167
FXUS62 KCAE 270010
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair Saturday through Monday with a gradual warming trend. A
weak front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and
eastern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure continues to ridge into the forecast area with an
upper ridge axis shifting in from the west. While some mid-level
clouds remain in place over the area, isolated rain showers,
mainly in North Carolina will continue to dissipate over the
next several hours. As a result, expect dry conditions through
the rest of the night. Low temperatures once again expected near
seasonal average in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the region through the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be
centered off the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast coast. This high is
anticipated to weaken and drift south. The combination of
ridging aloft and surface high centered to our east is expected
to lead to fair weather over the weekend and start a gradual
warming trend. Some guidance is showing a subtle boundary
working its way around the surface high, which can mainly be
seen in brief lowering of PWATS behind it. This feature could
bring showers near the area Sunday afternoon, but it looks like
any shower activity will remain offshore. That said, the Euro
and GEFS ensembles are showing a low chance (~10-20%) for
precipitation associated with this, mainly in the CSRA. In
contrast, the NBM is showing 0% chance of rain on Sunday.
Forecast soundings indicate there would need to be some sort of
forcing strong enough to provide enough lift to get showers in
the area, which I`m not confident the boundary will be.
Therefore, have decided to keep PoPs below 10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place to
start the work week, allowing for a warming trend to continue as
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. A shortwave and
associated frontal boundary are forecast to move through the
region around midweek, bringing a slight chance of showers and
an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the potential showers, warm
temperatures are anticipated to continue. A deeper trough
approaches the area toward the end of the long term period,
which looks to give us a better chance of more widespread
rainfall late next week into the weekend. That said, it`s still
several days away so confidence is on the lower side still.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Plenty of mid and upper level cloudiness moving through the
region this evening. In addition, some smoke is also being
indicted across the Midlands, which may reduce visibilities to
mvfr the next few hours. Low-level easterly winds will continue
overnight. Guidance has backed off mvfr ceiling formation late
tonight, and have trended that direction, keeping mostly vfr
ceilings across all taf locations. Did bring some scattered
clouds around 1500 ft late tonight with Atlantic moisture still
moving inland. Low-level jet should keep good mixing just off
the surface, helping to inhibit fog formation and low stratus.
Vfr should continue Saturday. Winds remain easterly through the
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog or stratus
development will remain possible through the period. Slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday on.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$