouds and fog should lift by 14z-15z with scattered cumulus.
Winds will shift to northwest to north behind the trough less
than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some late night/early morning fog/
stratus possible. Increasing moisture, some upper energy, and a
surface boundary expected to provide a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, Fri thru Sun.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$