Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261830
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
130 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Key Message:

- High Risk of Rip Currents extended through this evening

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a broad tough lifting
north across the Mid West. To the west, our upper level ridging is
beginning to near the Pacific coast. At the surface, a light and
variable flow is in place across South Texas. MSAS analysis
depicts a frontal boundary/high pressure surge across southeast
Texas. This boundary will drift a little further south through the
day before stalling, likely just north of the CWA. It`s possible
it makes it into our area but it will likely go unnoticed.

By tonight, we tap back into a easterly flow which will allow for
low level moisture to slightly increase. As a result, there is a
low chance for patchy fog across the Southern Coastal Plains late
tonight.

The biggest change to this forecast update was to add a slight
chance of showers across the Northern Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads on Wednesday. Forecast soundings show a steady
moistening between H7-H5 around the same time a H7 vort max is
tugged through the region. There`s a low chance we squeeze out
some showers through the day. However, we would need to overcome
some drier air in the lower levels.

Lastly, the High Risk of Rip Currents was extended through this
evening. While northeasterly flow will help alleviate our risk,
~9s swells have me concerned enough to extended the risk.
Gerling-Hanson plots at buoy 19 indicate these elevated swells
persisting through the day. It`s possible we see the risk extended
through the night depending on the trends we see today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Very little changes to the inherited Extended forecast package were
required this morning. Ridging aloft at the beginning of the period
will flatten out slightly by the end of the work week becoming more
quasi-zonal. Over the weekend, however, the flow aloft will become
southwesterly as a mid to upper level high pressure builds over
central Mexico and extends into the region. Although onshore flow is
expected to return to the area by late in the week, mostly rain-free
conditions are in store through early next week as PWATs remain at
around 1.0-1.2 inches, which is near normal for this time of year.
Moisture will be mostly confined to the surface through most of the
period, with dry mid levels aloft. This may prompt periods of patchy
fog development, beginning as early as Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

Rain chances may return to the forecast Monday to Tuesday next week
as a mid to upper level trough advances across the Plains, pushing
an associated frontal boundary through the area. By then, PWATs are
progged to increase to above normal levels, toping at 1.4-1.6 inches
ahead of the front Tuesday morning over the eastern half of the CWA.
For now, have maintained silent PoPs in the forecast for the
aforementioned timeframe, but this is still way out in the cycle,
and the forecast will be needing some fine tuning as it enters the
near term.

With onshore flow resuming, a warming trend can be expected through
the Extended. Very warm temperatures are in store over the weekend
into early next week ahead of the next cold front. Highs are
forecast to top in the upper 90s to nearly three digits out west
Sunday to Monday period as 850 mb temperatures warm above 20-25
degrees Celsius, which will be between 2 standard deviations and the
99th percentile for this time of year! (Yes, I agree, it is too
early for this!)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Isolated showers are possible at site COT and was represented by
adding VCSH in the TAF. Other sites have lower confidence but are
not completely out of the realm of possibility. This isn`t
expected to compromise visibility or ceilings at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Seas remain elevated this morning over the offshore waters with
seas ranging from 7-9 feet. This trend is expected through mid
day. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
1 PM. A weak to moderate north-northeasterly flow will develop
through the morning hours and continue through the middle of the
week. Winds will shift to the southeast Thursday into Thursday
night and continue through the weekend. Winds may increase to
moderate to occasionally strong levels at times this weekend over
the offshore waters as a surface low deepens over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  77  54  80 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          49  75  51  79 /   0  20   0   0
Laredo            56  79  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             54  79  52  83 /  10  10   0   0
Rockport          60  74  59  76 /   0  20   0   0
Cotulla           54  80  53  86 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        55  78  51  82 /  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       62  74  60  76 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...NP/92


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