333
FXUS61 KCAR 052248
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
648 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave crosses the area tonight and Monday.Weak high
pressure builds in late Monday night through Tuesday night. A
frontal boundary stalls out to the south with waves of low
pressure riding along it Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
645pm update...No changes. Warm frontal rain is moving through
the area this evening as expected. Still expect some coastal fog
to develop tonight into Monday morning. The cold front will
cross from north to south during the morning. Weak cold
advection and a deep mixed layer on Monday will produce the
warmest day of the year for inland locations.

Previous discussion...
An area of weak shortwave energy will cross into the region
this evening and tonight. High-res models continue to do well
with the progression of the rain showers on the front edge of
the system. By the evening, the entire region will receive rain,
though light with some embedded convection. With the warm
airmass, onshore flow, and moist boundary layer, patchy fog will
develop across the region. Due to the increased onshore flow
earlier in the night, areas to possible dense fog will develop
along the coast.

By Monday, the upper level ridge exits over the waters and a
weak upper level trof moves in. This will help to quickly push
the rest of the shortwave out of the region. High-res CAMS and
QPF models show some lingering isolated showers Monday morning,
but clearing by the afternoon with the clearing clouds. In
addition, winds will shift to SW to W, becoming breezy by the
afternoon. The 925-850mb model times show a strong influx of
warm advection with the exiting system and approaching high
pressure. Thus, temps are expected to be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will be most of the way thru the CWA Monday night with
skies clearing from north to south. Mins will remain above normal
before colder air starts to take hold in the morning. Skies will
slowly clear from north to south, though cannot rule out some
stratocu developing Tuesday afternoon with nw flow. With mixing up
to 800mb possible expect winds to 25-30mph likely to mix down in the
afternoon. Temps during the day will be cooler than Monday, though
still above seasonal norms.

A reinforcing shot of cold air looks to move in Tuesday night with
secondary cold front clearing the coast around 09z Wednesday. Under
mostly clear skies temps over the North Woods may be able to drop
into the lower 30s though with pressure gradient increasing acrs the
north with hipres building in winds should remain fairly well mixed
overnight.

Sfc ridge crests over the region on Wednesday morning with area
being under the influence of upper level zonal flow. Shortwave will
be entering New England on Wednesday but timing and magnitude of
wave varies with each model. GFS is much quicker and stronger with
NAM the least aggressive. Compromise is the EC and CMC and because
of this have introduced chc showers Wednesday afternoon acrs the
southwest while pushing east and slightly north during the day. How
far north measurable precip is able to get still remains up in the
air given the magnitude of dry air associated with high pressure at
the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface low will be skirting south of the waters and Nova Scotia on
Wednesday night as high pressure regains control over the area.
Showers look to continue over Downeast early Wednesday night but
have kept showers at high chance given the uncertainty on northward
movement of measurable rainfall. High pressure briefly regains
control on Thursday before next wave digs into New England from the
Great Lakes Thursday night.

hat it does after that is pretty much anyone/s guess with EC and CMC
developing a secondary low off of the coast which eventually takes
over while inland low slowly fills on Friday. Latest 12z EC develops
the secondary low further to the south than its prior run. The GFS
shifts secondary development further south with more of an inverted
trof setting up to our west. GFS ensemble falls more in line with
its operational run while CMC ensemble follows its operational one.
Latest NBM gave likely-categorical pops from Thursday evening though
the day on Saturday but have capped them at hichc pops with so much
uncertainty still to be figured out. Yet another synoptic system
will be moving up the eastern seaboard on Saturday but this may
remain far enough offshore so as not to bring much in the way of
showers to the area. Temperatures through the end of the week will
run just below normal under cloudy skies and showers off and on at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs with the
approaching rain this evening, then vsby with the rain tonight.
By Monday, MVFR in the morning, then quickly clearing to VFR by
the afternoon. S winds 5-10 kts tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts
Monday.

Downeast Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby tonight in rain. Then
IFR/LIFR in patchy to areas of fog through the rest of the
night. By Monday, morning fog is expected with IFR/LIFR
condition in the morning, then clearing to MVFR by the late
morning. S winds 5-10 kts tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts Monday.


SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts to
25kts Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night...MVFR/IFR cigs possible at BGR and BHB in
light showers. NE 5-15kts.

Thursday-Thursday night...VFR. E 5-15kts.

Friday...MVFR for Downeast terminals in light showers. E 10-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
tonight and Monday.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels through
Thursday. East winds will increase to marginal levels between
20-25kts late Thursday night into the day Friday. Seas will run
between 1-3ft into Wednesday afternoon and increase to near 4ft
over the outer waters on Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/MCW/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/MCW/Buster